İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu Fri, 24 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
4 Winner 0
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Eldor Shomurodov - 87', 5'
Davie Selke - 81'
Bertuğ Yıldırım - 22'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Rodrigo Becão 44'

CONTEXT

İstanbul Başakşehir delivered a commanding performance, securing a 4-0 win over Kasımpaşa in a match that showcased their superiority from start to finish. The home side raced into a 2-0 halftime lead, dominating possession with 68% to the visitors' 32%. Their clinical finishing and defensive solidity overwhelmed Kasımpaşa, who struggled to create meaningful chances. A pivotal moment came in the second half when Kasımpaşa received a red card, tilting the game further in Başakşehir's favor and allowing the hosts to add two more goals. As the pre-identified stronger team, Başakşehir's victory aligned with expectations, marked by a significant 44.6% structural deviation in their performance metrics. Despite the absence of xG data, the result reflected their control and efficiency. Kasımpaşa could not recover, finishing well beaten.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: İstanbul Başakşehir exhibited a significant 44.6% structural deviation exceeding expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed as the stronger home team secured the predicted victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data availability.
  • Event impact: Away red card decisively shifted momentum toward home dominance post-halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion primarily influenced second-half adjustments and scoreline expansion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Y. Arslan

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Çiçek

1st Assistant

?. Gültekin

4th Official

M. Gözütok

2nd Assistant

İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
VS
Kasımpaşa E. Belözoğlu
E. Belözoğlu
1.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Antalyaspor Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
Göztepe Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alanyaspor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home İstanbul Başakşehir
55.39%
Draw
24.07%
Away Kasımpaşa
20.54%

Movement

Changes since opening
İstanbul Başakşehir
-42.47%
Draw
+22.15%
Kasımpaşa
+20.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.79
21.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
İstanbul Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
Power Score
28.79
21.26
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Kasımpaşa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kasımpaşa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.97
17.97
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.97
23.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
İstanbul Başakşehir +0.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Kasımpaşa -0.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

İstanbul Başakşehir ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kasımpaşa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
İstanbul Başakşehir
vs
Kasımpaşa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.30
Kasımpaşa 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
İstanbul Başakşehir Kasımpaşa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Kasımpaşa 0.09
İstanbul Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • IBA had peak pressure around 93'.
  • IBA started the game with stronger pressure.
IBA Pressure Kasımpaşa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: IBA reached the top pressure at 93' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Home
31 matches
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa Away
Match Record
21
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
21
Goals
69
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
69
+32
Goal Difference
-32

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:00:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Şengezer
Türkiye
16 M. Şengezer
Ö. Şahiner
Substitution
Türkiye
42 Ö. Şahiner
L. Duarte da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
O. Ba
Senegal
27 O. Ba
K. Karataş
Türkiye
88 K. Karataş
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
U. Güneş
Substitution
Türkiye
20 U. Güneş
Y. Sari
Substitution
Türkiye
7 Y. Sari
E. Shomurodov
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
A. Harit
Morocco
25 A. Harit
B. Yıldırım
Substitution
Türkiye
91 B. Yıldırım
Pitch
A. Gianniotis
Greece
1 A. Gianniotis
G. Owusu Frimpong
Netherlands
21 G. Owusu Frimpong
A. Arous
Tunisia
4 A. Arous
R. Nascimiento Franca
Brazil
50 R. Nascimiento Franca
C. Winck Neto
Brazil
2 C. Winck Neto
A. Baldursson
Iceland
16 A. Baldursson
C. Ribeiro Dias
Substitution
Portugal
8 C. Ribeiro Dias
F. Diabaté
Mali
34 F. Diabaté
K. Demirbay
Substitution
Germany
26 K. Demirbay
İ. Kahveci
Substitution
Türkiye
71 İ. Kahveci
A. Benedyczak
Substitution
Poland
19 A. Benedyczak

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 24, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu
Capacity :
17156
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Samet Çiçek
Ömer Faruk Gültekin
Murat Ergin Gözütok
Yiğit Arslan

Statistics

Possession
IBA
66%
Kasımpaşa
34%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
7 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 2
46 Dangerous attacks 15
68 Possession 32
6 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

15 Successful Dribbles 5
71 Ball Safe 67
15 Throwins 14
71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
9 Successful Headers 10
21 Dribble Attempts 7
6 Goal Kicks 8
3 Assists 0
11 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 53
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

83 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
92 Successful Passes Percentage 75
59 Successful Long Passes 22
536 Successful Passes 203
71 Long Passes 54
582 Passes 272
11 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Tackles 13
2 Saves 4
1 Interceptions 3
36 Duels Won 39

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 3
29 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

14 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
7.04
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
7
15
Hamza Güreler
Hamza Güreler
Defender69'
6.61
27
Ousseynou Ba
Ousseynou Ba Defender
6.74
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender
6.71
6
Onur Bulut
Onur Bulut
Defender46'
6.67
88
Kazımcan Karataş
Kazımcan Karataş Defender
6.55
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
7.2
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic
Attacker60'
6.81
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
6.85
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
2
7.25
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
6.72
4
Onur Ergün
Onur Ergün
Midfielder82'
6.62
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Midfielder
7.03
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım Attacker
6.83
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke
Attacker60'
6.84
Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Starting XI ▼

1
Andreas Gianniotis
Andreas Gianniotis Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Cláudio Winck
Cláudio Winck Defender
6.77
4
Adem Arous
Adem Arous Defender
6.87
21
Godfried Frimpong
Godfried Frimpong Defender
6.54
50
Rodrigo Becão
Rodrigo Becão Defender
6.4
8
Cafú
Cafú Midfielder
6.65
20
Nicholas Opoku
Nicholas Opoku
Defender46'
6.75
16
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Andri Fannar Baldursson Midfielder
6.75
26
Kerem Demirbay
Kerem Demirbay Midfielder
7.04
5
Eyüp Aydın
Eyüp Aydın
Midfielder80'
6.67
34
Fousseni Diabaté
Fousseni Diabaté Midfielder
6.71
71
İrfan Can Kahveci
İrfan Can Kahveci Midfielder
7.19
11
Ali Yavuz Kol
Ali Yavuz Kol
Attacker86'
6.58
19
Adrian Benedyczak
Adrian Benedyczak Attacker
7.05
17
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş
Attacker80'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Header / 4th Goal
87'
86'
Event
Ali Yavuz Kol → İrfan Can Kahveci
9th Substitution
Event
Olivier Kemen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Onur Ergün → Umut Güneş
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Davie Selke
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
80'
Event
Eyüp Aydın → Kerem Demirbay
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Kubilay Kanatsızkuş → Adrian Benedyczak
7th Substitution
Event
Hamza Güreler → Léo Duarte
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Ivan Brnic → Yusuf Sarı
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Davie Selke → Bertuğ Yıldırım
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Onur Bulut → Ömer Ali Şahiner
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Nicholas Opoku → Cafú
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Rodrigo Becão
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
43'
Event
Rodrigo Becão
Card adjusted
Event
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Léo Duarte
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
30'
Event
Andri Fannar Baldursson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
22'
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Goal confirmed
7'
Event
Eldor Shomurodov
Header / 1st Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

İstanbul Başakşehir's 4-0 triumph over Kasımpaşa underscores their status as the stronger outfit, blending possession mastery, sharp finishing, and opportunistic play. The halftime 2-0 buffer set the tone, with the second-half red card to the visitors amplifying the hosts' control and leading to a comprehensive scoreline. This result, featuring true market alignment and notable structural deviation, highlights Başakşehir's tactical discipline amid Kasımpaşa's collapse. Without xG insights, the performance still signals robust efficiency, positioning the winners favorably for future challenges while exposing visitor frailties.

İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.