Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti Fri, 6 Mar - 2:06 PM
Serie B
Juve Stabia JUV
1 – 1
Sampdoria SAM
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:06 PM
Omar Correia - 89'
Goal
|
Goal
Alessandro Di Pardo - 90+3'

CONTEXT

The match between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria has officially finished in a 1-1 draw. After a scoreless first half, both sides managed to find the back of the net to share the points. Juve Stabia dominated the ball, controlling 63% of the possession compared to Sampdoria's 37%. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable, making it impossible to determine if the final outcome aligned with the true quality of scoring chances. Additionally, the match concluded without any red cards impacting the flow of play. Pre-match expectations favored Juve Stabia as the stronger team, giving them a 39.2% probability of securing a home victory. The draw sat at 31.7%, while a Sampdoria win was priced at 29.1%. The drawn result meant the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation, highlighting Juve Stabia's failure to convert their favored status into a win. Despite the hosts dropping points, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations. Juve Stabia recorded an efficiency mark of 1.2187 against Sampdoria's -1.2187, showing they controlled the tempo even if they could not secure the outright victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juve Stabia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Collu

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Mastrodonato

1st Assistant

M. Emmanuele

2nd Assistant

A. Calzavara

4th Official

Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
VS
Sampdoria A. Gregucci
A. Gregucci
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: D
Modena Rank: L
Monza Rank: L
Empoli Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: L
Mantova Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Palermo Rank: D
Modena Rank: W
Spezia Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juve Stabia
39.24%
Draw
31.68%
Away Sampdoria
29.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.62
35.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juve Stabia
Sampdoria
Power Score
47.62
35.71
League Position
7
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juve Stabia Sampdoria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.57
13.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.92
28.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juve Stabia +1.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Sampdoria -1.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Sampdoria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juve Stabia Sampdoria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Sampdoria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Sampdoria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juve Stabia JUV Home
4 matches
Sampdoria SAM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:18:19+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:06 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Capacity :
12000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giuseppe Collu
Vito Mastrodonato
Marco Emmanuele
Andrea Calzavara

Statistics

Possession
JUV
58%
SAM
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 3
40 Dangerous attacks 23
63 Possession 37
9 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Throwins 27
5 Successful Dribbles 7
3 Goal Kicks 9
11 Dribble Attempts 12
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
7 Goal Attempts 3
111 Ball Safe 101
0 Injuries 1
3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1

Attacking

97 Attacks 90
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
86 Successful Passes Percentage 79
44 Long Passes 56
519 Passes 311
445 Successful Passes 246
17 Successful Long Passes 26
12 Key Passes 3

Defensive

8 Interceptions 9
24 Tackles 18
0 Saves 3

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 13
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Alessandro Di Pardo
Header / 2nd Goal
90'
Event
Antonín Barák → Francesco Conti
6th Substitution
90'
Event
Edoardo Soleri → Mattia Viti
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Simone Pafundi → Luigi Cherubini
7th Substitution
Event
Omar Correia
Header / 1st Goal
89'
Event
Alvin Okoro → Alessandro Gabrielloni
5th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Matteo Ricci → Salvatore Esposito
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Manuel Cicconi → Simone Giordano
3rd Substitution
Event
Christian Pierobon → Rareș Burnete
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Fabio Maistro → Nicola Mosti
1st Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Tommaso Martinelli
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Juve Stabia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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