KFUM vs Sarpsborg 08 Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

KFUM Arena Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM

Eliteserien

KFUM KFUM

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM

Round 6 Regular Season

Magnus Grødem - 33'

Mamour Ndiaye 90+7'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. KFUM 1–0 Sarpsborg 08. The result saw KFUM take the points. KFUM showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: KFUM's 1-0 victory exhibited a 59.3% structural deviation, rated as significant.
Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market evaluations.
xG expectations: Absence of xG data left expectations unquantified.
Event impact: Sarpsborg 08's red card profoundly altered second-half proceedings.
Red card distortion: The away red card introduced clear distortion in the second half.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

K. Hagenes

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Simon Ytterland

1st Assistant

E. Helgerud

2nd Assistant

E. Wisted

4th Official

J. Moesgaard

E. Sel

0.56

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.22

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 0 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

KFUM

40.73%

Draw

25.5%

Sarpsborg 08

33.76%

Movement

Changes since opening

KFUM

-53.99%

Draw

+20.41%

Sarpsborg 08

+33.57%

Team Power Ranking

11.32

21.38

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

KFUM

Sarpsborg 08

Power Score

11.32

21.38

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

KFUM — Opponent-weighted form score

Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) KFUM Sarpsborg 08

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

KFUM

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

KFUM ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.75

16.08

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

16.08

32.75

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

KFUM +1.68 Efficiency Index

Sarpsborg 08 -1.68 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

KFUM

Sarpsborg 08

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

KFUM ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sarpsborg 08

Created Set-piece attacking threat

KFUM Sarpsborg 08

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

KFUM Sarpsborg 08

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

KFUM

Sarpsborg 08

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

KFUM

Sarpsborg 08

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

KFUM Sarpsborg 08

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

KFUM Sarpsborg 08

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

KFUM

Sarpsborg 08

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Sarpsborg 08 had peak pressure around 90'.
Sarpsborg 08 started the game with stronger pressure.

KFUM Pressure Sarpsborg 08 Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Sarpsborg 08 reached the top pressure at 90' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

KFUM KFUM Home

4 matches

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-2

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 E. Ødegaard

2 D. Schneider

5 F. Berglie

19 E. Franke Saunes

14 H. Hoseth

7 R. Rasch

8 S. Hestnes

16 J. Lange Hjorth

28 M. Retsius Grødem

23 M. Wolff Eikrem

22 B. Kristensen

1 M. Ndiaye

21 A. Hiim

24 S. Rosted

4 B. Utvik

12 C. Niyukuri

6 A. Sher

8 S. Christiansen

17 N. Williams

33 A. Hansen

10 S. Sørli

11 D. Seland Karlsbakk

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 6 · Regular Season

Stadium :

KFUM Arena

Capacity :

1500

Attendance :

1491

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Øystein Simon Ytterland

Edvard Helgerud

Eirik Wisted

Kristoffer Hagenes

Statistics

Possession

KFUM

43%

Sarpsborg 08

57%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

1 Big Chances Created 2

7 Shots 6

42 Dangerous attacks 53

40 Possession 60

1 Corners 2

9 Free kicks 19

2 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1

2 Hit Woodwork 0

2 Injuries 2

5 Substitutions 5

60 Ball Safe 77

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46

7 Goal Attempts 3

26 Throwins 17

8 Dribble Attempts 13

4 Successful Dribbles 6

10 Goal Kicks 7

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2

1 Counter Attacks 2

68 Attacks 92

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 80

27 Successful Long Passes 27

354 Passes 532

265 Successful Passes 426

36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

8 Key Passes 4

74 Long Passes 67

Defensive

2 Saves 3

40 Duels Won 49

7 Interceptions 10

12 Tackles 6

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5

15 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

2 Offsides 5

20 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes

Manager ▼

J. Moesgaard Coach

Starting XI ▼

Emil Ødegaard Goalkeeper

7.35

Daniel Schneider Defender

6.82

Fredrik Berglie Defender

6.52

Eirik Saunes Defender

7.06

Robin Rasch Midfielder

6.56

Simen Hestnes Midfielder

7.02

Håkon Helland Hoseth Midfielder

6.56

Amin Nouri

Defender71'

6.33

Jonas Lange Hjorth Midfielder

6.68

Momodou Lion Njie

Defender90'

6.44

Bjørn Martin Kristensen Attacker

6.47

Bilal Njie

Attacker71'

6.72

Magnus Wolff Eikrem Attacker

6.67

Rasmus Eggen Vinge

Attacker61'

6.73

Magnus Grødem Attacker

6.5

Martin Tangen Vinjor

Midfielder46'

7.02

Substitutes ▼

Martin Tangen Vinjor

Midfielder46'

7.02

Rasmus Eggen Vinge

Attacker61'

6.73

Bilal Njie

Attacker71'

6.72

Amin Nouri

Defender71'

6.33

Momodou Lion Njie

Defender90'

6.44

Bench ▼

Krzysztof Bakowski Goalkeeper

6.97

Brage Skaret Defender

Isaiah Zion Kabi Skovsgaard Attacker

David Hickson Attacker

Referee : Kristoffer Hagenes