Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 9 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
3 Winner 2
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
Full Time Sat, 9 May 3:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Bernardo Vital - 90+1'
Afimico Pululu - 32'
Kajetan Szmyt - 11'
Goal
|
Goal
M. Agger - 83'
Filip Cuic - 44'

CONTEXT

Jagiellonia Białystok claimed a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Pogoń Szczecin, solidifying their status as the stronger side in this encounter. The home team surged ahead with a 2-1 lead at halftime, dominating possession at 57% throughout the match. Pogoń mounted a spirited comeback in the second half, narrowing the gap to one goal, but Jagiellonia's resilience shone through to secure the three points. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing both teams to showcase their attacking intent in an end-to-end affair. The result reflected a moderate structural deviation of 7.6% in Jagiellonia's favor, with efficiency holding steady in line with pre-match assessments. Possession edges translated into key chances, though defensive lapses kept the scoreline tight until the final whistle. This win underscores Jagiellonia's consistency against competitive opposition.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok exhibited a moderate 7.6% structural deviation in their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No major events or second-half adjustments significantly altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the natural scoreline progression.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Myć

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Sokolnicki

1st Assistant

Poland

M. Majewski

2nd Assistant

Poland

G. Kawałko

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.97
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.2
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
VS
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 66 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 57 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 L
Katowice Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 59 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 59 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 10 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jagiellonia Białystok
92.44%
Draw
7.32%
Away Pogoń Szczecin
0.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Jagiellonia Białystok
-2.28%
Draw
+2.23%
Pogoń Szczecin
+0.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.13
62.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok
Pogoń Szczecin
Power Score
65.13
62.2
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
328
420

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Pogoń Szczecin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.79
27.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.44
40.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok +1.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Pogoń Szczecin -1.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Pogoń Szczecin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pogoń Szczecin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Pogoń Szczecin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Pogoń Szczecin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Jagiellonia Białystok
vs
Pogoń Szczecin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Jagiellonia Białystok Pogoń Szczecin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.31
Pogoń Szczecin 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Pogoń Szczecin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.06
Pogoń Szczecin 0.05
Jagiellonia Białystok
Pogoń Szczecin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Jagiellonia Białystok had peak pressure around 46'.
  • Jagiellonia Białystok started the game with stronger pressure.
Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure Pogoń Szczecin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Jagiellonia Białystok reached the top pressure at 46' (93.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
31 matches
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Away
Match Record
11
Wins
10
10
Draws
10
10
Losses
11
Goals
40
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
40
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
Y. Kobayashi
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
G. Serrão Montóia
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 T. Romanczuk
S. Lozano Lluch
Substitution
Spain
21 S. Lozano Lluch
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
J. Imaz Ballesté
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
K. Szmyt
Substitution
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
A. Pululu
Substitution
France
10 A. Pululu
Pitch
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Borges da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
D. Lončar
Substitution
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
L. Wahlqvist
Substitution
Sweden
28 L. Wahlqvist
J. Czapliński
Substitution
Poland
30 J. Czapliński
K. Acosta
Substitution
United States
3 K. Acosta
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
M. Agger
Denmark
25 M. Agger
P. Mukairu
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
F. Čuić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 F. Čuić

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski
Capacity :
22372
Attendance :
19775
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pawel Sokolnicki
Maciej Majewski
Grzegorz Kawałko
Wojciech Myć

Statistics

Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
56%
Pogoń Szczecin
44%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 3
65 Dangerous attacks 36
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 0
19 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 0
80 Ball Safe 77
17 Goal Attempts 7
9 Successful Dribbles 10
6 Goal Kicks 7
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
12 Dribble Attempts 17
18 Throwins 9
2 Assists 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
111 Attacks 89

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 81
14 Key Passes 6
50 Long Passes 51
472 Passes 360
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
399 Successful Passes 293
18 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

1 Saves 11
52 Duels Won 52
17 Interceptions 10
13 Tackles 13

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 4
22 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
17 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Midfielder
44
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Defender90+3'
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder77'
21
Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano Midfielder
31
Leon Flach
Leon Flach
Midfielder82'
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
72
Kamil Jozwiak
Kamil Jozwiak
Midfielder77'
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar
Attacker82'
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender65'
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
15
Hussein Ali
Hussein Ali
Defender79'
28
Linus Wahlqvist
Linus Wahlqvist Defender
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Defender65'
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder65'
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Jacek Samuel Czapliński Midfielder
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa
Midfielder46'
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Apostolos Konstantopoulos → Álex Pozo
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Kamil Jozwiak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Bernardo Vital
Header / 5th Goal
90+1'
83'
Event
M. Agger
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Leon Flach → Sergio Lozano
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Samed Bazdar → Afimico Pululu
8th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Hussein Ali → Danijel Loncar
7th Substitution
Event
Matías Nahuel → Jesús Imaz
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Kamil Jozwiak → Kajetan Szmyt
5th Substitution
77'
65'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Léo Borges
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Kamil Grosicki → Kellyn Acosta
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Dimitrios Keramitsis → Linus Wahlqvist
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
N. Lawa → Jacek Samuel Czapliński
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Filip Cuic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Afimico Pululu
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
32'
Event
Kajetan Szmyt
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Apostolos Konstantopoulos is on, and Alejandro Pozo is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Bernardo Vital heads the ball into the net.
90
Attempt Attempt
Samed Bazdar's right-footed shot is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Jozwiak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mads Agger scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
83
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger scores with a left-footed shot.
82
Update Update
Leon Maximilian Flach comes on for Sergio Lozano.
82
Update Update
Samed Bazdar comes on for Afimico Pululu.
79
Update Update
Hussein Ali replaces Danijel Loncar.
78
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Grosicki's left-footed shot is saved.
77
Update Update
Matias Nahuel Leiva is on, and Jesus Imaz Balleste is off.
77
Update Update
Kamil Jozwiak comes on for Kajetan Szmyt.
74
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Dimitrios Keramitsis replaces Linus Wahlqvist.
65
Update Update
Leonardo Koutris replaces Leonardo Borges Da Silva.
65
Update Update
Kamil Grosicki replaces Kellyn Acosta.
60
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Pozo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Natan Lawa is on, and Jacek Czaplinski is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Alejandro Pozo with his left foot is saved.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Filip Cuic scores, making it 2-1.
44
Attempt Attempt
Filip Cuic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
42
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Taras Romanczuk's header is saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Update Update
Yuki Kobayashi's header is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu scores with a right-footed shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Kellyn Acosta's left-footed shot is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Taras Romanczuk's left-footed shot is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu's left-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Borges Da Silva takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Paul Omo Mukairu takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot and scores.
5
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Jagiellonia Białystok's 3-2 triumph over Pogoń Szczecin highlights their dominance as the pre-identified stronger team, converting 57% possession into a decisive edge despite a tense second half. The halftime 2-1 lead proved pivotal, with no red cards allowing pure football to prevail. Moderate deviations and aligned efficiencies affirm a performance true to form, free from external disruptions. This result boosts Jagiellonia's momentum, exposing Pogoń's vulnerabilities in tight contests. Expect the home side to build on this controlled victory in upcoming fixtures.

Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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