Istra 1961 vs Slaven Koprivnica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Mon, 4 May - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
3 Winner 1
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
Full Time Mon, 4 May 4:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Vinko Rozic - 63'
Smail Prevljak - 23', 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Marko Dabro - 38'

CONTEXT

Istra 1961 claimed a convincing 3-1 victory over Slaven Koprivnica, solidifying their position with a strong home performance. The match saw Istra take a 2-1 lead at halftime, building on early momentum despite Slaven's slight possession advantage of 52% to 48%. Istra's attackers converted key chances efficiently, pulling ahead in the second half without any interruptions from red cards. The game flowed openly, allowing Istra to exploit defensive lapses from the visitors. This outcome reflects Istra's designation as the stronger team, marked by a significant 51.6% structural deviation in their favor. Possession parity did little to hinder Istra's control, as they maintained composure and precision under pressure. Slaven fought back initially but couldn't sustain the challenge, highlighting Istra's tactical edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Istra 1961 recorded a significant 51.6% structural deviation in their performance.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without recorded data.
  • Event impact: No major events influenced the match progression.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Dragasevic

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Maloča

2nd Assistant

Croatia

A. Marić

1st Assistant

Croatia

A. Čulina

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.34
Yellow cards / match 3.18
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.36
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
VS
Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Vukovar Rank: 54 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 60 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 73 L
Varaždin Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 55 D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 D
Varaždin Rank: 63 L
Rijeka Rank: 71 L
Osijek Rank: 63 D
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 28 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
48.35%
Draw
26.92%
Away Slaven Koprivnica
24.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
Istra 1961
-49.49%
Draw
+25%
Slaven Koprivnica
+24.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.83
61.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Slaven Koprivnica
Power Score
62.83
61.32
League Position
6
8
Global Rank
404
439

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Slaven Koprivnica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.38
54.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.81
29.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 -2.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Slaven Koprivnica +2.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Slaven Koprivnica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Slaven Koprivnica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Istra 1961
vs
Slaven Koprivnica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961 Slaven Koprivnica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961 0.18
Slaven Koprivnica 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Slaven Koprivnica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961 0.01
Slaven Koprivnica 0.05
Istra 1961
Slaven Koprivnica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Istra 1961 had peak pressure around 61'.
  • Slaven Koprivnica started the game with stronger pressure.
Istra 1961 Pressure Slaven Koprivnica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Istra 1961 reached the top pressure at 61' (96.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 66 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
66 matches
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Away
Match Record
17
Wins
21
28
Draws
28
21
Losses
17
Goals
72
Goals Scored
81
81
Goals Conceded
72
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:01:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
F. Taraba
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
S. Miettinen
Finland
16 S. Miettinen
R. Hrvatin
Substitution
Slovenia
44 R. Hrvatin
S. Lončar
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
J. Radošević
Croatia
5 J. Radošević
M. Heister
Substitution
Germany
26 M. Heister
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
V. Rozić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 V. Rozić
Pitch
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
M. Petrovic
Substitution
Serbia
20 M. Petrovic
V. Međimorec
Croatia
2 V. Međimorec
Z. Katalinić
Croatia
5 Z. Katalinić
A. Grgić
Substitution
Croatia
27 A. Grgić
L. Bošnjak
Croatia
24 L. Bošnjak
I. Ćubelić
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
F. Krušelj
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
I. Lepinjica
Substitution
Croatia
23 I. Lepinjica
M. Dabro
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Dabro

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity :
9800
Attendance :
1063
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marko Maloča
Filip Dragasevic
Anto Marić
Ante Čulina

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
48%
Slaven Koprivnica
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 10
62 Dangerous attacks 90
48 Possession 52
6 Corners 12
8 Free kicks 9

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 9
20 Throwins 20
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
3 Assists 1
7 Successful Dribbles 3
15 Goal Kicks 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

94 Attacks 120
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

301 Successful Passes 317
28 Successful Long Passes 28
375 Passes 397
80 Successful Passes Percentage 80
9 Key Passes 18
59 Long Passes 58
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

40 Duels Won 39
11 Interceptions 8
4 Saves 1
10 Tackles 14

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 6
22 Total Crosses 26

Discipline

2 Offsides 6
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Filip Dragasevic

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.93
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defender
6.44
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
6.54
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
6.73
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic Midfielder
6.87
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
6.86
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac
Midfielder87'
6.76
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Midfielder
6.72
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić
Defender76'
6.62
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Midfielder
5.87
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic
Defender66'
6.81
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Attacker
6.63
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric
Midfielder76'
6.8
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
2
6.88
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Attacker
6.94
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder67'
6.47
Referee : Filip Dragasevic

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
6.65
2
Vinko Medjimorec
Vinko Medjimorec Defender
6.57
5
Zvonimir Katalinic
Zvonimir Katalinic Defender
6.5
20
Marko Petrovic
Marko Petrovic Defender
6.51
26
Gabrijel Sivalec
Gabrijel Sivalec
Attacker67'
6.53
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Midfielder
6.77
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
6.97
24
Leon Bošnjak
Leon Bošnjak Midfielder
6.18
27
Alen Grgic
Alen Grgic Midfielder
6.66
13
Marko Leskovic
Marko Leskovic
Defender57'
6.41
7
Marko Dabro
Marko Dabro Attacker
6.54
29
Marko Aščić
Marko Aščić
Attacker75'
6.87
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Attacker
6.73
23
Igor Lepinjica
Igor Lepinjica Attacker
6.5
19
Ernis Qestaj
Ernis Qestaj
Attacker75'
6.44

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Leo Stulac → Stjepan Loncar
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Antonio Mauric → Vinko Rozic
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Niko Šepić → Marcel Heister
8th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Marko Aščić → Marko Dabro
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Ernis Qestaj → Igor Lepinjica
6th Substitution
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Emil Frederiksen
3rd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Gabrijel Sivalec → Marko Petrovic
4th Substitution
Event
Advan Kadusic → R. Hrvatin
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Vinko Rozic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
63'
57'
Event
Marko Leskovic → Alen Grgic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Marko Dabro
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Smail Prevljak
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
Event
Smail Prevljak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Leo Stulac is on, and Stjepan Loncar is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Marko Leskovic takes a shot with his head but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Mauric takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Mauric takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Antonio Mauric is on, and Vinko Rozic is off.
76
Update Update
Niko Sepic replaces Marcel Heister.
75
Update Update
Ernis Qestaj comes on for Igor Lepinjica.
75
Update Update
Marko Ascic is on, and Marko Dabro is off.
73
Attempt Attempt
Gabrijel Sivalec takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Gabrijel Sivalec replaces Marko Petrovic.
67
Update Update
Dukan Ahmeti is on, and Emil Frederiksen is off.
66
Attempt Attempt
Marko Dabro takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Advan Kadusic replaces Rene Hrvatin.
65
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a header but misses the shot.
63
Update Update
Marko Leskovic's header is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Vinko Rozic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
57
Update Update
Marko Leskovic comes on for Alen Grgic.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ljuban Crepulja takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Zvonimir Katalinic attempted a header but missed the shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic's right-footed shot is blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Marko Dabro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen's left-footed shot is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Marko Dabro takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Samuli Miettinen's header is saved.
38
Update Update
Marko Dabro scores with a header.
36
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Heister takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Zvonimir Katalinic's header is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Alen Grgic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Marko Petrovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen takes a left-footed shot, but it hits the post.
23
Attempt Attempt
Filip Kruselj takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak scores with a right-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
20
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Heister takes a left-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Leon Bosnjak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak scores with a right-footed shot.
4
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Cubelic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Igor Lepinjica's left-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Istra 1961's 3-1 triumph over Slaven Koprivnica demonstrates their growing authority at home, converting a halftime 2-1 edge into a comfortable win. Overcoming a minor possession deficit, Istra's sharp finishing and defensive resilience proved pivotal, aligning seamlessly with their stronger team status. Without red cards or disruptive adjustments, the result underscores efficient execution and significant deviation from norms. Slaven's efforts yielded only a brief equalizer, exposing conversion issues. This victory enhances Istra's momentum, setting a positive trajectory while Slaven must address finishing woes to climb the table.

Istra 1961 vs Slaven Koprivnica preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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