Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Ukrajina Sat, 2 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Karpaty Karpaty
0 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy
Full Time Sat, 2 May 3:00 PM
Round 26 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In a closely fought Ukrainian Premier League encounter, Karpaty hosted LNZ Cherkasy, culminating in a 0-0 draw. The first half mirrored the final scoreline at 0-0, with possession split almost evenly: Karpaty held 49% compared to LNZ Cherkasy's 51%. LNZ Cherkasy entered as the stronger team but could not capitalize on their marginal advantages, leading to a stalemate. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half tactical adjustments were evident. This result marked a significant 68.5% structural deviation from expectations favoring LNZ Cherkasy. Pre-match market probabilities did not align with the draw, as LNZ was anticipated to prevail. Efficiency metrics for both sides remained in line with norms. However, the absence of xG data prevents detailed assessment of chance creation and conversion. The even contest highlighted defensive solidity over attacking flair, with neither side breaking the deadlock.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 68.5% structural deviation occurred against LNZ Cherkasy's pre-match favoritism.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated as data is null.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, resulting in zero distortion to proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Nikolai Balakin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Berkut

1st Assistant

V. Matyash

2nd Assistant

A. Mykhaylyuk

4th Official

Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
VS
LNZ Cherkasy V. Ponomarov
V. Ponomarov
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Oleksandria Rank: 46 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 51 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 D
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Karpaty
30.72%
Draw
31.53%
Away LNZ Cherkasy
37.75%

Movement

Changes since opening
Karpaty
+25.4%
Draw
-56.2%
LNZ Cherkasy
+30.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.9
58.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
Power Score
54.9
58.25
League Position
8
2
Global Rank
649
546

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
LNZ Cherkasy — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Karpaty LNZ Cherkasy

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LNZ Cherkasy

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LNZ Cherkasy
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
9.69
16.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.67
9.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Karpaty -0.71 Efficiency Index
vs
LNZ Cherkasy +0.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LNZ Cherkasy
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Karpaty LNZ Cherkasy
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Karpaty LNZ Cherkasy
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Karpaty
vs
LNZ Cherkasy
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Karpaty LNZ Cherkasy
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Karpaty 0.09
LNZ Cherkasy 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Karpaty LNZ Cherkasy
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Karpaty 0.00
LNZ Cherkasy 0.00
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LNZ Cherkasy had peak pressure around 67'.
  • Karpaty started the game with stronger pressure.
Karpaty Pressure LNZ Cherkasy Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LNZ Cherkasy reached the top pressure at 67' (60.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Karpaty Karpaty Home
3 matches
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
3
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
3
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
O. Sych
Substitution
Ukraine
77 O. Sych
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
M. Sapuga
Substitution
Ukraine
20 M. Sapuga
B. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena
B. Faal
Substitution
Gambia
99 B. Faal
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
Pitch
O. Palamarchuk
Ukraine
12 O. Palamarchuk
A. Drambayev
Ukraine
14 A. Drambayev
N. Muravskyi
Ukraine
34 N. Muravskyi
O. Gorin
Ukraine
25 O. Gorin
G. Pasich
Ukraine
11 G. Pasich
R. Didyk
Ukraine
29 R. Didyk
A. Ryabov
Ukraine
16 A. Ryabov
D. Kuzyk
Ukraine
17 D. Kuzyk
E. Tverdokhlib
Substitution
Ukraine
22 E. Tverdokhlib
A. Mykytyshyn
Substitution
Ukraine
7 A. Mykytyshyn
M. Assinor
Substitution
Ghana
90 M. Assinor

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Ukrajina
Capacity :
28051
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oleksandr Berkut
Viktor Matyash
Artem Mykhaylyuk
Nikolai Balakin

Statistics

Possession
Karpaty
51%
LNZ Cherkasy
49%

Top Statistics

1 Shots 3
35 Dangerous attacks 50
49 Possession 51
2 Corners 6
17 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 3
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

91 Attacks 62

Defensive

2 Saves 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
6.71
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
6.62
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
6.17
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
6.22
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych Defender
6.5
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko
Defender72'
6.44
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
6.54
20
Marko Sapuga
Marko Sapuga Midfielder
6.66
47
Jean Pedroso
Jean Pedroso
Defender62'
6.44
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
6.71
7
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
Midfielder82'
6.59
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
6.87
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Midfielder82'
6.5
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
6.94
99
Baboucarr Faal
Baboucarr Faal Attacker
6.56
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin
Midfielder72'
6.47
Referee : Nikolai Balakin

Starting XI ▼

12
Oleksiy Palamarchuk
Oleksiy Palamarchuk Goalkeeper
6.61
11
Gennadiy Pasich
Gennadiy Pasich Defender
6.49
14
Oleksandr Drambayev
Oleksandr Drambayev Defender
6.66
17
Denys Kuzyk
Denys Kuzyk Defender
6.68
25
Oleg Gorin
Oleg Gorin Defender
6.73
29
Roman Didyk
Roman Didyk Defender
6.54
34
Nazariy Muravskyi
Nazariy Muravskyi Defender
6.55
7
Artur Mykytyshyn
Artur Mykytyshyn Midfielder
6.45
10
Muharrem Jashari
Muharrem Jashari
Midfielder68'
6.59
16
Artur Ryabov
Artur Ryabov Midfielder
6.63
22
Yegor Tverdokhlib
Yegor Tverdokhlib Midfielder
6.46
19
Yevgeniy Pastukh
Yevgeniy Pastukh
Midfielder68'
6.3
90
Mark Assinor
Mark Assinor Attacker
6.79
23
Danylo Kravchuk
Danylo Kravchuk
Attacker79'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko
6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Valentyn Rubchynskyi → Bruninho
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Paulo Vitor → Yan Kostenko
8th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Danylo Kravchuk → Mark Assinor
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Muharrem Jashari
5th Yellowcard
Event
Yaroslav Karabin → Baboucarr Faal
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko → Oleksiy Sych
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Jean Pedroso
4th Yellowcard
71'
68'
Event
Muharrem Jashari → Artur Mykytyshyn
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Yevgeniy Pastukh → Yegor Tverdokhlib
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Artur Mykytyshyn
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jean Pedroso → Marko Sapuga
1st Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Artur Mykytyshyn
1st Missed Penalty
1ST-HALF
Event
Ambrosiy Chachua
2nd Yellowcard
45+2'
19'
Event
Yegor Tverdokhlib
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

82
Update Update
Valentyn Rubchynskyi replaces Bruno Roberto Pereira Da Silva.
82
Update Update
Paulo Vitor is on, and Yan Kostenko is off.
79
Update Update
Danylo Kravchuk comes on for Mark Assinor.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Muharrem Jashari.
73
Update Update
Yaroslav Karabin is on, and Baboucarr Faal is off.
72
Update Update
Denys Miroshnichenko is on, and Oleksii Sych is off.
67
Update Update
Muharrem Jashari comes on for Artur Mykytyshyn.
67
Update Update
Yevgeniy Pastukh is on, and Yegor Tverdokhlib is off.
61
Update Update
Jean Pedroso replaces Marko Sapuha.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yegor Tverdokhlib receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 draw between Karpaty and LNZ Cherkasy underscored a match of balance and resilience, with near-even possession and no halftime breakthrough. LNZ Cherkasy's status as the stronger team failed to translate into victory, producing a significant structural deviation of 68.5%. Market misalignment highlights the unpredictability, while efficiencies held steady. Without xG data, shot quality remains opaque, but the lack of red cards and events preserved natural flow. This result bolsters Karpaty's defensive record while exposing LNZ's finishing limitations, potentially shifting momentum in future fixtures.

Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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