Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Stadion Miejski Fri, 24 Apr - 6:30 PM

Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze

Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 6:30 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

Afimico Pululu - 90+3'

Rafal Janicki - 90+8' (P)

Bartosz Mazurek - 64' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Jagiellonia Białystok faced Górnik Zabrze at home in a closely contested match that concluded 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The home team held 61% possession throughout, dominating midfield battles but struggling to create clear scoring chances. The first half ended 0-0, with both sides showing defensive solidity and limited attacking penetration. Górnik Zabrze, identified as the stronger team pre-match, capitalized in the second half, scoring twice while conceding once. Jagiellonia's response came too late to alter the outcome. No red cards were issued, maintaining a full complement of players on both sides. This result highlights Górnik's clinical finishing against Jagiellonia's possession-heavy approach, resulting in a significant structural deviation of 96.4%. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with typical patterns, and the absence of key events like ejections preserved the game's natural flow.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Górnik Zabrze recorded a 96.4% structural deviation, deemed significant.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with established norms.
xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations were unassessable without relevant metrics.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events altered the match dynamics.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards resulted in no distortion to the scoreline.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

T. Kwiatkowski

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

A. Siemieniec

M. Gašparík

1.22

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.35

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

16 - 7 - 13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Jagiellonia Białystok

4.06%

Draw

92.36%

Górnik Zabrze

3.59%

Team Power Ranking

27.32

29.81

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze

Power Score

27.32

29.81

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score

Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Górnik Zabrze

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.46

29.10

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

29.10

32.46

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Jagiellonia Białystok +0.31 Efficiency Index

Górnik Zabrze -0.31 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Jagiellonia Białystok Górnik Zabrze

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Jagiellonia Białystok

Górnik Zabrze

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Jagiellonia Białystok had peak pressure around 50'.
Jagiellonia Białystok started the game with stronger pressure.

Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure Górnik Zabrze Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Jagiellonia Białystok reached the top pressure at 50' (70.86).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home

36 matches

Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:01:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

50 S. Abramowicz

15 N. Wojtuszek

13 B. Cardoso Vital

4 Y. Kobayashi

23 G. Serrão Montóia

6 T. Romanczuk

86 B. Mazurek

77 K. Szmyt

11 J. Imaz Ballesté

19 M. Leiva Esquivel

10 A. Pululu

1 M. Łubik

67 O. Zmrzlý

20 J. Sánchez Guillén

26 R. Janicki

61 M. Sáček

14 J. Kubicki

8 P. Hellebrand

33 M. Khlan

13 L. Sadílek

15 R. Massimo

7 Y. Ikia Dimi

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 24, 2026, 06:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Miejski

Capacity :

22372

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Statistics

Possession

Jagiellonia Białystok

58%

Górnik Zabrze

42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

2 Big Chances Created 2

9 Shots 5

36 Dangerous attacks 27

61 Possession 39

7 Corners 2

14 Free kicks 12

4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

16 Throwins 13

30 Dribble Attempts 14

13 Successful Dribbles 4

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29

5 Goal Kicks 5

71 Ball Safe 78

1 Injuries 2

11 Goal Attempts 6

1 Hit Woodwork 0

4 Substitutions 4

0 Penalties 1

Attacking

76 Attacks 76

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 78

27 Long Passes 51

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

512 Passes 325

9 Key Passes 7

433 Successful Passes 254

9 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

4 Interceptions 11

59 Duels Won 49

3 Saves 7

19 Tackles 21

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 7

6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 14

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski

Manager ▼

A. Siemieniec Coach

Starting XI ▼

Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper

6.94

Yuki Kobayashi Defender

6.65

Zachary Zalewski

Midfielder80'

6.57

Bernardo Vital Defender

7.07

Norbert Wojtuszek Defender

6.92

Guilherme Montóia Defender

6.91

Bartlomiej Wdowik

Defender80'

7.09

Taras Romanczuk Midfielder

7.04

Jesús Imaz Midfielder

7.3

Matías Nahuel Midfielder

6.77

Samed Bazdar

Attacker62'

6.75

Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder

6.6

Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder

6.82

Sergio Lozano

Midfielder77'

6.84

Afimico Pululu Attacker

7.04

Substitutes ▼

Samed Bazdar

Attacker62'

6.75

Sergio Lozano

Midfielder77'

6.84

Bartlomiej Wdowik

Defender80'

7.09

Zachary Zalewski

Midfielder80'

6.57

Bench ▼

Adrian Damasiewicz Goalkeeper

Apostolos Konstantopoulos Defender

6.78

Andy Pelmard Defender

6.79

Dawid Drachal Midfielder

6.69

Kamil Jozwiak Midfielder

6.74

Eryk Kozlowski Midfielder

6.6

Dimitris Rallis Attacker

6.66

Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski