Jagiellonia Białystok vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 14 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok 
1 
2
2
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 1:45 PM
Jesús Imaz - 82'
|
Hugo Vallejo - 67', 21'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match has concluded, with Piast Gliwice securing a 2-0 full-time victory over Jagiellonia Białystok. The visitors established their advantage early, taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before adding a second goal to seal the win. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Piast Gliwice. Jagiellonia Białystok entered the fixture as the stronger team and clear favorite, holding a 51.5% market probability to win. Meanwhile, the draw sat at 25.8% and a Piast Gliwice victory was given just a 22.7% chance. Ultimately, the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Jagiellonia Białystok controlled the ball, dominating possession with 64%, while the victorious away side managed only 36%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, the efficiency shift remained firmly in line with the match's conclusion. Finally, the game progressed without any major disciplinary disruptions or unexpected player advantages, as neither side received a red card.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Piast Gliwice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
M. Szczerbowicz
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
B. Kaszyński
2nd Assistant
G. Kawałko
4th Official
J. Winkler
1st Assistant
A. Siemieniec
VS
D. Myśliwiec
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.39
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 59 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 63 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 57 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 63 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 57 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 11 - 11
11
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Jagiellonia Białystok51.5%
Draw
25.82%
Piast Gliwice22.68%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.44 60.43 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok Piast GliwicePower Score
63.44
60.43
League Position
3
12
Global Rank
355
440
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Jagiellonia Białystok
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Piast Gliwice
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.86
57.36
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
57.36
30.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok -2.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Piast Gliwice +2.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Piast Gliwice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Piast Gliwice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
11 matches
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Away
Match Record 3
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
3
Goals 12
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
12
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:48:59+00:00
STARTING XI
Jagiellonia Białystok Piast Gliwice Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
50 S. Abramowicz
A. Pozo Pozo
#746'
15 N. Wojtuszek
13 B. Cardoso Vital
4 Y. Kobayashi
23 G. Serrão Montóia
6 (C) T. Romanczuk
B. Mazurek
#8655'
8 D. Drachal
M. Leiva Esquivel
#1946'
27 B. Wdowik
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
Z. Zalewski
#8079'
77 K. Szmyt
A. Pululu
#1055'
14 S. Baždar
33 K. Szymanski
36 J. Lewicki
29 I. Drapiński
5 J. Rivas Margalef
F. Borowski
#2846'
55 E. Twumasi
280 H. Vallejo Avilés
10 (C) P. Dziczek
M. Chrapek
#675'
20 G. Tomasiewicz
O. Leśniak
#3159'
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Leandro Sanca
#1159'
7 J. Muñoz García
A. Dalmau Vaquer
#972'
63 G. Barkovskiy
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 01:45 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Miejski
👥 Capacity :
22372
🎟️ Attendance :
16580
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Bartosz Kaszyński
Grzegorz Kawałko
Marcin Szczerbowicz
Jacub Winkler
Statistics
Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
59%
Piast Gliwice
41%
Top Statistics
1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 17
95 Dangerous attacks 73
64 Possession 36
7 Corners 7
15 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
Match Overview
10 Goal Attempts 12
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1
1 Assists 2
29 Throwins 11
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
103 Ball Safe 75
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Successful Dribbles 6
13 Dribble Attempts 11
6 Goal Kicks 7
Attacking
128 Attacks 95
Possession
556 Passes 312
40 Long Passes 62
442 Successful Passes 219
0 Key Passes 1
18 Successful Long Passes 17
79 Successful Passes Percentage 70
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
Defensive
8 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 4
11 Tackles 15
Build-up
31 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 10
Discipline
6 Fouls 12
5 Offsides 1
Lineup
Jagiellonia Białystok Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz
Manager ▼
A. Siemieniec Coach
Starting XI ▼
50 Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
7.024 Yuki Kobayashi Defender
6.9413 Bernardo Vital Defender
7.7115 Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.397Álex Pozo
6.51Midfielder46'
23 Guilherme Montóia Defender
6.796 Taras Romanczuk (C) Midfielder
6.838 Dawid Drachal Midfielder
6.6486Bartosz Mazurek
7.05Midfielder55'
11 Jesús Imaz Midfielder
27 Bartlomiej Wdowik Midfielder
6.9719Matías Nahuel
6.59Midfielder46'
77 Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
6.0580Zachary Zalewski
6.43Midfielder79'
14 Samed Bazdar Attacker
6.9310Afimico Pululu
6.53Attacker55'
Substitutes ▼
7Álex Pozo
6.51Midfielder46'
19Matías Nahuel
6.59Midfielder46'
86Bartosz Mazurek
7.05Midfielder55'
10Afimico Pululu
6.53Attacker55'
80Zachary Zalewski
6.43Midfielder79'
Bench ▼
66 Adrian Damasiewicz Goalkeeper
44
Apostolos Konstantopoulos Defender
70
Andy Pelmard Defender
21
Sergio Lozano Midfielder
85 Eryk Kozlowski Midfielder
17
Youssuf Sylla Attacker
Piast Gliwice Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz
Manager ▼
D. Myśliwiec Coach
Starting XI ▼
33 Karol Szymanski Goalkeeper
6.915 Juande Rivas Defender
6.94
29 Igor Drapinski Defender
6.93
36 Jakub Lewicki Defender
7.08
55 Ema Twumasi Defender
6.4228Filip Borowski
6.27Defender46'
10 Patryk Dziczek (C) Midfielder
6.8920 Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
7.166Michal Chrapek
6.78Midfielder75'
80 Hugo Vallejo Midfielder
2
8.7298 Jason Lokilo Midfielder
7.6931Oskar Lesniak
6.87Midfielder59'
7 Jorge Félix Attacker
6.9211Leandro Sanca
7.1Midfielder59'
63 German Barkovskiy Attacker
6.479Adrián Dalmau
6.44Attacker72'
Substitutes ▼
28Filip Borowski
6.27Defender46'
31Oskar Lesniak
6.87Midfielder59'
11Leandro Sanca
7.1Midfielder59'
9Adrián Dalmau
6.44Attacker72'
6Michal Chrapek
6.78Midfielder75'
Bench ▼
12 Jakub Grelich Goalkeeper
3
Elton Fikaj Defender
4
Jakub Czerwinski Defender
22 Tomasz Mokwa Defender
90
Ivan Lima Midfielder
70
Andreas Katsantonis Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
Jesús Imaz
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
82'
Zachary Zalewski → Kajetan Szmyt
10th Substitution
79'
75'
Michal Chrapek → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
9th Substitution
72'
Adrián Dalmau → German Barkovskiy
8th Substitution
68'
Jakub Lewicki
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Hugo Vallejo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Oskar Lesniak → Jason Lokilo
6th Substitution
59'
Leandro Sanca → Jorge Félix
7th Substitution
Bartosz Mazurek → Dawid Drachal
4th Substitution
55'
Afimico Pululu → Samed Bazdar
5th Substitution
55'
53'
Juande Rivas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Álex Pozo → Norbert Wojtuszek
3rd Substitution
46'
Matías Nahuel → Bartlomiej Wdowik
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Filip Borowski → Ema Twumasi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Dawid Drachal
Goal disallowed
36'
33'
Igor Drapinski
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Hugo Vallejo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Piast Gliwice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Piast Gliwice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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