Kalmar vs Degerfors Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Guldfågeln Arena Sat, 23 May - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Kalmar KAL
2 Winner 1
Degerfors Degerfors
Full Time Sat, 23 May 1:00 PM
Round 9 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
Juhani Pikkarainen - 90+3'

CONTEXT

Kalmar defeated Degerfors 2-1 at home in a match where the home side led 1-0 at halftime. Degerfors entered as the stronger team but finished with 55 percent possession against Kalmar's 45 percent. Kalmar produced a significant deviation from pre-match indicators to claim the three points. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. The result highlighted Kalmar's capacity to secure victory despite lower ball control and lower pre-match standing. Degerfors created opportunities but could not overcome the deficit after the break. The final scoreline reflected Kalmar's clinical finishing in key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Kalmar 2-1 Degerfors. Kalmar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with projections across both halves.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match projections for the winner.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were available for either team.
  • Event impact: No major events disrupted the match flow or scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards left team structures unaffected.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Karlsson

Sweden 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hallin

1st Assistant

Sweden

A. Milovanovic

2nd Assistant

Sweden

A. Aganovic

4th Official

Sweden

League averages

Allsvenskan Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.77
Yellow cards / match 3.22
Red cards / match 0.06
Penalties / match 0.17
Kalmar T. Koskela
T. Koskela
VS
Degerfors H. Goitom
H. Goitom
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.13
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brommapojkarna Rank: 49 L
Halmstad Rank: 46 W
Sirius Rank: 62 L
Elfsborg Rank: 58 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 55 D
AIK Rank: 57 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
GAIS Rank: 59 D
Mjällby Rank: 70 L
Häcken Rank: 59 D
Örgryte Rank: 40 D
AIK Rank: 57 W
Elfsborg Rank: 58 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kalmar
49.25%
Draw
27.34%
Away Degerfors
23.41%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kalmar
-46.82%
Draw
+23.61%
Degerfors
+23.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
41.74
47.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kalmar
Degerfors
Power Score
41.74
47.73
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
745
831

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kalmar — Opponent-weighted form score
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kalmar Degerfors

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kalmar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Degerfors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kalmar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Degerfors
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.78
42.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.73
35.78
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kalmar -0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Degerfors +0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kalmar
Degerfors
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kalmar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Degerfors
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kalmar Degerfors
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kalmar Degerfors
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kalmar
Degerfors
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kalmar
vs
Degerfors
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kalmar Degerfors
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kalmar 0.33
Degerfors 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kalmar Degerfors
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kalmar 0.02
Degerfors 0.05
Kalmar
Degerfors
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Degerfors had peak pressure around 8'.
  • Degerfors started the game with stronger pressure.
KAL Pressure Degerfors Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Degerfors reached the top pressure at 8' (96.34).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kalmar KAL Home
6 matches
Degerfors Degerfors Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
13
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Igonen
Estonia
38 M. Igonen
S. Diatara
Substitution
18 S. Diatara
J. Pikkarainen
Finland
5 J. Pikkarainen
S. Ohlsson
Substitution
Sweden
16 S. Ohlsson
D. Sundgren
Sweden
6 D. Sundgren
K. Karlsson
Sweden
4 K. Karlsson
N. Girmai
Sweden
22 N. Girmai
M. Rafferty
Substitution
Sweden
10 M. Rafferty
D. Vukojevic
Substitution
Sweden
11 D. Vukojevic
G. Yaw Yiriyon
Substitution
Ghana
13 G. Yaw Yiriyon
L. Fritzson
Sweden
14 L. Fritzson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 9 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Guldfågeln Arena
Capacity :
12500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mikael Hallin
Niclas Karlsson
Alexander Milovanovic
Adi Aganovic

Statistics

Possession
KAL
47%
Degerfors
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 6
42 Dangerous attacks 50
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 8
13 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
19 Throwins 25
13 Dribble Attempts 13
7 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Substitutions 5
77 Ball Safe 84
0 Injuries 1
12 Goal Attempts 13
7 Goal Kicks 10

Attacking

78 Attacks 106
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

11 Key Passes 14
81 Successful Passes Percentage 81
321 Successful Passes 384
395 Passes 476
61 Long Passes 49
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
33 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

9 Saves 5
11 Tackles 14
45 Duels Won 44
10 Interceptions 4

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 21
6 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Niclas Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

1
S. Brolin
S. Brolin Goalkeeper
2
Victor Larsson
Victor Larsson Defender
4
R. Jansson
R. Jansson Defender
20
Achraf Dari
Achraf Dari Defender
70
Emeka Nnamani
Emeka Nnamani
Attacker82'
39
L. Sætra
L. Sætra Defender
5
M. Hallberg
M. Hallberg Midfielder
7
N. Chourak
N. Chourak Midfielder
10
Marius Söderbäck
Marius Söderbäck
Midfielder73'
17
C. Gustafsson
C. Gustafsson Midfielder
24
Charles Sagoe Jr
Charles Sagoe Jr Midfielder
12
Z. Råvik
Z. Råvik
Defender82'
11
A. Olusanya
A. Olusanya Attacker
14
Elion Imeri
Elion Imeri
Midfielder90+6'
13
C. Rosenquist
C. Rosenquist Attacker
21
A. Magashy
A. Magashy
Midfielder73'
Referee : Niclas Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

38
Matvei Igonen
Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
5
Juhani Pikkarainen
Juhani Pikkarainen Defender
6
Daniel Sundgren
Daniel Sundgren Defender
16
Sebastian Ohlsson
Sebastian Ohlsson Defender
15
Nasiru Moro
Nasiru Moro
Defender86'
18
Samba Diatara
Samba Diatara Defender
12
Erik Lindell
Erik Lindell
Defender69'
4
Kazper Karlsson
Kazper Karlsson Midfielder
10
Marcus Rafferty
Marcus Rafferty Midfielder
19
Alexander Lindgren
Alexander Lindgren
Midfielder81'
11
Dijan Vukojevic
Dijan Vukojevic Midfielder
20
Elias Barsoum
Elias Barsoum
Midfielder69'
13
Gideon Yaw
Gideon Yaw Midfielder
17
Arman Taranis
Arman Taranis
Attacker46'
22
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Nahom Girmai Netabay Midfielder
14
Ludvig Fritzson
Ludvig Fritzson Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Elion Imeri → A. Olusanya
10th Substitution
90+6'
90+3'
Event
Juhani Pikkarainen
Header / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Nasiru Moro → Sebastian Ohlsson
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Daniel Sundgren
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Z. Råvik → Charles Sagoe Jr
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Emeka Nnamani → Achraf Dari
7th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Alexander Lindgren → Marcus Rafferty
6th Substitution
Event
Marius Söderbäck → N. Chourak
5th Substitution
73'
Event
A. Magashy → C. Rosenquist
4th Substitution
73'
69'
Event
Elias Barsoum → Dijan Vukojevic
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Erik Lindell → Samba Diatara
3rd Substitution
Event
C. Rosenquist
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
67'
Event
C. Gustafsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
55'
46'
Event
Arman Taranis → Gideon Yaw
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
R. Jansson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
43'
43'
Event
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Elion Imeri comes on for Anthony Olusanya.
90
Update Update
Juhani Pikkarainen scores with a header.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emeka Nnamani's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emeka Nnamani's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emeka Nnamani's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emeka Nnamani's right-footed shot is blocked.
86
Update Update
Nasiru Moro replaces Sebastian Ohlsson.
82
Update Update
Emeka Nnamani comes on for Achraf Dari.
81
Update Update
Zakarias Ravik comes on for Charles Sagoe Jr.
81
Update Update
Alexander Lindgren replaces Marcus Rafferty.
75
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Sundgren takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Abdussalam Magashy comes on for Charlie Rosenqvist.
72
Update Update
Marius Soderback comes on for Nassef Chourak.
69
Update Update
Erik Lindell comes on for Nahom Netabay.
69
Update Update
Elias Barsoum is on, and Dijan Vukojevic is off.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Charlie Rosenqvist scores, making it 2-0.
67
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Rosenqvist takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
67
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Rosenqvist takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
65
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty's right-footed shot is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Dari attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Dijan Vukojevic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
Arman Taranis takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Nahom Netabay takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Dijan Vukojevic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ludvig Fritzson attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Update Update
Arman Taranis comes on for Gideon Yiriyon Yaw.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nahom Netabay receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Rosenqvist takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Rony Jansson takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
38
Attempt Attempt
Melker Hallberg's header is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Melker Hallberg takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Melker Hallberg takes a left-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Nassef Chourak takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Victor Larsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Melker Hallberg takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Dijan Vukojevic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Samba Diatara takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Olusanya attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Dijan Vukojevic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Nahom Netabay takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ludvig Fritzson's header is saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Yiriyon Gideon takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rafferty takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Ludvig Fritzson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Kalmar's 2-1 victory over Degerfors demonstrated effective adaptation despite lower possession and pre-match expectations. The home side converted limited chances into goals while maintaining defensive shape after the interval. Degerfors controlled more of the ball yet failed to equalize. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to retain full tactical options until the end. The outcome underscores Kalmar's resilience in overcoming the stronger-rated opponent on the day. Future fixtures will test whether this result signals sustained improvement or an isolated performance.

Kalmar vs Degerfors preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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