Istra 1961 vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Sun, 17 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Versus
Rijeka Rijeka
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 4:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 1. HNL regular season at Stadion Aldo Drosina, fifth-placed Istra 1961 face third-placed Rijeka in a key 2025/2026 matchup. Istra aim to challenge the top half, while Rijeka seek to maintain their strong position. Rijeka hold a decisive 7.4-point power advantage, with their 71.03 rating outpacing Istra's 63.67, signaling structural superiority. Form metrics reinforce this, as Rijeka's 19.39 score dwarfs Istra's 11.94, highlighting recent momentum. League standings reflect Rijeka's consistency in domestic play. Detailed form records and last outings are unavailable, but power ratings suggest Rijeka's edge in transitions and overall play. Set piece and efficiency stats lack xG data, with low confidence proxies used, limiting deep analysis. Istra's home advantage could spark an upset, yet Rijeka's metrics point to control.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Rijeka holds a 7.4-point power advantage with 71.03 rating over Istra 1961's 63.67.
  • Form: Rijeka's form score of 19.39 exceeds Istra 1961's 11.94.
  • Squad: Istra 1961 sit 5th and Rijeka 3rd in the 1. HNL domestic table.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition statistics unavailable for both sides.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to absent xG metrics and low confidence.
  • xVariable: xG variable analysis not provided for the teams.
  • Market: Baseline split: Istra 1961 21.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.1% (Δ+0%) | Rijeka 51.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Vukovar Rank: 56 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 57 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 71 D
Varaždin Rank: 65 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 D
Osijek Rank: 62 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 15 - 42
42
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
21.74%
Draw
27.13%
Away Rijeka
51.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.67
71.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Rijeka
Power Score
63.67
71.03
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
373
184

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Rijeka

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
64 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
7
Wins
42
15
Draws
15
42
Losses
7
Goals
45
Goals Scored
120
120
Goals Conceded
45
-75
Goal Difference
+75

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:05:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
F. Kolić
1 F. Kolić
F. Taraba
24 F. Taraba
R. Kumar
38 R. Kumar
S. Miettinen
16 S. Miettinen
R. Hrvatin
44 R. Hrvatin
S. Lončar
10 S. Lončar
J. Radošević
5 J. Radošević
M. Heister
26 M. Heister
E. Frederiksen
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
9 S. Prevljak
V. Rozić
7 V. Rozić
Pitch
M. Zlomislić
13 M. Zlomislić
M. Devetak
34 M. Devetak
S. Radeljić
6 S. Radeljić
A. Majstorović
45 A. Majstorović
A. Oreč
22 A. Oreč
A. Barco Del Solar
55 A. Barco Del Solar
B. Pavić
66 B. Pavić
J. Lasickas
23 J. Lasickas
T. Dantas
26 T. Dantas
A. Gojak
14 A. Gojak
D. Adu-Adjei
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity :
9800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ante Terzić

Expected Lineup

Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.94
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Midfielder
6.72
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Midfielder
6.33
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Attacker
6.94
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Attacker
6.69
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Centre Forward
6.94
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Left Back
6.51
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Right Back
6.59
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Centre Back
6.77
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic Central Midfield
6.9
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Central Midfield
6.87
Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6.68
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Centre Forward
6.83
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Right Wing
6.67
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Right Back
7
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Defensive Midfield
6.88
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Left Wing
6.73
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Left Back
7.01
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Attacking Midfield
7.32
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Left Back
6.71
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Right Back
6.91
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Defensive Midfield
6.5

CONCLUSION

Rijeka arrive as clear favorites, bolstered by superior power, form, and league standing against Istra 1961. At home, Istra could leverage crowd support for a gritty display, but Rijeka's 7.4-point edge suggests dominance in structure and transitions. Absent detailed efficiency or set piece insights, the focus falls on Rijeka's consistency to secure points. Istra must disrupt early to exploit any visitor complacency. This clash tests Istra's resolve versus Rijeka's quality, with the latter poised to extend their top-three stay.

Istra 1961 vs Rijeka preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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