Kayserispor vs Fenerbahçe Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey

Kadir Has Şehir Stadı Sat, 11 Apr - 5:00 PM

Super Lig

Kayserispor KAY

Fenerbahçe FEN

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Talisca - 87', 60'

Dorgeles Nene - 62'

N'Golo Kanté - 45+1'

CONTEXT

The match between Kayserispor and Fenerbahce is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-4 to the visitors. Fenerbahce delivered a dominant display that produced a significant deviation in their favor from pre-match expectations, where they had been viewed as the stronger side likely to prevail. The visitors led 1-0 at half-time and added three more goals after the break, securing a comprehensive victory that reflected their status as the clear favorite beforehand. Kayserispor held 39 percent possession while Fenerbahce controlled 61 percent, allowing the away team to dictate the flow of the contest. With no xG data recorded, the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout. The outcome proved fully consistent with the pre-match projection for a Fenerbahce success, and no red cards or major disruptive events altered the course of play. Overall the result underlined the gap between the two sides on the day.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Yılmaz

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Çiçek

2nd Assistant

A. Usta

1st Assistant

F. Tokail

4th Official

E. Moe

D. Tedesco

0.9

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.35

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

8 - 7 - 24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Kayserispor

15.3%

Draw

20.98%

Fenerbahçe

63.72%

Movement

Changes since opening

Kayserispor

+14.81%

Draw

+19.07%

Fenerbahçe

-33.88%

Team Power Ranking

15.31

42.01

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe

Power Score

15.31

42.01

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Kayserispor — Opponent-weighted form score

Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kayserispor Fenerbahçe

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Kayserispor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fenerbahçe

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

34.49

32.62

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

32.62

34.49

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Kayserispor +0.19 Efficiency Index

Fenerbahçe -0.19 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kayserispor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Fenerbahçe

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Kayserispor Fenerbahçe

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Kayserispor Fenerbahçe

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Kayserispor Fenerbahçe

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Kayserispor Fenerbahçe

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

FEN had peak pressure around 48'.
FEN started the game with stronger pressure.

KAY Pressure FEN Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: FEN reached the top pressure at 48' (93.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kayserispor KAY Home

39 matches

Fenerbahçe FEN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-41

Goal Difference

+41

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:11:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

25 B. Bayazit

2 J. Katongo

6 S. Güler

4 S. Denswil

30 J. Brenet

15 Y. Aït Bennasser

18 D. Makarov

33 F. Soyalp

24 D. Toköz

7 M. Nunes Cardoso

63 F. Chalov

31 E. Santana de Moraes

3 A. Brown

24 J. Oosterwolde

37 M. Škriniar

27 N. Cabral Semedo

6 M. Guendouzi Olié

17 N. Kanté

9 M. Aktürkoğlu

94 A. Souza Conceição

45 N. Dorgeles

26 S. Cherif

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Kadir Has Şehir Stadı

Capacity :

32864

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Samet Çiçek

Anıl Usta

A. Yılmaz

Fatih Tokail

Statistics

Possession

KAY

42%

FEN

58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4

0 Big Chances Created 2

7 Shots 8

49 Dangerous attacks 38

39 Possession 61

4 Corners 5

11 Free kicks 19

3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 8

21 Throwins 12

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61

7 Successful Headers 7

79 Ball Safe 86

5 Dribble Attempts 18

2 Successful Dribbles 11

7 Goal Attempts 10

0 Hit Woodwork 1

0 Injuries 2

0 Assists 3

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 120

Possession

54 Long Passes 42

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

357 Passes 555

280 Successful Passes 490

31 Successful Long Passes 20

78 Successful Passes Percentage 88

9 Key Passes 10

Defensive

13 Tackles 7

6 Interceptions 7

3 Saves 3

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 4

17 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

19 Fouls 11

1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : A. Yılmaz

Manager ▼

E. Moe Coach

Starting XI ▼

Bilal Bayazıt Goalkeeper

J. Katongo Defender

Carlos Mané

Midfielder63'

Stefano Denswil Defender

Semih Güler Defender

Joshua Brenet Defender

Miguel Cardoso Midfielder

Youssef Aït Bennasser Midfielder

Görkem Sağlam

Midfielder63'

Denis Makarov Midfielder

Ramazan Civelek

Midfielder46'

Dorukhan Toköz Midfielder

László Bénes

Midfielder63'

Furkan Soyalp Midfielder

Fedor Chalov Attacker

German Onugkha

Attacker82'

Substitutes ▼

Ramazan Civelek

Midfielder46'

László Bénes

Midfielder63'

Carlos Mané

Midfielder63'

Görkem Sağlam

Midfielder63'

German Onugkha

Attacker82'

Bench ▼

Onurcan Piri Goalkeeper

João Mendes Midfielder

Burak Kapacak Midfielder

Sam Mather Attacker

Indrit Tuci Attacker

Referee : A. Yılmaz