Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Ukrajina Sat, 23 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Karpaty Karpaty
1 Winner 2
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Full Time Sat, 23 May 3:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Bruninho - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Andrija Janjić - 89'
Roman Vantukh - 73'

CONTEXT

The encounter saw Karpaty hosting Zorya Luhansk in what turned out to be a competitive fixture. Karpaty managed to score first and led 1-0 at halftime. Zorya Luhansk responded strongly after the interval, netting two goals to claim the win by a 1-2 scoreline. The away team enjoyed greater possession at 58 percent while the home side had 42 percent. As the designated stronger team, Zorya Luhansk demonstrated resilience by overturning the deficit. The match proceeded without any red cards being issued to either team. This outcome reflected the visitors' capacity to adapt and dominate proceedings in the latter stages of the game, ultimately securing the three points on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk was the deviation team in a significant deviation of 69.1 percent.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the pre-match setup.
  • xG alignment: No xG values were recorded so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data remained unavailable throughout the match.
  • Event impact: Zorya Luhansk overturned a 1-0 halftime deficit to win 1-2.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Afanasiev

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Zaytsev

4th Official

Ukraine

I. Rybchenko

1st Assistant

Ukraine

D. Romanov

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 17.73
Yellow cards / match 3.34
Red cards / match 0.15
Penalties / match 0.27
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
VS
Zorya Luhansk V. Skripnik
V. Skripnik
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres Rank: 47 W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 D
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 42 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 48 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 D
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Veres Rank: 46 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Karpaty
41.99%
Draw
27.15%
Away Zorya Luhansk
30.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Karpaty
+40.15%
Draw
+16.72%
Zorya Luhansk
-56.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.41
55.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
Power Score
54.41
55.28
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
649
625

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Karpaty Zorya Luhansk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.83
23.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.71
25.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Karpaty +0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Zorya Luhansk -0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Karpaty Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Karpaty Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Karpaty
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Karpaty Zorya Luhansk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Karpaty 0.24
Zorya Luhansk 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Karpaty Zorya Luhansk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Karpaty 0.04
Zorya Luhansk 0.03
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Zorya Luhansk had peak pressure around 63'.
  • Zorya Luhansk started the game with stronger pressure.
Karpaty Pressure Zorya Luhansk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zorya Luhansk reached the top pressure at 63' (70.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Karpaty Karpaty Home
31 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Away
Match Record
8
Wins
15
8
Draws
8
15
Losses
8
Goals
36
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
36
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:01:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
D. Miroshnichenko
Substitution
Ukraine
11 D. Miroshnichenko
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
E. Bento
Brazil
18 E. Bento
V. Rubchynskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
15 V. Rubchynskyi
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Substitution
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena
B. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
Pitch
O. Saputin
Ukraine
1 O. Saputin
R. Vantukh
Ukraine
47 R. Vantukh
G. Eskinja
Austria
4 G. Eskinja
A. da Silva Cordeiro
Substitution
Brazil
55 A. da Silva Cordeiro
I. Perduta
Ukraine
44 I. Perduta
J. Bašić
Croatia
21 J. Bašić
B. Kushnirenko
Substitution
Ukraine
77 B. Kushnirenko
D. Popara
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 D. Popara
D. Jelavić
Substitution
Croatia
27 D. Jelavić
P. Budkivskyi
Ukraine
28 P. Budkivskyi
A. Slesar
Substitution
Ukraine
9 A. Slesar

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Ukrajina
Capacity :
28051
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oleksandr Afanasiev
Andrii Zaytsev
Igor Rybchenko
Denis Romanov

Statistics

Possession
Karpaty
44%
Zorya Luhansk
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
9 Shots 11
37 Dangerous attacks 55
42 Possession 58
8 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Assists 1

Attacking

56 Attacks 74

Defensive

5 Saves 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Afanasiev

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko Defender
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych
Defender63'
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi Midfielder
47
Jean Pedroso
Jean Pedroso
Defender87'
18
Eriki
Eriki Midfielder
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
—
Yan Kostenko
87'
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin
Midfielder63'
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
14
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder80'
Referee : Oleksandr Afanasiev

Starting XI ▼

1
Oleksandr Saputin
Oleksandr Saputin Goalkeeper
4
Gabriel Eskinja
Gabriel Eskinja Defender
21
Jakov Basic
Jakov Basic Defender
44
Igor Perduta
Igor Perduta Defender
47
Roman Vantukh
Roman Vantukh Defender
55
Jordan
Jordan Defender
5
Andrija Janjić
Andrija Janjić
Defender60'
6
Dejan Popara
Dejan Popara Midfielder
22
Petar Micin
Petar Micin
Midfielder60'
9
Artem Slesar
Artem Slesar Midfielder
14
Stanislav Yaroshenko
Stanislav Yaroshenko
Midfielder90+1'
27
Domagoj Jelavic
Domagoj Jelavic Midfielder
10
Juninho
Juninho
Defender60'
77
Bogdan Kushnirenko
Bogdan Kushnirenko Midfielder
8
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Midfielder68'
28
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Pylyp Budkivskyi Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vitaliy Kholod
8th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Igor Perduta
9th Yellowcard
Event
Eriki
7th Yellowcard
90+6'
90+6'
Event
Pylyp Budkivskyi
6th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Andrija Janjić
5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Stanislav Yaroshenko → Artem Slesar
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Andrija Janjić
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Oleksandr Dyedov → Yan Kostenko
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Jean Pedroso → Valentyn Rubchynskyi
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Xeber Alkain
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Vladyslav Baboglo
4th Yellowcard
77'
73'
Event
Roman Vantukh
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk → Bogdan Kushnirenko
6th Substitution
Event
Oleksiy Sych → Denys Miroshnichenko
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Yaroslav Karabin → Bruninho
4th Substitution
63'
60'
Event
Andrija Janjić → Jordan
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Petar Micin → Dejan Popara
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Juninho → Domagoj Jelavic
2nd Substitution
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko
3rd Yellowcard
58'
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Jordan
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Bruninho
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
30'
11'
Event
Bogdan Kushnirenko
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Pylyp Budkivsky.
90
Update Update
Stanislav Yaroshenko comes on for Artem Slesar.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vitaliy Kholod receives a yellow card.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Jean Pedroso comes on for Valentyn Rubchynskyi.
87
Update Update
Oleksandr Dyedov comes on for Yan Kostenko.
67
Update Update
Kyrylo Dryshliuk is on, and Bogdan Kushnirenko is off.
63
Update Update
Oleksii Sych replaces Denys Miroshnichenko.
63
Update Update
Yaroslav Karabin replaces Bruno Roberto Pereira Da Silva.
60
Update Update
Petar Micin comes on for Dejan Popara.
60
Update Update
Leovigildo Júnior Reis Rodrigues comes on for Domagoj Jelavic.
60
Update Update
Andrija Janjic is on, and Anderson Jordan da Silva Cordeiro is off.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Denys Miroshnichenko receives a yellow card.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Anderson Jordan da Silva Cordeiro.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bogdan Kushnirenko receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Karpaty 1-2 Zorya Luhansk. Structural assessment: Zorya Luhansk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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