İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye

Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu Fri, 24 Apr - 5:00 PM

Super Lig

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa

Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 31 Regular Season

Eldor Shomurodov - 87', 5'

Davie Selke - 81'

Bertuğ Yıldırım - 22'

Rodrigo Becão 44'

CONTEXT

İstanbul Başakşehir delivered a commanding performance, securing a 4-0 win over Kasımpaşa in a match that showcased their superiority from start to finish. The home side raced into a 2-0 halftime lead, dominating possession with 68% to the visitors' 32%. Their clinical finishing and defensive solidity overwhelmed Kasımpaşa, who struggled to create meaningful chances. A pivotal moment came in the second half when Kasımpaşa received a red card, tilting the game further in Başakşehir's favor and allowing the hosts to add two more goals. As the pre-identified stronger team, Başakşehir's victory aligned with expectations, marked by a significant 44.6% structural deviation in their performance metrics. Despite the absence of xG data, the result reflected their control and efficiency. Kasımpaşa could not recover, finishing well beaten.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: İstanbul Başakşehir exhibited a significant 44.6% structural deviation exceeding expectations.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable expected goals data.
Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as the stronger home team secured the predicted victory.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data availability.
Event impact: Away red card decisively shifted momentum toward home dominance post-halftime.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion primarily influenced second-half adjustments and scoreline expansion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

Y. Arslan

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Çiçek

1st Assistant

?. Gültekin

4th Official

M. Gözütok

2nd Assistant

N. Şahin

E. Belözoğlu

1.95

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.05

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

21 - 4 - 6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

İstanbul Başakşehir

55.39%

Draw

24.07%

Kasımpaşa

20.54%

Movement

Changes since opening

İstanbul Başakşehir

-42.47%

Draw

+22.15%

Kasımpaşa

+20.32%

Team Power Ranking

28.79

21.26

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

İstanbul Başakşehir

Kasımpaşa

Power Score

28.79

21.26

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score

Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

23.97

17.97

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

17.97

23.97

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

İstanbul Başakşehir +0.60 Efficiency Index

Kasımpaşa -0.60 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Kasımpaşa

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa

Created Set-piece attacking threat

İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Kasımpaşa

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

İstanbul Başakşehir

Kasımpaşa

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

İstanbul Başakşehir

Kasımpaşa

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

IBA had peak pressure around 93'.
IBA started the game with stronger pressure.

IBA Pressure Kasımpaşa Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: IBA reached the top pressure at 93' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Home

31 matches

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+32

Goal Difference

-32

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:00:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

16 M. Şengezer

42 Ö. Şahiner

5 L. Duarte da Silva

27 O. Ba

88 K. Karataş

8 O. Kemen

20 U. Güneş

7 Y. Sari

14 E. Shomurodov

25 A. Harit

91 B. Yıldırım

1 A. Gianniotis

21 G. Owusu Frimpong

4 A. Arous

50 R. Nascimiento Franca

2 C. Winck Neto

16 A. Baldursson

8 C. Ribeiro Dias

34 F. Diabaté

26 K. Demirbay

71 İ. Kahveci

19 A. Benedyczak

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 24, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Capacity :

17156

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Samet Çiçek

Ömer Faruk Gültekin

Murat Ergin Gözütok

Yiğit Arslan

Statistics

Possession

IBA

66%

Kasımpaşa

34%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0

7 Big Chances Created 0

8 Shots 2

46 Dangerous attacks 15

68 Possession 32

6 Corners 2

8 Free kicks 14

3 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

15 Successful Dribbles 5

71 Ball Safe 67

15 Throwins 14

71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

9 Successful Headers 10

21 Dribble Attempts 7

6 Goal Kicks 8

3 Assists 0

11 Goal Attempts 5

5 Substitutions 4

0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 53

4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

83 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

92 Successful Passes Percentage 75

59 Successful Long Passes 22

536 Successful Passes 203

71 Long Passes 54

582 Passes 272

11 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Tackles 13

2 Saves 4

1 Interceptions 3

36 Duels Won 39

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 3

29 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

14 Fouls 8

2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Manager ▼

N. Şahin Coach

Starting XI ▼

Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper

7.04

Léo Duarte Defender

Hamza Güreler

Defender69'

6.61

Ousseynou Ba Defender

6.74

Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender

6.71

Onur Bulut

Defender46'

6.67

Kazımcan Karataş Defender

6.55

Yusuf Sarı Midfielder

7.2

Ivan Brnic

Attacker60'

6.81

Olivier Kemen Midfielder

6.85

Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder

7.25

Umut Güneş Midfielder

6.72

Onur Ergün

Midfielder82'

6.62

Amine Harit Midfielder

7.03

Bertuğ Yıldırım Attacker

6.83

Davie Selke

Attacker60'

6.84

Substitutes ▼

Onur Bulut

Defender46'

6.67

Ivan Brnic

Attacker60'

6.81

Davie Selke

Attacker60'

6.84

Hamza Güreler

Defender69'

6.61

Onur Ergün

Midfielder82'

6.62

Bench ▼

Doğan Alemdar Goalkeeper

Festy Ebosele Defender

6.52

Miguel Crespo Midfielder

6.84

Jakub Kaluzinski Midfielder

6.82

Nuno Da Costa Attacker

6.78

Referee : Yiğit Arslan