Katowice vs Nieciecza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion ul. Bukowa Sun, 3 May - 10:15 AM
Ekstraklasa
Katowice Katowice
5 Winner 1
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Full Time Sun, 3 May 10:15 AM
Round 31 Regular Season
Eman Markovic - 64', 31'
Mateusz Kowalczyk - 58'
Ilya Shkurin - 22'
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz - 18' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Kamil Zapolnik - 42'

CONTEXT

Katowice delivered a stunning 5-1 home victory over Nieciecza, asserting dominance despite controlling just 43% of possession compared to the visitors' 57%. The hosts raced to a 3-1 lead by halftime, showcasing ruthless efficiency in front of goal, before piling on two more strikes in the second period to seal a comprehensive triumph. As the pre-designated stronger side, Katowice's performance marked a significant structural deviation, exceeding expectations with clinical finishing that turned limited opportunities into a rout. Nieciecza, unable to capitalize on their territorial advantage, struggled defensively throughout, allowing Katowice to dictate the game's tempo at key moments. This result underscores Katowice's attacking prowess and resilience, propelling them forward with momentum intact. No red cards or major disruptions altered the flow, allowing pure footballing quality to prevail.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Katowice's 5-1 win exhibited a significant 39.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result fully aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluable without recorded metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Malec

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Gajda

2nd Assistant

M. Obukowicz

1st Assistant

M. Kuropatwa

4th Official

Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
VS
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 59 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Katowice
60.5%
Draw
21.14%
Away Nieciecza
18.36%

Movement

Changes since opening
Katowice
-35.49%
Draw
+18.32%
Nieciecza
+17.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.44
47.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Katowice
Nieciecza
Power Score
65.44
47.25
League Position
3
18
Global Rank
315
737

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Katowice Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.33
36.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.40
32.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Katowice -0.38 Efficiency Index
vs
Nieciecza +0.38 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Nieciecza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Katowice Nieciecza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Katowice Nieciecza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Nieciecza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Katowice
vs
Nieciecza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Katowice Nieciecza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Katowice 0.32
Nieciecza 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Katowice Nieciecza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Katowice 0.01
Nieciecza 0.13
Katowice
Nieciecza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Katowice had peak pressure around 24'.
  • Nieciecza started the game with stronger pressure.
Katowice Pressure Nieciecza Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Katowice reached the top pressure at 24' (99.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Katowice Katowice Home
1 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
3
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Kudła
Poland
1 D. Kudła
A. Czerwiński
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 A. Jędrych
L. Klemenz
Poland
6 L. Klemenz
E. Jirka
Substitution
Slovakia
97 E. Jirka
S. Milewski
Substitution
Poland
22 S. Milewski
M. Kowalczyk
Substitution
Poland
77 M. Kowalczyk
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
E. Marković
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Marković
I. Shkurin
Substitution
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
L. Masoero Masi
Substitution
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
G. Isik
Germany
29 G. Isik
D. Hilbrycht
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
I. Strzałek
Substitution
Poland
86 I. Strzałek
M. Ambrosiewicz
Substitution
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
R. Boboc
Romania
27 R. Boboc
J. Jiménez Núñez
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
M. Faßbender
Substitution
Germany
7 M. Faßbender
K. Zapolnik
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 10:15 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion ul. Bukowa
Capacity :
7455
Attendance :
13170
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Paweł Malec
Michał Gajda
Michal Obukowicz
Maciej Kuropatwa

Statistics

Possession
Katowice
44%
Nieciecza
56%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 7
38 Dangerous attacks 75
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 9
9 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 10
3 Successful Dribbles 5
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
12 Goal Kicks 4
11 Throwins 15
2 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
3 Assists 1
80 Ball Safe 88
1 Injuries 0
12 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
70 Attacks 124

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 78
11 Key Passes 13
225 Successful Passes 304
20 Successful Long Passes 24
50 Long Passes 51
298 Passes 389
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

9 Tackles 10
1 Saves 3
35 Duels Won 40
10 Interceptions 8

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 29
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

1
Dawid Kudla
Dawid Kudla Goalkeeper
6.71
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych Defender
7.04
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
7.04
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
6.63
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
6.77
11
Adrian Blad
Adrian Blad
Midfielder81'
6.61
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.95
77
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Mateusz Kowalczyk Midfielder
6.77
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak
Midfielder66'
6.76
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
6.99
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak
Midfielder66'
6.62
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
2
6.82
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder76'
6.75
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
7.45
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
6.53
21
Jakub Kokosiński
Jakub Kokosiński
Attacker76'
6.53
Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
6.99
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
6.81
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
6.5
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev
Defender46'
6.45
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik Defender
6.73
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
6.85
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc Midfielder
6.68
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
6.82
53
Andrzej Trubeha
Andrzej Trubeha
Attacker84'
6.76
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek Midfielder
6.62
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero
Midfielder58'
6.51
7
Morgan Faßbender
Morgan Faßbender Attacker
6.59
8
Rafal Kurzawa
Rafal Kurzawa
Midfielder58'
6.87
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
6.72
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov
Attacker67'
6.74
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Andrzej Trubeha
Goal disallowed
84'
Event
Andrzej Trubeha → Maciej Ambrosiewicz
10th Substitution
Event
Adrian Blad → Sebastian Milewski
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Jakub Kokosiński → Ilya Shkurin
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Eman Markovic
8th Substitution
76'
67'
Event
Ivan Durdov → Jesús Jiménez
6th Substitution
Event
Damian Rasak → Mateusz Kowalczyk
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Mateusz Wdowiak → Erik Jirka
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Eman Markovic
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
64'
Event
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
58'
58'
Event
Rafal Kurzawa → Morgan Faßbender
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Sergio Guerrero → Igor Strzalek
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Artem Putivtsev → Lucas Masoero
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Eman Markovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
31'
Event
Gabriel Isik
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ilya Shkurin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'
Event
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
18'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Andrzej Trubeha scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Update Update
Goal! Andrzej Trubeha scores, making it 5-2.
89
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Andrzej Trubeha.
88
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Kurzawa takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
84
Update Update
Andrzej Trubeha is on, and Maciej Ambrosiewicz is off.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Adrian Blad comes on for Sebastian Milewski.
77
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Wedrychowski takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Marcel Wedrychowski replaces Eman Markovic.
76
Update Update
Jakub Kokosinski comes on for Ilia Shkurin.
75
Attempt Attempt
Damian Hilbrycht takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Durdov takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Marcin Wasielewski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Guerrero takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Isik takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Ivan Durdov is on, and Jesus Jimenez is off.
66
Update Update
Damian Rasak replaces Mateusz Kowalczyk.
66
Update Update
Mateusz Wdowiak replaces Erik Jirka.
65
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Andrzej Trubeha.
64
Attempt Attempt
Eman Markovic takes a left-footed shot and scores.
60
Update Update
Radu Boboc's header is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Kowalczyk scores with a right-footed shot.
58
Update Update
Sergio Guerrero replaces Igor Strzalek.
58
Update Update
Rafal Kurzawa comes on for Morgan Fabender.
55
Attempt Attempt
Maciej Ambrosiewicz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ilia Shkurin takes a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Artem Putivtsev comes on for Lucas Masoero.
42
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Zapolnik takes a right-footed shot and scores.
42
Update Update
Goal! Kamil Zapolnik scores, making it 3-1.
41
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Kowalczyk's right-footed shot is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Eman Markovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
31
Attempt Attempt
Eman Markovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
31
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Jimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Damian Hilbrycht takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ilia Shkurin's header is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ilia Shkurin scores with a right-footed shot.
18
Update Update
Own goal by Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz puts the score at 1-0.
18
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Jedrych takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
13
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Zapolnik attempts a header but misses the shot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz attempts a header but misses the shot.
9
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Fabender's right-footed shot is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Igor Strzalek's right-footed shot is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Masoero takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Jedrych attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Ilia Shkurin takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Katowice's emphatic 5-1 thrashing of Nieciecza highlighted their superiority as the stronger outfit, converting a 3-1 halftime edge into an unassailable lead through sharp second-half execution. With 43% possession, they maximized every chance, exposing Nieciecza's defensive frailties despite the visitors' ball dominance. This significant deviation from norms reinforces Katowice's credentials, blending attacking flair with tactical discipline. Nieciecza's inability to convert possession into threats proved costly, leaving them well beaten. The clean contest, free of reds or interruptions, showcased football at its decisive best, boosting Katowice's campaign trajectory.

Katowice vs Nieciecza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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