Juventus vs Genoa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Juventus Stadium Mon, 6 Apr - 4:00 PM
Serie A
Juventus JUV
2 Winner 0
Genoa GEN
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Weston McKennie - 17'
Bremer - 4'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Juventus and Genoa has officially finished, with the home side securing a comfortable 2-0 full-time victory. Juventus established their dominance early on, carrying a 2-0 lead into the halftime break and seamlessly protecting that advantage throughout the rest of the contest. This result was perfectly aligned with pre-match market expectations. Juventus entered as the clear stronger team with a 67.6% probability of winning, while the likelihood of a draw sat at 19.6% and a Genoa upset at just 12.8%. Ultimately, the home side's victory resulted in a significant deviation of 32.4% in favor of Juventus, exactly as oddsmakers anticipated. On the pitch, Juventus dictated the tempo, holding a controlling 62% of the possession and leaving Genoa with only 38% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to measure underlying chance creation, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. Furthermore, the match flowed naturally without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either squad.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juventus showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Massa

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lo Cicero

1st Assistant

M. Marchetti

4th Official

M. Trinchieri

2nd Assistant

Juventus L. Spalletti
L. Spalletti
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 73 D
Udinese Rank: 73 W
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Roma Rank: 84 D
Como Rank: 84 L
Inter Rank: 91 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: 72 L
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Roma Rank: 84 W
Inter Rank: 91 L
Torino Rank: 74 W
Cremonese Rank: 67 D
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 8 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juventus
67.62%
Draw
19.56%
Away Genoa
12.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.73
73.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juventus
Genoa
Power Score
84.73
73.65
League Position
5
14
Global Rank
35
124

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juventus — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juventus Genoa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juventus

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juventus ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genoa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.27
36.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.05
29.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juventus -0.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Genoa +0.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Genoa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juventus ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genoa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juventus Genoa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juventus Genoa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Genoa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Juventus
vs
Genoa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Juventus Genoa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Juventus 0.37
Genoa 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juventus Genoa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Juventus 0.00
Genoa 0.05
Juventus
Genoa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juventus JUV Home
39 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
26
Wins
5
8
Draws
8
5
Losses
26
Goals
72
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
72
+38
Goal Difference
-38

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
M. Perin
Substitution
Italy
1 M. Perin
P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
France
15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
Brazil
3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
L. Kelly
England
6 L. Kelly
A. Cambiaso
Substitution
Italy
27 A. Cambiaso
M. Locatelli
Italy
5 M. Locatelli
F. Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
7 F. Conceição
W. McKennie
United States
22 W. McKennie
K. Thuram-Ulien
France
19 K. Thuram-Ulien
K. Yildiz
Substitution
Germany
10 K. Yildiz
J. David
Substitution
Canada
30 J. David
Pitch
J. Bijlow
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
A. Martín Caricol
Spain
3 A. Martín Caricol
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
L. Skiri Oestigaard
Norway
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
V. Carvalho Oliveira
Portugal
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
R. Malinovskiy
Substitution
Ukraine
17 R. Malinovskiy
M. Frendrup
Substitution
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
J. Messias
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. Messias
L. Colombo
Substitution
Italy
29 L. Colombo

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Juventus Stadium
Capacity :
41507
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Davide Massa
Alessandro Lo Cicero
Matteo Marchetti
Marco Trinchieri

Statistics

Possession
JUV
60%
GEN
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
16 Shots 12
43 Dangerous attacks 34
62 Possession 38
5 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 9
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 5
61 Ball Safe 65
21 Throwins 13
9 Successful Headers 6
7 Successful Dribbles 3
19 Dribble Attempts 8
2 Assists 0
37 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
3 Goal Kicks 11

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2
102 Attacks 75

Possession

40 Successful Long Passes 18
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
90 Successful Passes Percentage 83
15 Key Passes 4
579 Passes 354
521 Successful Passes 295
65 Long Passes 40

Defensive

13 Tackles 22
7 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 3
35 Duels Won 41

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
16 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

10 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

1
Mattia Perin
Mattia Perin Goalkeeper
16
Michele Di Gregorio
Michele Di Gregorio
Goalkeeper46'
3
Bremer
Bremer Defender
6
Lloyd Kelly
Lloyd Kelly Defender
15
Pierre Kalulu
Pierre Kalulu Defender
27
Andrea Cambiaso
Andrea Cambiaso Defender
2
Emil Holm
Emil Holm
Defender83'
5
Manuel Locatelli
Manuel Locatelli Midfielder
7
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição Midfielder
21
Fabio Miretti
Fabio Miretti
Midfielder83'
10
Kenan Yıldız
Kenan Yıldız Midfielder
13
Jérémie Boga
Jérémie Boga
Attacker90'
19
Khéphren Thuram
Khéphren Thuram Midfielder
22
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
30
Jonathan David
Jonathan David Attacker
14
Arkadiusz Milik
Arkadiusz Milik
Attacker67'
Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
3
Aarón Martín
Aarón Martín Defender
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Defender
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Defender
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
10
Junior Messias
Junior Messias Midfielder
8
Tommaso Baldanzi
Tommaso Baldanzi
Midfielder52'
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi Midfielder
73
Patrizio Masini
Patrizio Masini
Midfielder66'
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator
Attacker83'
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Attacker
18
Caleb Ekuban
Caleb Ekuban
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jérémie Boga → Kenan Yıldız
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Emil Holm → Andrea Cambiaso
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Fabio Miretti → Francisco Conceição
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Jeff Ekhator → Morten Frendrup
6th Substitution
Event
Khéphren Thuram
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
75'
Event
Aarón Martín
GoalkeeperSave
74'
Event
Aarón Martín
Penalty awarded
Event
Bremer
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Arkadiusz Milik → Jonathan David
5th Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Patrizio Masini → Ruslan Malinovskyi
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Caleb Ekuban → Lorenzo Colombo
3rd Substitution
52'
Event
Tommaso Baldanzi → Junior Messias
2nd Substitution
51'
Event
Morten Frendrup
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Michele Di Gregorio → Mattia Perin
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Weston McKennie
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Weston McKennie
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
Event
Manuel Locatelli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
Event
Bremer
Header / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Leo Østigård concedes.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Jérémie Boga replaces Kenan Yildiz.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Juventus leading Genoa 2-0.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Patrizio Masini of Genoa.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Fabio Miretti of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
89
Corner Corner
Emil Holm from Juventus misses a chance, heading the ball over the goal from the center of the box. The assist came from Fabio Miretti, who delivered a cross following a corner.
88
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Aarón Martín concedes.
87
Update Update
Emil Holm of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
87
Update Update
Foul by Patrizio Masini of Genoa.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Fabio Miretti replaces Francisco Conceição.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Emil Holm replaces Andrea Cambiaso.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Jeff Ekhator replaces Morten Frendrup.
82
Corner Corner
Juventus wins a corner after Justin Bijlow concedes.
82
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Arkadiusz Milik of Juventus takes a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, which is saved in the top right corner by Justin Bijlow of Genoa. The assist comes from Andrea Cambiaso.
82
Attempt Attempt
Khéphren Thuram's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Pierre Kalulu.
81
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Patrizio Masini from Genoa heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved by Michele Di Gregorio, the Juventus goalkeeper, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Vítinha with a cross.
80
Attempt Attempt
Aarón Martín's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Khéphren Thuram of Juventus receives a yellow card for a foul.
78
Update Update
Tommaso Baldanzi from Genoa won a free kick in the attacking area.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Khéphren Thuram against Juventus.
78
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa won a free kick in defense.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Arkadiusz Milik of Juventus.
75
Corner Corner
Penalty saved! Aarón Martín's left-footed shot for Genoa is saved in the left corner by Michele Di Gregorio from Juventus.
74
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Genoa.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bremer from Juventus receives a yellow card for a foul.
72
Update Update
Bremer of Juventus concedes a penalty after a foul in the penalty area.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Patrizio Masini of Genoa had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked. The assist came from Morten Frendrup.
72
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Genoa as Aarón Martín is fouled in the penalty area.
70
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Baldanzi from Genoa had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went wide.
69
Update Update
Vítinha from Genoa won a free kick in defense.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Lloyd Kelly against Juventus.
68
Attempt Attempt
Vítinha's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Arkadiusz Milik replaces Jonathan David.
67
Corner Corner
Genoa is awarded a corner after Weston McKennie concedes it.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Caleb Ekuban replaces Lorenzo Colombo.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Patrizio Masini replaces Ruslan Malinovskyi.
65
Update Update
Aarón Martín from Genoa won a free kick on the left wing.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Francisco Conceição of Juventus.
56
Attempt Attempt
Vítinha's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
56
Corner Corner
Genoa is awarded a corner after Francisco Conceição concedes.
54
Corner Corner
Genoa wins a corner after Weston McKennie concedes.
54
Attempt Attempt
Aarón Martín's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Alessandro Marcandalli's cross.
53
Attempt Attempt
Vítinha's shot from outside the box is blocked.
53
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Tommaso Baldanzi of Genoa shoots with his left foot from the right side of the box, but Michele Di Gregorio, the goalkeeper for Juventus, makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Ruslan Malinovskyi.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Genoa: Tommaso Baldanzi replaces Junior Messias.
51
Update Update
Manuel Locatelli of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Morten Frendrup from Genoa receives a yellow card for a foul.
51
Update Update
Morten Frendrup from Genoa committed a foul.
50
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Juventus. Francisco Conceição shot with his left foot from the center of the box but missed to the left, assisted by Kenan Yildiz's cross.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan David from Juventus hits the left post with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Francisco Conceição.
47
Attempt Attempt
Weston McKennie of Juventus had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from close range but missing to the left. Khéphren Thuram provided the assist.
47
Update Update
Ruslan Malinovskyi commits a handball for Genoa.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Juventus 2, Genoa 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Juventus leading Genoa 2-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Juventus: Michele Di Gregorio replaces Mattia Perin due to injury.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Francisco Conceição from Juventus shot with his right foot from the right side of the box but missed to the left. The assist was provided by Khéphren Thuram.
43
Update Update
Weston McKennie from Juventus misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from close range but sending the ball high. The assist was provided by Kenan Yildiz.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Khéphren Thuram against Juventus.
40
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson from Genoa won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Lorenzo Colombo of Genoa.
38
Update Update
Jonathan David of Juventus won a free kick in the attacking area.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Leo Østigård of Genoa.
35
Update Update
Andrea Cambiaso of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Junior Messias of Genoa.
33
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Kenan Yildiz of Juventus shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Justin Bijlow of Genoa saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Jonathan David.
30
Update Update
Leo Østigård from Genoa won a free kick in an attacking position.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan David against Juventus.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Kenan Yildiz of Juventus.
28
Update Update
Mikael Ellertsson of Genoa won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Weston McKennie of Juventus.
26
Update Update
Johan Vásquez from Genoa won a free kick on the left wing.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Weston McKennie of Juventus receives a yellow card for a foul.
25
Corner Corner
Genoa wins a corner after Bremer concedes.
25
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Leo Østigård from Genoa took a left-footed shot from the center of the box but missed to the left after a corner.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Manuel Locatelli of Juventus took a right-footed shot from outside the box that went to the left.
20
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Aarón Martín concedes.
20
Attempt Attempt
Khéphren Thuram's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Weston McKennie.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Juventus lead 2-0 against Genoa. Weston McKennie scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Francisco Conceição.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Malinovskyi from Genoa has a shot from outside the box with his left foot, but it is blocked.
15
Corner Corner
Genoa wins a corner after Manuel Locatelli concedes.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manuel Locatelli of Juventus receives a yellow card for a foul.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Manuel Locatelli of Juventus.
14
Update Update
Junior Messias of Genoa won a free kick in an attacking position.
12
Update Update
Handball by Vítinha of Genoa.
8
Attempt Attempt
Khéphren Thuram from Juventus had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box to the left. Jonathan David provided the assist.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Leo Østigård of Genoa.
7
Update Update
Francisco Conceição of Juventus won a free kick in defense.
6
Corner Corner
Kenan Yildiz of Juventus makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Justin Bijlow of Genoa saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Andrea Cambiaso.
4
Update Update
Bremer's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Kenan Yildiz.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Juventus lead 1-0 against Genoa. Bremer scores with a header from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Lloyd Kelly's header following a corner.
3
Corner Corner
Juventus win a corner after Ruslan Malinovskyi concedes.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Juventus exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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