Karpaty vs Oleksandria Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine

Stadion Ukrajina Sat, 11 Apr - 10:00 AM

Premier League

Karpaty Karpaty

Oleksandria Oleksandria

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 10:00 AM

Round 23 Regular Season

Jean Pedroso - 90+2'

Yan Kostenko - 76'

Denys Miroshnichenko 73'

Mykola Ogarkov 87'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Karpaty recording a 2-0 victory over Oleksandria at full time after a goalless first half. Pre-match expectations had Karpaty as favorites with a 55.5 percent likelihood of winning, against 25.4 percent for the draw and 19.1 percent for an Oleksandria success. The result represented a significant deviation for Karpaty, who delivered a stronger performance than anticipated and claimed all three points as the clearly superior side on the day. Karpaty held 59 percent possession to Oleksandria’s 41 percent but both teams were reduced to ten players after receiving a red card each. These dismissals created a red-card distortion that shaped second-half play, yet the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations. No expected-goals data was available, preventing any assessment of consistency with xG. Overall the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection despite the noted deviation, as Karpaty converted their territorial edge into a clean-sheet win once the numerical changes took effect. The result underlined their status as the stronger team across the full contest.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Karpaty showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

Nikolai Balakin

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Berkut

1st Assistant

V. Matyash

2nd Assistant

F. Fernández Díaz

V. Sharan

1.29

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.43

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 5 - 9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Karpaty

55.53%

Draw

25.4%

Oleksandria

19.07%

Movement

Changes since opening

Karpaty

-38.09%

Draw

+19.78%

Oleksandria

+18.31%

Team Power Ranking

25.34

11.8

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Karpaty

Oleksandria

Power Score

25.34

11.8

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score

Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Karpaty Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Oleksandria

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

3.39

0.00

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

0.00

3.39

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Karpaty +0.35 Efficiency Index

Oleksandria -0.35 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Karpaty

Oleksandria

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Oleksandria

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Karpaty Oleksandria

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Karpaty Oleksandria

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Karpaty

Oleksandria

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Karpaty

Oleksandria

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Karpaty Oleksandria

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Karpaty Oleksandria

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Karpaty

Oleksandria

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Oleksandria had peak pressure around 13'.
Oleksandria started the game with stronger pressure.
Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.

Karpaty Pressure Oleksandria Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Oleksandria reached the top pressure at 13' (43.30).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Karpaty Karpaty Home

17 matches

Oleksandria Oleksandria Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-15

Goal Difference

+15

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:01:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

1 N. Domchak

11 D. Miroshnichenko

3 V. Adamyuk

44 V. Kholod

73 R. Lyakh

20 M. Sapuga

7 P. Fernandes Pereira

8 A. Chachua

37 B. Pereira da Silva

26 Y. Kostenko

99 B. Faal

72 N. Makarenko

23 M. Ogarkov

86 A. Bol

26 M. Ferreira Campos

91 B. Butko

20 D. Vashchenko

37 P. Yade

9 D. Myshnov

49 M. Ferreira Guimarães

27 T. Cara

99 B. Castillo Rosendo

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 10:00 AM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Ukrajina

Capacity :

28051

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Oleksandr Berkut

Viktor Matyash

Nikolai Balakin

Statistics

Possession

Karpaty

57%

Oleksandria

43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

5 Shots 4

59 Possession 41

6 Corners 7

7 Free kicks 9

3 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5

2 Assists 0

Attacking

2 Attacks 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0

10 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Manager ▼

F. Fernández Díaz Coach

Starting XI ▼

Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper

6.5

Volodymyr Adamyuk Defender

6.5

Denys Miroshnichenko Defender

5.93

Vitaliy Kholod Defender

6.5

Rostyslav Lyakh Defender

6.5

Paulo Vitor Midfielder

6.5

Xeber Alkain

Midfielder62'

6.61

Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder

6.5

Jean Pedroso

Defender86'

6.69

Marko Sapuga Midfielder

6.45

Eriki

Midfielder63'

6.5

Yan Kostenko Midfielder

6.69

Yaroslav Karabin

Midfielder86'

Bruninho Midfielder

6.45

Oleksiy Sych

Defender77'

6.5

Baboucarr Faal Attacker

6.59

Substitutes ▼

Xeber Alkain

Midfielder62'

6.61

Eriki

Midfielder63'

6.5

Oleksiy Sych

Defender77'

6.5

Jean Pedroso

Defender86'

6.69

Yaroslav Karabin

Midfielder86'

Bench ▼

Andriy Klishchuk Goalkeeper

Roman Mysak Goalkeeper

Tymur Stetskov Defender

Stênio Midfielder

Ilya Kvasnytsya Midfielder

Valentyn Rubchynskyi Midfielder

Artur Shakh Midfielder

Referee : Nikolai Balakin