Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Sun, 3 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
1 – 1
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Full Time Sun, 3 May 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Adrian Benedyczak - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Dan Agyei - 23'

CONTEXT

Kasimpasa and Kocaelispor played out a 1-1 draw in their Turkish Super Lig encounter, with the scoreline mirroring the halftime result of 1-1. Kasimpasa, deemed the stronger team, controlled possession at 61% compared to Kocaelispor's 39%, yet failed to capitalize on their territorial advantage. The home side pressed forward but lacked clinical finishing, allowing the visitors to hold firm defensively. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the second half saw no tactical adjustments noted. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation for Kasimpasa, who underperformed relative to pre-match assessments where they held a clear edge. Kocaelispor's resilience earned them a valuable point away from home, highlighting their counter-attacking threat. Both teams displayed solid organization, but neither could find a winner in a match characterized by even scoring chances despite the possession disparity. The draw leaves Kasimpasa with mixed feelings after dominating without decisive impact.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kasimpasa showed a significant 71.3% structural deviation from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing xG data.
  • Market alignment: Final draw outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without xG data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards caused no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Y. Kol

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Mazlum

1st Assistant

Y. Susuz

2nd Assistant

A. Şen

4th Official

Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
VS
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 W
Göztepe Rank: 73 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 L
Göztepe Rank: 72 D
Galatasaray Rank: 88 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 D
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 L
Konyaspor Rank: 70 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kasımpaşa
46.2%
Draw
28.66%
Away Kocaelispor
25.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kasımpaşa
+38.96%
Draw
-61.81%
Kocaelispor
+22.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.64
57.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kasımpaşa
Kocaelispor
Power Score
65.64
57.07
League Position
13
11
Global Rank
311
334

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kasımpaşa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kasımpaşa
Kocaelispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kasımpaşa
vs
Kocaelispor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Kocaelispor 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kasımpaşa Kocaelispor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kasımpaşa 0.00
Kocaelispor 0.00
Kasımpaşa
Kocaelispor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kocaelispor had peak pressure around 17'.
  • Kocaelispor started the game with stronger pressure.
Kasımpaşa Pressure Kocaelispor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kocaelispor reached the top pressure at 17' (72.06).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Home
1 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T16:30:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Gianniotis
Greece
1 A. Gianniotis
C. Winck Neto
Substitution
Brazil
2 C. Winck Neto
M. Ben Ouannes
Tunisia
12 M. Ben Ouannes
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
N. Opoku
Ghana
20 N. Opoku
C. Ribeiro Dias
Portugal
8 C. Ribeiro Dias
K. Çörekçi
Türkiye
22 K. Çörekçi
İ. Kahveci
Türkiye
71 İ. Kahveci
K. Demirbay
Germany
26 K. Demirbay
F. Diabaté
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
A. Benedyczak
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Türkiye
83 S. Öztaşdelen
M. Haïdara
Mali
21 M. Haïdara
S. Dursun
Germany
19 S. Dursun
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
A. Oğuz
Substitution
Türkiye
22 A. Oğuz
H. Keita
Mali
8 H. Keita
M. Da Silva Cafumana
Angola
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
M. Susoho
Spain
20 M. Susoho
J. Nonge Boende
Substitution
Belgium
98 J. Nonge Boende
D. Agyei
Substitution
England
7 D. Agyei
C. Keles
Austria
70 C. Keles

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Capacity :
14234
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mehmet Salih Mazlum
Yasin Kol
Yusuf Susuz
Alpaslan Şen

Statistics

Possession
Kasımpaşa
59%
Kocaelispor
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 1
41 Dangerous attacks 24
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31
4 Successful Headers 7
17 Throwins 13
1 Assists 1
1 Successful Dribbles 4
8 Goal Kicks 10
7 Dribble Attempts 13
1 Substitutions 3

Attacking

91 Attacks 48
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
428 Passes 270
6 Key Passes 3
361 Successful Passes 213
59 Long Passes 49
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
30 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

35 Duels Won 34
13 Tackles 9
5 Interceptions 9
0 Saves 3

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 17
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Gianniotis
Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper
6.74
2
Cláudio Winck
Cláudio Winck Defender
6.76
21
Godfried Frimpong
Godfried Frimpong
Defender90'
6.51
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
6.81
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes Defender
6.87
20
Nicholas Opoku
Nicholas Opoku Defender
6.73
8
Cafú
Cafú Midfielder
6.65
22
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi
Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi Midfielder
6.78
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay Midfielder
7.04
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
6.68
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
7.16
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
7.02
Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
6.7
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Defender
6.75
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Defender
6.84
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
6.96
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas
Attacker63'
6.55
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
6.79
14
Show
Show Midfielder
6.81
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Midfielder
6.57
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
6.57
18
Furkan Gedik
Furkan Gedik
Attacker89'
6.53
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş Attacker
6.55
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Attacker
6.62
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl
Defender57'
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Godfried Frimpong → Cláudio Winck
4th Substitution
90'
89'
Event
Furkan Gedik → Dan Agyei
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Rigoberto Rivas → Ahmet Oğuz
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Ahmet Oğuz
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
57'
Event
Tayfur Bingöl → Joseph Nonge
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
Dan Agyei
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Adrian Benedyczak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Godfried Frimpong is on, and Claudio Winck Neto is off.
89
Update Update
Furkan Gedik comes on for Daniel Agyei.
87
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Winck Neto takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Kerem Demirbay takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Rigoberto Rivas is on, and Ahmet Oguz is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Carlos Miguel Ribeiro Dias, Cafu, is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
56
Update Update
Tayfur Bingol is on, and Joseph Nonge Boende is off.
49
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Nonge Boende takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Winck Neto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Serdar Dursun takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Kerem Demirbay takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Claudio Winck Neto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Agyei takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Can Keles misses with a right-footed shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Agyei attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Benedyczak takes a shot with his right foot and scores.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw underscores Kasimpasa's inability to convert possession dominance into goals against a stubborn Kocaelispor defense. Despite being the stronger team on paper, the home side's significant deviation highlights finishing woes in a game level at halftime. Kocaelispor's disciplined approach secured a point, proving effective on the road. With no red cards or disruptions, the result reflects balanced execution rather than chaos. This outcome may prompt Kasimpasa to refine their attack, while Kocaelispor gains momentum from the share. Overall, a fair reflection of a competitive stalemate where control did not equate to victory.

Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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