Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Juventus Stadium Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Serie A
Juventus JUV
0 Winner 2
Fiorentina FIO
Full Time Sun, 17 May 10:00 AM
Round 37 Regular Season
|
Goal
Rolando Mandragora - 83'
Cher Ndour - 34'
|
Red Card Luca Ranieri 73'

CONTEXT

Juventus hosted Fiorentina in a match that concluded with a 0-2 final score after a 0-1 halftime. Juventus controlled 58 percent possession and generated 2.14 expected goals compared to Fiorentina's 0.65. Despite these advantages the home side failed to score while the visitors converted limited opportunities. Fiorentina received one red card during the contest which altered their structure in the second half. The outcome showed a significant deviation of 88.2 percent favoring the away team. Juventus entered as the stronger side yet could not align results with their underlying metrics. The match highlighted how isolated events influenced the final result beyond standard performance indicators.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina. Fiorentina showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with the 2.14 to 0.65 xG distribution.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Juventus underperformed relative to their elevated xG expectations.
  • Event impact: Key events shifted the match trajectory away from statistical projections.
  • Red card distortion: The away team's red card introduced measurable distortion in the second half.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Massa

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Meli

1st Assistant

Italy

S. Alassio

2nd Assistant

Italy

L. Marinelli

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Juventus L. Spalletti
L. Spalletti
VS
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 D
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Atalanta Rank: 84 W
Genoa Rank: 74 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa Rank: 75 D
Roma Rank: 85 L
Sassuolo Rank: 74 D
Lecce Rank: 69 D
Lazio Rank: 80 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 15 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juventus
71.36%
Draw
16.81%
Away Fiorentina
11.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Juventus
+71.12%
Draw
+14.89%
Fiorentina
-86.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.44
78.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juventus
Fiorentina
Power Score
84.44
78.14
League Position
6
15
Global Rank
36
75

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juventus — Opponent-weighted form score
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juventus Fiorentina

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juventus

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fiorentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juventus ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fiorentina
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.29
26.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.79
51.29
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juventus +2.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Fiorentina -2.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Fiorentina
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juventus
vs
Fiorentina
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juventus Fiorentina
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juventus Fiorentina
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Juventus
Fiorentina
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Juventus
vs
Fiorentina
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Juventus Fiorentina
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Juventus 0.35
Fiorentina 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juventus Fiorentina
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Juventus 0.08
Fiorentina 0.00
Juventus
Fiorentina
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JUV had peak pressure around 62'.
  • FIO started the game with stronger pressure.
JUV Pressure FIO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JUV reached the top pressure at 62' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juventus JUV Home
47 matches
Fiorentina FIO Away
Match Record
25
Wins
7
15
Draws
15
7
Losses
25
Goals
70
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
70
+28
Goal Difference
-28

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Di Gregorio
Italy
16 M. Di Gregorio
P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
France
15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
Brazil
3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
L. Kelly
Substitution
England
6 L. Kelly
A. Cambiaso
Substitution
Italy
27 A. Cambiaso
M. Locatelli
Italy
5 (C) M. Locatelli
T. Koopmeiners
Substitution
Netherlands
8 T. Koopmeiners
F. Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
7 F. Conceição
W. McKennie
United States
22 W. McKennie
K. Yildiz
Substitution
Türkiye
10 K. Yildiz
D. Vlahović
Serbia
9 D. Vlahović
Pitch
D. de Gea Quintana
Spain
43 (C) D. de Gea Quintana
R. Gosens
Substitution
Germany
21 R. Gosens
L. Ranieri
Substitution
Italy
6 L. Ranieri
M. Pongracic
Croatia
5 M. Pongracic
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
Brazil
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
M. Brescianini
Substitution
Italy
4 M. Brescianini
N. Fagioli
Substitution
Italy
44 N. Fagioli
C. Ndour
Italy
27 C. Ndour
M. Solomon
Israel
19 M. Solomon
R. Piccoli
Italy
91 R. Piccoli
F. Parisi
Substitution
Italy
65 F. Parisi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Juventus Stadium
Capacity :
41507
Attendance :
41676
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Davide Massa
Filippo Meli
Stefano Alassio
Livio Marinelli

Statistics

Possession
JUV
59%
FIO
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
26 Shots 10
75 Dangerous attacks 25
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17
16 Dribble Attempts 6
17 Successful Headers 13
8 Goal Kicks 12
17 Throwins 9
10 Successful Dribbles 1
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
16 Goal Attempts 7
59 Ball Safe 67

Attacking

99 Attacks 67
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

46 Long Passes 59
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
28 Successful Long Passes 20
388 Successful Passes 280
479 Passes 362
81 Successful Passes Percentage 77
20 Key Passes 8

Defensive

52 Duels Won 38
15 Tackles 10
5 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 9

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 9
15 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

16
Michele Di Gregorio
Michele Di Gregorio Goalkeeper
6.4
3
Bremer
Bremer Defender
7.2
6
Lloyd Kelly
Lloyd Kelly Defender
6.36
4
Federico Gatti
Federico Gatti
Defender81'
6.5
15
Pierre Kalulu
Pierre Kalulu Defender
6.61
27
Andrea Cambiaso
Andrea Cambiaso Defender
6.77
19
Khéphren Thuram
Khéphren Thuram
Midfielder69'
6.4
5
Manuel Locatelli
Manuel Locatelli (C) Midfielder
7.54
7
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição Midfielder
7.59
11
Edon Zhegrova
Edon Zhegrova
Attacker69'
6.46
8
Teun Koopmeiners
Teun Koopmeiners Midfielder
6.71
13
Jérémie Boga
Jérémie Boga
Attacker46'
7.42
10
Kenan Yıldız
Kenan Yıldız Midfielder
7.42
21
Fabio Miretti
Fabio Miretti
Midfielder90'
22
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
7.26
9
Dušan Vlahović
Dušan Vlahović Attacker
6.48
Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea (C) Goalkeeper
8.97
2
Dodô
Dodô Defender
7
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
7.76
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Defender
6.11
15
Pietro Comuzzo
Pietro Comuzzo
Defender64'
6.49
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Defender
6.59
62
Luís Balbo
Luís Balbo
Defender74'
6.69
4
Marco Brescianini
Marco Brescianini Midfielder
6.27
8
Rolando Mandragora
Rolando Mandragora
Midfielder64'
7.29
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Midfielder
7.58
44
Nicolò Fagioli
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder
6.75
10
Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson
Attacker64'
6.28
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon Attacker
7.11
65
Fabiano Parisi
Fabiano Parisi Attacker
6.62
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison
Attacker32'
6.61
91
Roberto Piccoli
Roberto Piccoli Attacker
6.93

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Albert Gudmundsson
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Fabio Miretti → Kenan Yıldız
10th Substitution
90'
85'
Event
Jack Harrison
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Rolando Mandragora
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Federico Gatti → Lloyd Kelly
9th Substitution
81'
74'
Event
Luís Balbo → Robin Gosens
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Luca Ranieri
Argument / 1st Redcard
Event
Dušan Vlahović
Goal disallowed
72'
Event
Khéphren Thuram → Andrea Cambiaso
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Edon Zhegrova → Francisco Conceição
7th Substitution
69'
64'
Event
Rolando Mandragora → Marco Brescianini
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Albert Gudmundsson → Nicolò Fagioli
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Pietro Comuzzo → Luca Ranieri
3rd Substitution
Event
Jérémie Boga → Teun Koopmeiners
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Bremer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
34'
Event
Cher Ndour
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
32'
Event
Jack Harrison → Fabiano Parisi
1st Substitution
22'
Event
Marin Pongracic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Fabio Miretti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Edon Zhegrova's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Dusan Vlahovic attempts a header but misses the target.
90
Update Update
Fabio Miretti replaces Kenan Yildiz.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Albert Gudmundsson receives a yellow card.
89
Update Update
Dusan Vlahovic attempts a header but misses the target.
88
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Yildiz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jack Harrison receives a yellow card.
83
Attempt Attempt
Rolando Mandragora scores with a left-footed shot.
82
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Yildiz takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Rolando Mandragora scores with a left-footed shot.
81
Update Update
Federico Gatti comes on for Lloyd Kelly.
74
Update Update
Luis Francisco Balbo Vieira comes on for Robin Gosens.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dusan Vlahovic scores, making it 1-1.
70
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic scores with a left-footed shot.
70
Attempt Attempt
Edon Zhegrova's left-footed shot is blocked.
69
Update Update
Edon Zhegrova comes on for Francisco Conceicao.
69
Update Update
Kephren Thuram-Ulien comes on for Andrea Cambiaso.
67
Attempt Attempt
Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimento's header is saved.
64
Update Update
Pietro Comuzzo replaces Luca Ranieri.
64
Update Update
Albert Gudmundsson replaces Nicolo Fagioli.
64
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora comes on for Marco Brescianini.
60
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Locatelli attempts a header but misses the shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Conceicao takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Weston McKennie's right-footed shot is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Cambiaso takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jeremie Boga takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Manor Solomon takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Manor Solomon takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
49
Update Update
Kenan Yildiz takes a header, but it misses the target.
47
Attempt Attempt
Jeremie Boga takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimento attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Jeremie Boga comes on for Teun Koopmeiners.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimento receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jack Harrison takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Fagioli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimento attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Attempt Attempt
Manor Solomon takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Yildiz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Locatelli takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Cher Ndour scores with a right-footed shot.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Cher Ndour scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Manor Solomon.
32
Update Update
Jack Harrison replaces Fabiano Parisi.
24
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Conceicao's left-footed shot is blocked.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marin Pongracic receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Roberto Piccoli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Conceicao's left-footed shot is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Locatelli's right-footed shot is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Robin Gosens has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina. Structural assessment: Fiorentina exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Juventus vs Fiorentina preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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