Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
Versus
Galatasaray GAL
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

At Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasimpasa host Galatasaray in a Super Lig regular season fixture for the 2025/2026 campaign. The visitors top the table in first place, while the home side languish in 14th, highlighting a clear disparity in standings. Galatasaray's power score of 86.52 dwarfs Kasimpasa's 65.05, granting them a substantial 21.5-point edge that signals structural superiority. Form metrics reinforce this, with Galatasaray's 33.72 rating far exceeding the hosts' 15.94, suggesting momentum lies firmly with the leaders. Lacking recent outing details, focus shifts to overall capabilities, where Galatasaray's prowess in open play and potential set-piece threats could overwhelm. Kasimpasa must harness home advantage to disrupt, yet the away team's efficiency and transition strengths pose significant hurdles. Limited advanced data tempers deeper analysis, but baseline expectations favor the champions-elect in this uneven contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Galatasaray leads the Super Lig by a wide margin in first place over Kasimpasa's 14th position with a 21.5-point power score advantage.
  • Form: Galatasaray's form score of 33.72 significantly outpaces Kasimpasa's 15.94.
  • Squad: Galatasaray's higher power score of 86.52 indicates a stronger overall squad compared to Kasimpasa's 65.05.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams in this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided for Kasimpasa or Galatasaray.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data for both teams uses low-confidence proxies with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable as the add-on is not enabled for this fixture.
  • Market: Kasımpaşa 27.8% (Δ+2.1%) | Draw 26.7% (Δ+0.2%) | Galatasaray 45.5% (Δ-2.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
VS
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 L
Alanyaspor Rank: 69 W
Göztepe Rank: 74 D
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Samsunspor Rank: 72 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 D
Göztepe Rank: 74 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 21
21
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kasımpaşa
27.84%
Draw
26.66%
Away Galatasaray
45.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kasımpaşa
+2.12%
Draw
+0.23%
Galatasaray
-2.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.05
86.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray
Power Score
65.05
86.52
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
331
26

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kasımpaşa Galatasaray

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Home
33 matches
Galatasaray GAL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
21
5
Draws
5
21
Losses
7
Goals
45
Goals Scored
71
71
Goals Conceded
45
-26
Goal Difference
+26

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:04:48+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Yanar
25 A. Yanar
E. Taşdemir
33 E. Taşdemir
R. Nascimiento Franca
50 R. Nascimiento Franca
A. Arous
4 A. Arous
G. Owusu Frimpong
21 G. Owusu Frimpong
A. Baldursson
16 A. Baldursson
K. Demirbay
26 K. Demirbay
İ. Kahveci
71 İ. Kahveci
F. Diabaté
34 F. Diabaté
M. Ben Ouannes
12 M. Ben Ouannes
A. Benedyczak
19 A. Benedyczak
Pitch
U. Çakır
1 U. Çakır
I. Jakobs
4 I. Jakobs
A. Bardakcı
42 A. Bardakcı
D. Sánchez Mina
6 D. Sánchez Mina
R. Sallai
7 R. Sallai
İ. Gündoğan
20 İ. Gündoğan
L. Torreira Di Pascua
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
B. Yılmaz
53 B. Yılmaz
Y. Akgün
11 Y. Akgün
L. Sané
10 L. Sané
M. Icardi Rivero
9 M. Icardi Rivero

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Capacity :
14234
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

25
Ali Emre Yanar
Ali Emre Yanar Goalkeeper
6.25
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Centre Forward
7.13
12
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
Mortadha Ben Ouanes Left Wing
6.87
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Defensive Midfield
6.7
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Left Back
6.78
21
Godfried Frimpong
Godfried Frimpong Left Back
6.5
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Attacking Midfield
6.68
50
Rodrigo Becão
Rodrigo Becão Right Back
6.4
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay Defensive Midfield
7.04
33
E. Taşdemir
E. Taşdemir Right Back
6.36
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Right Wing
7.19

Starting XI ▼

1
Uğurcan Çakır
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper
7.53
9
Mauro Icardi
Mauro Icardi Centre Forward
7.02
6
Davinson Sánchez
Davinson Sánchez Right Back
6.94
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai Right Back
7.07
10
Leroy Sané
Leroy Sané Right Wing
7.21
34
Lucas Torreira
Lucas Torreira Defensive Midfield
7.05
42
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Left Back
7.06
53
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Barış Alper Yılmaz Left Wing
7.22
20
İlkay Gündoğan
İlkay Gündoğan Defensive Midfield
7
4
Ismail Jakobs
Ismail Jakobs Left Back
6.67
11
Yunus Akgün
Yunus Akgün Attacking Midfield
7.21

CONCLUSION

Galatasaray's commanding position atop the Super Lig, coupled with their 21.5-point power edge and superior form, positions them as heavy favorites against 14th-placed Kasimpasa. The hosts face an uphill battle at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, relying on defensive resilience and counter-attacks to challenge the leaders. While set-piece and efficiency insights are sparse, Galatasaray's overall quality in transitions and squad depth should prevail. Kasimpasa's home crowd may inspire, but statistical gaps suggest a straightforward away victory, extending the champions' dominance in the 2025/2026 season.

Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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