Kayserispor vs Rizespor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Kayserispor KAY
2 Winner 0
Rizespor Rizespor
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
László Bénes - 88'
Fedor Chalov - 79'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Kayserispor secured a 2-0 victory over Rizespor at home in a match that defied pre-game expectations. The first half ended goalless, with Rizespor holding 57% possession compared to Kayserispor's 43%, yet failing to break the deadlock. The second half saw Kayserispor capitalize on their opportunities, scoring twice to claim all three points despite Rizespor being viewed as the stronger team. No red cards were issued, and the game proceeded without major disruptions or tactical adjustments noted. Possession favored the visitors throughout, but Kayserispor's defensive resilience and clinical finishing proved decisive. This result highlights Kayserispor's ability to grind out wins against the run of play, maintaining structural integrity with minimal deviation. The outcome aligned closely with market sentiments, reflecting a disciplined performance from the home side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kayserispor exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments significantly impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Hasova

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Özay

1st Assistant

E. Sancaktar

2nd Assistant

S. Bahadır

4th Official

Kayserispor E. Moe
E. Moe
VS
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
0.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: L
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
Kasımpaşa Rank: L
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Samsunspor Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: D
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
Samsunspor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Antalyaspor Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kayserispor
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Rizespor
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.36
24.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kayserispor
Rizespor
Power Score
12.36
24.7
League Position
16
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kayserispor Rizespor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rizespor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.42
24.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.12
44.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kayserispor +2.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Rizespor -2.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Rizespor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rizespor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kayserispor Rizespor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kayserispor Rizespor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kayserispor
Rizespor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kayserispor
vs
Rizespor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kayserispor Rizespor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kayserispor 0.40
Rizespor 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kayserispor Rizespor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kayserispor 0.00
Rizespor 0.05
Kayserispor
Rizespor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAY had peak pressure around 87'.
  • Rizespor started the game with stronger pressure.
KAY Pressure Rizespor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KAY reached the top pressure at 87' (84.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kayserispor KAY Home
25 matches
Rizespor Rizespor Away
Match Record
11
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
11
Goals
29
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
29
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:04:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
B. Bayazit
Netherlands
25 B. Bayazit
J. Katongo
England
2 J. Katongo
S. Güler
Germany
6 S. Güler
S. Denswil
Suriname
4 S. Denswil
L. Carole
France
23 L. Carole
Y. Aït Bennasser
Substitution
Morocco
15 Y. Aït Bennasser
D. Toköz
Substitution
Türkiye
24 D. Toköz
D. Makarov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Makarov
F. Soyalp
Substitution
Türkiye
33 F. Soyalp
M. Nunes Cardoso
Portugal
7 M. Nunes Cardoso
G. Onugkha
Russia
9 G. Onugkha
Pitch
Y. Fofana
France
75 Y. Fofana
C. Højer Nielsen
Denmark
5 C. Højer Nielsen
M. Sagnan
France
27 M. Sagnan
A. Mocsi
Hungary
4 A. Mocsi
M. Pala
Substitution
Türkiye
54 M. Pala
G. Papanikolaou
Substitution
Greece
6 G. Papanikolaou
V. Mihăilă
Romania
7 V. Mihăilă
Q. Laçi
Albania
20 Q. Laçi
I. Olawoyin
Substitution
Nigeria
10 I. Olawoyin
A. Awokoya-Mebude
Substitution
Scotland
17 A. Awokoya-Mebude
A. Sowe
Substitution
Gambia
9 A. Sowe

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı
Capacity :
32864
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gürcan Hasova
Süleyman Özay
Esat Sancaktar
Süleyman Bahadır

Statistics

Possession
KAY
47%
Rizespor
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
17 Shots 12
42 Dangerous attacks 35
43 Possession 57
8 Corners 6
16 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

11 Goal Attempts 5
6 Successful Dribbles 16
6 Goal Kicks 10
21 Throwins 16
77 Ball Safe 80
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
10 Successful Headers 11
11 Dribble Attempts 28
2 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

81 Attacks 80

Possession

178 Successful Passes 272
249 Passes 337
71 Successful Passes Percentage 81
14 Key Passes 7
62 Long Passes 59
33 Successful Long Passes 26
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

50 Duels Won 52
18 Tackles 11
5 Interceptions 2
1 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 15
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

25
Bilal Bayazıt
Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper
6.9
2
J. Katongo
J. Katongo Defender
6.31
4
Stefano Denswil
Stefano Denswil Defender
6.7
6
Semih Güler
Semih Güler Defender
6.7
23
Lionel Carole
Lionel Carole Defender
6.58
7
Miguel Cardoso
Miguel Cardoso Midfielder
6.94
15
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder
6.79
8
László Bénes
László Bénes
Midfielder58'
6.98
18
Denis Makarov
Denis Makarov Midfielder
6.62
63
Fedor Chalov
Fedor Chalov
Attacker73'
6.62
24
Dorukhan Toköz
Dorukhan Toköz Midfielder
6.48
61
Görkem Sağlam
Görkem Sağlam
Midfielder86'
6.56
33
Furkan Soyalp
Furkan Soyalp Midfielder
6.77
10
João Mendes
João Mendes
Midfielder58'
6.91
9
German Onugkha
German Onugkha Attacker
6.82
Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

75
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
6.87
4
Attila Mocsi
Attila Mocsi Defender
6.69
5
Casper Højer
Casper Højer Defender
6.78
27
Modibo Sagnan
Modibo Sagnan Defender
6.84
54
Mithat Pala
Mithat Pala Defender
6.7
18
Muhamed Buljubasic
Muhamed Buljubasic
Midfielder84'
6.58
6
Giannis Papanikolaou
Giannis Papanikolaou Midfielder
6.67
19
Frantzdy Pierrot
Frantzdy Pierrot
Attacker83'
6.48
7
Valentin Mihăilă
Valentin Mihăilă Midfielder
6.79
10
Ibrahim Olawoyin
Ibrahim Olawoyin Midfielder
6.79
37
Taha Şahin
Taha Şahin
Defender84'
6.83
17
Adedire Mebude
Adedire Mebude Midfielder
6.92
99
Emrecan Bulut
Emrecan Bulut
Attacker67'
6.7
20
Qazim Laci
Qazim Laci Midfielder
7.2
9
Ali Sowe
Ali Sowe Attacker
6.71
11
Halil Dervişoğlu
Halil Dervişoğlu
Attacker83'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
German Onugkha
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
88'
Event
László Bénes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Görkem Sağlam → Dorukhan Toköz
9th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Muhamed Buljubasic → Mithat Pala
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Taha Şahin → Ibrahim Olawoyin
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Halil Dervişoğlu → Ali Sowe
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Frantzdy Pierrot → Giannis Papanikolaou
6th Substitution
Event
Fedor Chalov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Fedor Chalov → Denis Makarov
4th Substitution
73'
67'
Event
Emrecan Bulut → Adedire Mebude
3rd Substitution
Event
László Bénes → Youssef Aït Bennasser
1st Substitution
58'
Event
João Mendes → Furkan Soyalp
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Youssef Aït Bennasser
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Modibo Sagnan
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Valentin Mihăilă
Goal disallowed
36'
Event
Valentin Mihăilă
2nd Yellowcard
Event
J. Katongo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'

CONCLUSION

Kayserispor's 2-0 win over Rizespor underscores their home strength, overcoming Rizespor's possession dominance and stronger billing. The goalless first half gave way to second-half efficiency from the hosts, who defended stoutly and struck decisively. With no red cards or key events altering the flow, the minimal deviation and market alignment affirm a straightforward execution of gameplan. This result boosts Kayserispor's momentum while exposing Rizespor's conversion issues, setting up intriguing prospects for both in the league.

Kayserispor vs Rizespor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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