Kalmar vs Elfsborg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden

Guldfågeln Arena Mon, 27 Apr - 5:00 PM

Allsvenskan

Kalmar KAL

Elfsborg ELF

Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 5 Regular Season

A. Olusanya - 57'

C. Rosenquist - 13'

F. Ihler - 5'

CONTEXT

Kalmar clinched a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Elfsborg at home in the Allsvenskan, defying pre-match perceptions of Elfsborg as the stronger side. The first half ended level at 1-1, with Kalmar managing 46% possession against Elfsborg's 54%, setting up a tense second-half battle. Kalmar's resilience shone through as they found the decisive goal without the game being disrupted by red cards or major tactical shifts. This result highlighted Kalmar's ability to outperform expectations in key moments, maintaining structural balance throughout. Possession favored the visitors, yet Kalmar's efficiency in front of goal proved decisive, turning the tide in their favor. The match exemplified competitive parity, with no significant events altering the flow, underscoring Kalmar's home advantage and tactical poise.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Kalmar's win featured minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with assessments for both teams.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market views.
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events influenced the result.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

E. Mattsson

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Gustavsson

1st Assistant

A. Sjöberg

2nd Assistant

R. Hasani

4th Official

T. Koskela

B. Hamberg

0.25

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.67

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

11 - 12 - 17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Kalmar

96.07%

Draw

3.73%

Elfsborg

0.19%

Team Power Ranking

7.44

29.78

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Kalmar

Elfsborg

Power Score

7.44

29.78

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Kalmar — Opponent-weighted form score

Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kalmar Elfsborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Kalmar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Elfsborg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kalmar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Elfsborg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

21.30

16.67

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

16.67

21.30

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Kalmar +0.46 Efficiency Index

Elfsborg -0.46 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Kalmar

Elfsborg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kalmar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Elfsborg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Kalmar Elfsborg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Kalmar Elfsborg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Kalmar

Elfsborg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Kalmar

Elfsborg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Kalmar Elfsborg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Kalmar Elfsborg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Kalmar

Elfsborg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

ELF had peak pressure around 79'.
KAL started the game with stronger pressure.

KAL Pressure ELF Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: ELF reached the top pressure at 79' (73.72).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kalmar KAL Home

40 matches

Elfsborg ELF Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-19

Goal Difference

+19

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:02:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 3-4-3

30 J. Kindberg

4 R. Jansson

39 L. Sætra

20 A. Dari

2 V. Larsson

5 M. Hallberg

23 R. Gojani

7 N. Chourak

11 A. Olusanya

13 C. Rosenquist

24 C. Sagoe Junior

31 I. Pettersson

4 T. Poppler-Isherwood

6 R. Wikström

8 S. Holmén

23 N. Hult

10 S. Olsson

18 J. Magnússon

15 S. Hedlund

16 A. Hellemaa

11 T. Silverholt

24 F. Ihler

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 27, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 5 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Guldfågeln Arena

Capacity :

12500

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Daniel Gustavsson

Anton Sjöberg

Rinon Hasani

Erik Mattsson

Statistics

Possession

KAL

46%

ELF

54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 0

5 Shots 3

36 Dangerous attacks 60

46 Possession 54

1 Corners 3

11 Free kicks 15

3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5

85 Ball Safe 86

8 Goal Attempts 4

22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

1 Injuries 0

9 Dribble Attempts 10

15 Throwins 25

2 Successful Dribbles 5

2 Assists 1

9 Goal Kicks 6

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0

82 Attacks 87

Possession

451 Passes 516

37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

83 Successful Passes Percentage 83

51 Long Passes 64

373 Successful Passes 427

19 Successful Long Passes 27

6 Key Passes 5

Defensive

50 Duels Won 54

17 Tackles 22

1 Saves 2

11 Interceptions 5

Build-up

4 Total Crosses 25

1 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 1

15 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Erik Mattsson

Manager ▼

T. Koskela Coach

Starting XI ▼

J. Kindberg Goalkeeper

6.98

Victor Larsson Defender

6.43

S. Øverby

Defender79'

6.44

R. Jansson Defender

6.83

Achraf Dari Defender

6.94

L. Sætra Defender

6.59

M. Hallberg Midfielder

6.77

Marius Söderbäck

Midfielder72'

6.59

N. Chourak Midfielder

6.94

A. Olusanya Midfielder

6.53

A. Magashy

Midfielder90+1'

R. Gojani Midfielder

7.16

C. Rosenquist Attacker

6.75

Z. Råvik

Defender90+1'

6.35

Charles Sagoe Jr Attacker

6.83

V. Tyren

Attacker79'

6.81

Substitutes ▼

Marius Söderbäck

Midfielder72'

6.59

S. Øverby

Defender79'

6.44

V. Tyren

Attacker79'

6.81

A. Magashy

Midfielder90+1'

Z. Råvik

Defender90+1'

6.35

Bench ▼

S. Brolin Goalkeeper

Elion Imeri Midfielder

Emeka Nnamani Attacker

6.57

Referee : Erik Mattsson