Istra 1961 vs Vukovar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Sat, 18 Apr - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
1 Winner 2
Vukovar Vukovar
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Vinko Rozic - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Jakov Puljic - 75' (P)
Simun Butic - 36'

CONTEXT

In a stunning upset in the Croatian First League, Vukovar triumphed 2-1 over favored home side Istra 1961, who dominated possession with 72% to Vukovar's 28%. The match was level at 1-1 at halftime, reflecting Istra's early control, but Vukovar struck decisively in the second half to claim victory. As the stronger team on paper, Istra's inability to convert their territorial advantage into goals exposed vulnerabilities, while Vukovar's clinical finishing proved decisive. No red cards marred the contest, and without notable tactical shifts, the game hinged on efficiency in limited opportunities. This outcome represents a significant structural deviation, underscoring how underdogs can defy dominance through sharp execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vukovar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations amid Istra's heavy possession advantage.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevented any alignment verification with the final scoreline.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market views found no alignment with Vukovar's unexpected triumph.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures left expectations against the result unassessable.
  • Event impact: Empty second-half adjustments list indicated no major events swayed momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured the scoreline faced no dismissal-related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Čulina

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Maloča

2nd Assistant

I. Martinčić

4th Official

A. Marić

1st Assistant

Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
VS
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.79
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
42.83%
Draw
27.47%
Away Vukovar
29.7%

Movement

Changes since opening
Istra 1961
+42.64%
Draw
+22.38%
Vukovar
-65.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.48
14.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Power Score
22.48
14.44
League Position
7
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Vukovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vukovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.42
36.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.61
30.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 -0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Vukovar +0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Vukovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vukovar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Vukovar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Vukovar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Vukovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Istra 1961
vs
Vukovar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961 Vukovar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961 0.17
Vukovar 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Vukovar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961 0.04
Vukovar 0.01
Istra 1961
Vukovar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Istra 1961 had peak pressure around 2'.
  • Istra 1961 started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Istra 1961 Pressure Vukovar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Istra 1961 reached the top pressure at 2' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
3 matches
Vukovar Vukovar Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:06:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
A. Kadušić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
97 A. Kadušić
F. Taraba
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
M. Heister
Germany
26 M. Heister
S. Lončar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
L. Štulac
Substitution
Slovenia
23 L. Štulac
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
A. Mauric
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
V. Rozić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 V. Rozić
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
Pitch
M. Bulat
Croatia
1 M. Bulat
K. Cabrajic
Substitution
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
M. Živković
Croatia
14 M. Živković
J. Gurlica
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
N. Vlasenko
Switzerland
5 N. Vlasenko
V. Čaić
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
E. Shabani
Albania
77 E. Shabani
L. Banovec
Substitution
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
R. Gonzales
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
J. Puljić
Croatia
21 J. Puljić

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity :
9800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marko Maloča
Ivana Martinčić
Ante Čulina
Anto Marić

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
67%
Vukovar
33%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 2
98 Dangerous attacks 45
72 Possession 28
8 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
16 Dribble Attempts 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 3
0 Penalties 1
8 Successful Dribbles 3
7 Goal Kicks 18
20 Throwins 9
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

139 Attacks 76
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

61 Long Passes 50
561 Passes 228
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
478 Successful Passes 156
85 Successful Passes Percentage 68
36 Successful Long Passes 18
12 Key Passes 4

Defensive

4 Interceptions 14
1 Saves 2
11 Tackles 14
43 Duels Won 40

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 1
34 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.94
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
6.54
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
6.75
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
6.7
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Defender
6.83
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Midfielder
6.61
29
Allen Obando
Allen Obando
Attacker81'
6.58
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Midfielder
6.8
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
6.86
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
6.94
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican
Attacker67'
6.5
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Midfielder
6.71
25
Gustavo Albarracín
Gustavo Albarracín
Midfielder80'
6.16
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
6.91
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

1
Marino Bulat
Marino Bulat Goalkeeper
6.75
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Defender
6.05
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Defender
6.54
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
6.51
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
6.5
7
Kerim Çalhanoğlu
Kerim Çalhanoğlu
Defender90+6'
6.72
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
6.86
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
6.57
19
Alen Jurilj
Alen Jurilj
Midfielder87'
6.65
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
6.76
11
Lovre Kulusic
Lovre Kulusic
Attacker78'
6.26
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
6.9
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6.71
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
7.01

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Allen Obando
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+17'
90+15'
Event
Robin González
Goal disallowed
90+7'
Event
Marino Bulat
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Kerim Çalhanoğlu → Kristijan Cabrajic
6th Substitution
Event
Antonio Mauric
Goal disallowed
90+2'
87'
Event
Alen Jurilj → Simun Butic
5th Substitution
Event
Allen Obando → Vinko Rozic
4th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Lovre Kulusic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Gustavo Albarracín → Leo Stulac
3rd Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Lovre Kulusic → Lovro Banovec
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Jakov Puljic
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Silvio Gorican → Emil Frederiksen
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Stjepan Loncar
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Vito Caic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
Event
Simun Butic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
Event
Jakov Puljic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Vinko Rozic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Vukovar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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