Juve Stabia vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti Sat, 16 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Juve Stabia JUV
2 – 2
Monza MON
Full Time Sat, 16 May 6:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2
Alvin Okoro - 68'
Nicola Mosti - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Filippo Delli Carri - 89'
Andrea Carboni - 77'

CONTEXT

In the latest fixture Juve Stabia and Monza played out an entertaining 2-2 draw. The halftime score stood at 0-0 with both teams showing restraint in their attacking play during the opening period. Possession was heavily skewed towards the home side who enjoyed sixty five percent control leaving Monza with thirty five percent. Despite being labeled the stronger team Monza could not secure a victory on the road. The second half witnessed a complete turnaround in fortunes as goals flowed freely from both ends. Each side netted twice to level the scores at full time. This outcome pointed to a notable deviation in structural expectations given the pre match assessments. Efficiency levels stayed in line with overall projections for the contest. Expected goals data remained unavailable preventing precise alignment checks but the balanced scoreline suggested parity in chances created. Event impacts from the even start influenced the later stages significantly. With no red cards shown the match avoided any major distortions to team compositions or strategies.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Juve Stabia held sixty five percent possession against Monza's thirty five percent in the drawn match.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with pre match expectations throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable preventing detailed alignment analysis with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The draw result did not align with pre game assessments favoring the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals information was available to compare against the actual goals scored.
  • Event impact: The even 0-0 halftime score led to a second half with four total goals.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so there was no impact on team structures or play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Ayroldi

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Yoshikawa

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Bianchini

2nd Assistant

Italy

Giuseppe Mucera

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.42
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.29
Penalties / match 0.28
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 57 W
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Frosinone Rank: 67 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Catanzaro Rank: 62 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Mantova Rank: 54 L
Modena Rank: 57 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 W
Catanzaro Rank: 62 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Juve Stabia
32.33%
Draw
31.25%
Away Monza
36.43%

Movement

Changes since opening
Juve Stabia
+28.26%
Draw
-60.6%
Monza
+32.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.05
59.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juve Stabia
Monza
Power Score
57.05
59.69
League Position
7
3
Global Rank
576
313

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Juve Stabia Monza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.54
29.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.57
23.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Juve Stabia -0.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Monza +0.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Juve Stabia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Juve Stabia Monza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Monza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juve Stabia
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Juve Stabia
vs
Monza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Juve Stabia Monza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Juve Stabia 0.28
Monza 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juve Stabia Monza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Juve Stabia 0.07
Monza 0.04
Juve Stabia
Monza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JUV had peak pressure around 60'.
  • JUV started the game with stronger pressure.
JUV Pressure MON Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JUV reached the top pressure at 60' (77.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Juve Stabia JUV Home
2 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
S. Diakite
France
46 S. Diakite
A. Giorgini
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
M. Bellich
Italy
6 (C) M. Bellich
M. Ricciardi
Substitution
Italy
2 M. Ricciardi
N. Mosti
Substitution
Italy
98 N. Mosti
G. Leone
Italy
55 G. Leone
O. Correia
France
29 O. Correia
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
A. Gabrielloni
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Gabrielloni
A. Okoro
Substitution
Nigeria
90 A. Okoro
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Lucchesi
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
L. Ravanelli
Substitution
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
A. Carboni
Italy
44 A. Carboni
P. Dentello Azzi
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
M. Pessina
Italy
32 (C) M. Pessina
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
S. Birindelli
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
D. Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
47 D. Carvalho
H. Azevedo Júnior
Brazil
8 H. Azevedo Júnior
P. Cutrone
Substitution
Italy
10 P. Cutrone

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Capacity :
12000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giovanni Ayroldi
Daisuke Emanuele Yoshikawa
Andrea Bianchini
Giuseppe Mucera

Statistics

Possession
JUV
63%
MON
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
46 Dangerous attacks 27
65 Possession 35
1 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

30 Throwins 9
8 Goal Kicks 6
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
20 Dribble Attempts 9
9 Successful Dribbles 5
4 Substitutions 4
75 Ball Safe 49
7 Goal Attempts 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

116 Attacks 78

Possession

61 Long Passes 51
427 Successful Passes 179
80 Successful Passes Percentage 65
536 Passes 277
25 Successful Long Passes 17
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
7 Key Passes 8

Defensive

11 Tackles 18
6 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 2

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6.27
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich (C) Defender
6.72
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
6.48
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
6.27
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi Midfielder
6.32
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni
Defender82'
6.3
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Midfielder
6.14
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone Midfielder
6.63
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
7.93
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Midfielder
7.64
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon
Midfielder67'
6.52
9
Alessandro Gabrielloni
Alessandro Gabrielloni Attacker
7.03
8
Kevin Zeroli
Kevin Zeroli
Midfielder67'
6.61
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker
6.92
27
Leonardo Candellone
Leonardo Candellone
Attacker74'
6.28
Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
6.32
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
6.49
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
6.6
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri
Defender74'
7.47
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni Defender
7.21
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
6.68
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune
Defender62'
6.2
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.75
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
6.4
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina (C) Midfielder
6.58
8
Hernani
Hernani Attacker
7.48
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
6.38
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna
Attacker62'
6.48
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota Attacker
6.76
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso
Midfielder74'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Salim Diakité
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+4'
Event
Adam Bakoune
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Filippo Delli Carri
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Christian Pierobon
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Lorenzo Carissoni → Manuel Ricciardi
8th Substitution
82'
77'
Event
Andrea Carboni
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Leonardo Candellone → Alvin Okoro
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Filippo Delli Carri → Luca Ravanelli
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Giuseppe Caso → Dany Mota
7th Substitution
Event
Alvin Okoro
Header / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Christian Pierobon → Nicola Mosti
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Kevin Zeroli → Alessandro Gabrielloni
4th Substitution
67'
62'
Event
Adam Bakoune → Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Andrea Petagna → Patrick Cutrone
2nd Substitution
Event
Nicola Mosti
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
57'
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicola Mosti
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
28'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Handball / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marco Bellich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adam Bakoune receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Salim Diakite receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Delli Carri scores with a left-footed shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Zeroli takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christian Pierobon receives a yellow card.
83
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Delli Carri attempts a header but misses the shot.
82
Update Update
Lorenzo Carissoni replaces Manuel Ricciardi.
77
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Andrea Carboni with his left foot results in a goal.
74
Update Update
Filippo Delli Carri comes on for Luca Ravanelli.
74
Update Update
Leonardo Candellone comes on for Alvin Okoro.
74
Update Update
Giuseppe Caso comes on for Dany Mota Carvalho.
73
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pierobon takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
68
Update Update
Alvin Okoro scores with a header.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alvin Okoro scores, making it 2-0.
67
Update Update
Christian Pierobon is on, and Nicola Mosti is off.
67
Update Update
Kevin Zeroli is on, and Alessandro Gabrielloni is off.
62
Update Update
Adam Bakoune replaces Dany Mota Carvalho.
61
Update Update
Andrea Petagna replaces Patrick Cutrone.
60
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Mosti's left-footed shot is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Mosti scores with a left-footed shot.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nicola Mosti scores to make it 1-0.
54
Attempt Attempt
Alvin Okoro takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Mosti takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Gabrielloni's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Leone's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicola Mosti receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marco Bellich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Hernani Azevedo Junior takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Mosti takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Carboni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lorenzo Lucchesi receives a yellow card.
27
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Pessina takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Dany Mota Carvalho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Nicola Mosti takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The draw between Juve Stabia and Monza offered insights into possession not guaranteeing results. Home dominance in ball control did not yield a win as both teams scored twice for a 2-2 finish. Following a scoreless first half the second period produced all the goals with improved attacking play evident. Monza demonstrated resilience as the stronger team to secure a point despite less possession. Efficiency stayed consistent without major changes during the game. Missing expected goals data restricted analysis of scoring opportunities yet balance was apparent. Absence of red cards kept the match uninterrupted and fair in terms of numbers. This outcome emphasizes competitive aspects and prepares for the upcoming second leg.

Juve Stabia vs Monza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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