Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı Mon, 9 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kayserispor KAY
1 Winner 3
Trabzonspor TRA
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 5:00 PM
German Onugkha - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Bilal Bayazıt - 53' (Own Goal)
Paul Onuachu - 45+7' (P), 45+2'
Dorukhan Toköz 8' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor has finished, ending in a 3-1 victory for the visiting side. Trabzonspor established their dominance early, taking a 2-0 lead into halftime. The final outcome aligned perfectly with pre-match market expectations, which favored Trabzonspor with a 46.8% win probability compared to Kayserispor's 27.3% and a 25.9% chance of a draw. The result generated a significant performance deviation favoring Trabzonspor. Trabzonspor dictated the tempo of the contest, commanding 68% of the possession while restricting the home side to just 32%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it could not be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. The match's dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card shown to Kayserispor. This sending-off created a noticeable red card distortion that altered the flow of the game in the second half. Despite this disciplinary disruption, the overall efficiency shift remained strictly in line with expectations, allowing the stronger Trabzonspor squad to comfortably secure the away win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Trabzonspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Aydın

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Kısal

2nd Assistant

A. Demirbaş

4th Official

M. Tuğral

1st Assistant

Kayserispor J. Storbæk
J. Storbæk
VS
Trabzonspor F. Tekke
F. Tekke
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.05
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Antalyaspor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: D
Kocaelispor Rank: L
Galatasaray Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Samsunspor Rank: W
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kayserispor
27.26%
Draw
25.94%
Away Trabzonspor
46.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
26.67
72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
Power Score
26.67
72
League Position
17
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Trabzonspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kayserispor Trabzonspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Trabzonspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Trabzonspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.06
30.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.22
49.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kayserispor +1.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Trabzonspor -1.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Trabzonspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kayserispor Trabzonspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kayserispor Trabzonspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Trabzonspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kayserispor KAY Home
11 matches
Trabzonspor TRA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
2
Goals
13
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
13
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:06:53+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium :
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı
Capacity :
32864
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mehmet Kısal
Ayberk Demirbaş
C. Aydın
Mehmet Emin Tuğral

Statistics

Possession
KAY
38%
TRA
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 4
14 Shots 18
34 Dangerous attacks 51
32 Possession 68
6 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 7
4 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Throwins 11
8 Successful Dribbles 6
7 Goal Kicks 9
6 Successful Headers 15
15 Dribble Attempts 12
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1
0 Penalties 1
73 Ball Safe 101
1 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 109
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

12 Key Passes 15
84 Successful Passes Percentage 93
38 Successful Long Passes 27
244 Successful Passes 591
289 Passes 633
58 Long Passes 32
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 84

Defensive

5 Interceptions 3
12 Tackles 10
3 Saves 5

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 7
18 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

6 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joshua Brenet
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Bilal Bayazıt
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Burak Kapacak → Ramazan Civelek
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
João Mendes → Miguel Cardoso
10th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Chibuike Nwaiwu → Ernest Muci
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Salih Malkoçoğlu → Christ Inao Oulaï
7th Substitution
Event
German Onugkha
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
76'
Event
Okay Yokuşlu → Wagner Pina
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Umut Nayir → Felipe Augusto
5th Substitution
Event
Carlos Mané → Denis Makarov
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Görkem Sağlam → Furkan Soyalp
4th Substitution
74'
65'
Event
Anthony Nwakaeme → Oleksandr Zubkov
2nd Substitution
Event
German Onugkha → Fedor Chalov
1st Substitution
62'
53'
Event
Bilal Bayazıt
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
1ST-HALF
45+7'
Event
Paul Onuachu
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
45+2'
Event
Paul Onuachu
Header / 1st Goal
44'
Event
Felipe Augusto
Penalty cancelled
Event
Görkem Sağlam
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
20'
Event
Ramazan Civelek
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
19'
Event
Dorukhan Toköz
Foul / 1st Redcard
8'
Event
Dorukhan Toköz
Card adjusted
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Trabzonspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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