Katowice vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion ul. Bukowa Sun, 17 May - 12:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Katowice Katowice
Versus
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 12:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Katowice host Jagiellonia Białystok in Ekstraklasa (Regular Season) at Stadion ul. Bukowa. Domestically, Katowice sit 6th in the table while Jagiellonia Białystok are 2th. Power ranking favours Jagiellonia Białystok by 0.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Katowice, 6th in the Ekstraklasa, host 2nd-placed Jagiellonia Białystok at Stadion ul. Bukowa.
  • Form: Katowice lead slightly in form scores at 27.89 against Jagiellonia's 27.39.
  • Squad: No specific squad updates or injuries detailed for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxy data with no xG available for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG data absent, relying on basic power and form scores.
  • Market: Katowice 37.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25% (Δ+0%) | Jagiellonia Białystok 37.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
VS
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 D
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 66 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Katowice
37.12%
Draw
24.99%
Away Jagiellonia Białystok
37.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.45
66.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Katowice
Jagiellonia Białystok
Power Score
65.45
66.32
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
321
294

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Katowice Jagiellonia Białystok

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Katowice Katowice Home
3 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:07:31+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Straczek
12 R. Straczek
A. Czerwiński
30 A. Czerwiński
M. Kuusk
4 M. Kuusk
M. Berntsen Olsen
14 M. Berntsen Olsen
E. Jirka
97 E. Jirka
S. Milewski
22 S. Milewski
M. Kowalczyk
77 M. Kowalczyk
M. Wasielewski
23 M. Wasielewski
E. Marković
15 E. Marković
I. Shkurin
80 I. Shkurin
B. Nowak
27 B. Nowak
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
50 S. Abramowicz
G. Serrão Montóia
23 G. Serrão Montóia
Y. Kobayashi
4 Y. Kobayashi
B. Cardoso Vital
13 B. Cardoso Vital
N. Wojtuszek
15 N. Wojtuszek
S. Lozano Lluch
21 S. Lozano Lluch
T. Romanczuk
6 T. Romanczuk
K. Szmyt
77 K. Szmyt
J. Imaz Ballesté
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
A. Pozo Pozo
7 A. Pozo Pozo
A. Pululu
10 A. Pululu

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion ul. Bukowa
Capacity :
7455
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
6.98
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.95
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
6.99
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
6.94
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Centre Forward
6.53
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
7.43
4
Märten Kuusk
Märten Kuusk Centre Back
6.79
14
M. Olsen
M. Olsen Left Back
6.53
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Central Midfield
6.78
77
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Mateusz Kowalczyk Central Midfield
6.78
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Right Back
6.63

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
6.9
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Centre Forward
7.06
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Left Back
6.73
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Defensive Midfield
7.05
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Right Wing
6.85
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Attacking Midfield
7.29
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Right Back
7.02
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Right Back
6.91
21
Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano Defensive Midfield
6.92
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Left Back
6.95
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Left Wing
6.6

CONCLUSION

Jagiellonia Białystok enter as marginal favorites thanks to their superior league position and power score, but Katowice's home advantage and form nudge keep the contest finely poised. With limited advanced data, focus shifts to core strengths: Jagiellonia's consistency versus Katowice's venue boost. Expect a tactical affair where midfield control and chance conversion decide the outcome, potentially favoring the visitors' slight edge in a low-scoring draw or narrow win. Both sides' proxy set piece reliance adds unpredictability, demanding disciplined defending.

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Białystok preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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