İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
3 Winner 0
Samsunspor Samsunspor
Full Time Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Abbosbek Fayzullaev - 78'
Yusuf Sarı - 43'
Eldor Shomurodov - 6' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

İstanbul Başakşehir delivered a dominant 3-0 home win against Samsunspor, showcasing clinical efficiency despite controlling just 40% possession to the visitors' 60%. The hosts struck twice in the first half for a 2-0 lead at halftime, then added a third goal in the second period to secure the victory. As the pre-identified stronger team, Başakşehir's performance resulted in a significant 46.7% structural deviation in their favor, underlining their superiority on the day. Samsunspor, despite territorial dominance, failed to convert chances into goals, highlighting Başakşehir's defensive solidity. With no red cards or major disruptions, the match unfolded smoothly, aligning with expectations for the home side. This result reinforces Başakşehir's strong form in the league, providing a crucial boost to their campaign while exposing Samsunspor's struggles away from home.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Başakşehir's 3-0 win featured a significant 46.7% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market favoring Başakşehir at 53.3%.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Hasova

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Bahadır

4th Official

Türkiye

O. Kamacı

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

S. Altay

1st Assistant

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.4
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.32
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 W
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 D
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 87 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 W
Eyüpspor Rank: 64 W
Rizespor Rank: 70 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home İstanbul Başakşehir
53.32%
Draw
23.98%
Away Samsunspor
22.71%

Movement

Changes since opening
İstanbul Başakşehir
-41.8%
Draw
+20.28%
Samsunspor
+21.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.61
73.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Power Score
75.61
73.96
League Position
6
7
Global Rank
109
132

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
İstanbul Başakşehir
vs
Samsunspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Samsunspor 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
İstanbul Başakşehir Samsunspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Samsunspor 0.00
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • IBA had peak pressure around 85'.
  • IBA started the game with stronger pressure.
IBA Pressure Samsunspor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: IBA reached the top pressure at 85' (71.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Home
7 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
5
Goals
14
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
14
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T16:30:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Şengezer
Türkiye
16 M. Şengezer
Ö. Şahiner
Türkiye
42 Ö. Şahiner
L. Duarte da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
J. Opoku
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
K. Karataş
Türkiye
88 K. Karataş
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
M. Crespo da Silva
Substitution
Portugal
13 M. Crespo da Silva
Y. Sari
Substitution
Türkiye
7 Y. Sari
E. Shomurodov
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
A. Harit
Substitution
Morocco
25 A. Harit
B. Yıldırım
Substitution
Türkiye
91 B. Yıldırım
Pitch
O. Kocuk
Türkiye
1 O. Kocuk
L. Tómasson
Iceland
17 L. Tómasson
R. van Drongelen
Netherlands
4 R. van Drongelen
Ľ. Šatka
Substitution
Slovakia
37 Ľ. Šatka
J. Wooding Mendes
Substitution
Sweden
2 J. Wooding Mendes
A. Makoumbou
France
29 A. Makoumbou
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
E. Tavsan
Substitution
Netherlands
7 E. Tavsan
Y. Cift
Substitution
Türkiye
55 Y. Cift
P. Ndiaye
Senegal
19 P. Ndiaye
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
Capacity :
17156
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Süleyman Bahadır
Ogün Kamacı
Gürcan Hasova
Selahattin Altay

Statistics

Possession
IBA
45%
Samsunspor
55%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 2
15 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 36
40 Possession 60
2 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

22 Successful Headers 13
18 Throwins 14
8 Dribble Attempts 14
2 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
5 Substitutions 4
10 Goal Kicks 13
2 Goal Attempts 1
21 Ball Safe 30
1 Injuries 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

97 Attacks 69
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

57 Long Passes 64
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
30 Successful Long Passes 22
232 Successful Passes 367
303 Passes 454
77 Successful Passes Percentage 81
17 Key Passes 8

Defensive

13 Tackles 11
7 Interceptions 5
49 Duels Won 45
1 Saves 3

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.05
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
6.82
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
6.99
27
Ousseynou Ba
Ousseynou Ba
Defender76'
6.73
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender
6.7
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Defender
6.55
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
7.19
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic
Attacker76'
6.88
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
6.92
13
Miguel Crespo
Miguel Crespo Midfielder
6.84
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün
Midfielder76'
6.63
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
7.25
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Midfielder
7.06
11
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Midfielder70'
6.98
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Attacker
6.84
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke
Attacker24'
6.86
Referee : Gürcan Hasova

Starting XI ▼

1
Okan Kocuk
Okan Kocuk Goalkeeper
6.71
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Defender
6.51
18
Zeki Yavru
Zeki Yavru
Defender86'
6.81
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen Defender
7.03
17
Logi Tómasson
Logi Tómasson Defender
6.84
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka Defender
6.75
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković
Defender21'
6.65
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Midfielder
6.86
23
Enes Albak
Enes Albak
Defender86'
4.94
19
Cherif Ndiaye
Cherif Ndiaye Midfielder
6.91
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
7.12
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou Midfielder
6.87
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift Midfielder
6.71
77
Afonso Sousa
Afonso Sousa
Midfielder74'
6.85
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
6.82

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Enes Albak → Elayis Tavsan
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Zeki Yavru → Joe Mendes
9th Substitution
Event
Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Ivan Brnic → Yusuf Sarı
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Onur Ergün → Miguel Crespo
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Ousseynou Ba → Léo Duarte
5th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Afonso Sousa → Yunus Emre Çift
4th Substitution
Event
Abbosbek Fayzullaev → Amine Harit
3rd Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Joe Mendes
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Amine Harit
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Jerome Opoku
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
Event
Yusuf Sarı
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
43'
41'
Event
Antoine Makoumbou
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Davie Selke → Bertuğ Yıldırım
2nd Substitution
24'
21'
Event
Toni Borevković → Lubomir Satka
1st Substitution
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
6'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Logi Tomasson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Enes Albak comes on for Elayis Tavsan.
86
Update Update
Zeki Yavru comes on for Josafat Mendes.
85
Attempt Attempt
Davie Selke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Elayis Tavsan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Kazimcan Karatas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Abbosbek Fayzullayev takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
78
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Kemendi's right-footed shot is saved.
76
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Brnic is substituted for Yusuf Sari.
76
Update Update
Onur Ergun comes on for Miguel Crespo da Silva.
76
Update Update
Ousseynou Ba comes on for Leonardo Duarte Da Silva.
74
Update Update
Afonso Sousa replaces Yunus Cift.
70
Update Update
Abbosbek Fayzullayev comes on for Amine Harit.
70
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Sari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Marius Mouandilmadji takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Sari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Davie Selke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Olivier Kemendi's header is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Carlo Holse takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Toni Borevkovic takes a header shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Davie Selke takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Amine Harit takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
45
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Kemendi has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Sari takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Eldor Shomurodov attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Sari scores with a right-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Yunus Cift's left-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Makoumbou takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Crespo da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Elayis Tavsan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Yusuf Sari's left-footed shot is saved.
24
Update Update
Davie Selke comes on for Bertug Yildirim.
21
Update Update
Toni Borevkovic comes on for Lubomir Satka.
19
Attempt Attempt
Bertug Yildirim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Bertug Yildirim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Eldor Shomurodov scores, making it 1-0.
6
Attempt Attempt
Eldor Shomurodov takes a right-footed shot and scores.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gurcan Hasova.

CONCLUSION

Başakşehir's 3-0 triumph over Samsunspor stands as a testament to their attacking prowess and defensive resilience, overcoming possession deficits through sharp finishing. The significant structural deviation of 46.7% captures how they exceeded norms, while market alignment confirms pre-game favoritism was justified. Without red card interference or xG data to complicate narratives, the performance merits full credit to the winners. Samsunspor's inability to capitalize on 60% possession raises questions about their finishing. This victory propels İstanbul Başakşehir up the table, enhancing momentum for upcoming fixtures, whereas Samsunspor must address inefficiencies to climb standings.

İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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