Ipswich Town vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Portman Road Stadium Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Ipswich Town IPS
3 Winner 0
Queens Park Rangers QPR
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Kasey McAteer - 85'
Jaden Philogene - 9'
George Hirst - 3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Ipswich Town delivered a dominant 3-0 home win against Queens Park Rangers, matching their status as the stronger team. The hosts established control early, leading 2-0 at halftime with goals reflecting their attacking intent. In the second half, they added a third while maintaining 52% possession to QPR's 48%. No red cards disrupted play, allowing Ipswich to dictate the tempo throughout. This result featured a significant 25% structural deviation favoring Ipswich, aligning with pre-match assessments where they held a strong position. Efficiency stayed in line with expectations, and the absence of major events like second-half adjustments kept the game straightforward. QPR struggled to create meaningful chances, underscoring Ipswich's defensive solidity and clinical finishing in a one-sided affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ipswich Town's 3-0 win exhibited a significant 25% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Ward

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. James

1st Assistant

L. Venamore

2nd Assistant

F. Hallam

4th Official

Ipswich Town K. McKenna
K. McKenna
VS
Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: 77 D
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 68 D
Charlton Athletic Rank: 66 W
Middlesbrough Rank: 72 D
Portsmouth Rank: 66 L
Norwich City Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: 70 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Millwall Rank: 74 L
Bristol City Rank: 69 D
Preston North End Rank: 66 D
Watford Rank: 63 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 5 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ipswich Town
75.03%
Draw
15.3%
Away Queens Park Rangers
9.68%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ipswich Town
-22.83%
Draw
+13.38%
Queens Park Rangers
+9.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.66
65.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ipswich Town
Queens Park Rangers
Power Score
68.66
65.13
League Position
2
15
Global Rank
87
325

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ipswich Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Queens Park Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ipswich Town Queens Park Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ipswich Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Queens Park Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ipswich Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.35
29.69
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.69
31.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ipswich Town +0.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Queens Park Rangers -0.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ipswich Town
Queens Park Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ipswich Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ipswich Town Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ipswich Town Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ipswich Town
Queens Park Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ipswich Town
vs
Queens Park Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ipswich Town Queens Park Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ipswich Town 0.30
Queens Park Rangers 0.52
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ipswich Town Queens Park Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ipswich Town 0.00
Queens Park Rangers 0.07
Ipswich Town
Queens Park Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • IPS had peak pressure around 6'.
  • IPS started the game with stronger pressure.
IPS Pressure QPR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: IPS reached the top pressure at 6' (82.80).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ipswich Town IPS Home
25 matches
Queens Park Rangers QPR Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
5
Draws
5
10
Losses
10
Goals
32
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
32
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
C. Walton
England
28 C. Walton
D. Furlong
England
19 D. Furlong
D. O'Shea
Republic of Ireland
26 D. O'Shea
J. Greaves
England
24 J. Greaves
L. Davis
England
3 L. Davis
A. Matusiwa
Netherlands
5 A. Matusiwa
J. Taylor
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
14 J. Taylor
W. Burns
Substitution
Wales
7 W. Burns
M. Nuñez
Substitution
Chile
32 M. Nuñez
J. Philogene-Bidace
Substitution
England
11 J. Philogene-Bidace
G. Hirst
Substitution
England
9 G. Hirst
Pitch
J. Walsh
England
13 J. Walsh
R. Norrington-Davies
Wales
18 R. Norrington-Davies
J. Clarke-Salter
Substitution
England
6 J. Clarke-Salter
R. Edwards
England
37 R. Edwards
A. Mbengue
Senegal
27 A. Mbengue
I. Chair
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Chair
K. Morgan
Substitution
England
21 K. Morgan
J. Varane
France
40 J. Varane
H. Vale
England
20 H. Vale
N. Hautorp Madsen
Substitution
Denmark
24 N. Hautorp Madsen
D. Bennie
Substitution
Australia
23 D. Bennie

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Portman Road Stadium
Capacity :
29673
Attendance :
29636
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gavin Ward
Alex James
Lee Venamore
Farai Hallam

Statistics

Possession
IPS
55%
QPR
45%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 13
46 Dangerous attacks 25
52 Possession 48
4 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

11 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
58 Ball Safe 69
89 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
4 Goal Kicks 12
14 Throwins 16
15 Successful Headers 6
9 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
109 Attacks 67

Possession

432 Passes 398
57 Long Passes 54
10 Key Passes 9
82 Successful Passes Percentage 79
27 Successful Long Passes 15
356 Successful Passes 314
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28

Defensive

8 Interceptions 5
4 Saves 4
50 Duels Won 30
12 Tackles 10

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 7
2 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 16
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

28
Christian Walton
Christian Walton Goalkeeper
6.93
3
Leif Davis
Leif Davis Defender
7.02
19
Darnell Furlong
Darnell Furlong Defender
6.86
24
Jacob Greaves
Jacob Greaves Defender
7.03
26
Dara O'Shea
Dara O'Shea Defender
7.07
5
Azor Matusiwa
Azor Matusiwa Midfielder
6.98
7
Wes Burns
Wes Burns Midfielder
6.72
20
Kasey McAteer
Kasey McAteer
Midfielder63'
6.46
11
Jaden Philogene
Jaden Philogene Midfielder
7.03
47
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke
Attacker62'
6.99
14
Jack Taylor
Jack Taylor Midfielder
6.83
6
Dan Neil
Dan Neil
Midfielder86'
6.72
32
Marcelino Núñez
Marcelino Núñez Midfielder
6.9
33
Anis Mehmeti
Anis Mehmeti
Midfielder71'
7.13
9
George Hirst
George Hirst Attacker
6.74
31
Iván Azón
Iván Azón
Attacker70'
6.63
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI ▼

13
Joe Walsh
Joe Walsh Goalkeeper
6.69
6
Jake Clarke-Salter
Jake Clarke-Salter Defender
6.62
30
Tylon Smith
Tylon Smith
Defender46'
5.51
18
Rhys Norrington-Davies
Rhys Norrington-Davies Defender
5.21
27
Amadou Salif Mbengue
Amadou Salif Mbengue Defender
6.63
37
Ronnie Edwards
Ronnie Edwards Defender
6.6
10
Ilias Chair
Ilias Chair Midfielder
7.13
14
Koki Saito
Koki Saito
Attacker62'
6.6
20
Harvey Vale
Harvey Vale Midfielder
6.96
21
Kieran Morgan
Kieran Morgan Midfielder
6.56
48
Isak Alemayehu
Isak Alemayehu
Midfielder80'
6.38
40
Jonathan Varane
Jonathan Varane Midfielder
6.77
23
Daniel Bennie
Daniel Bennie Attacker
6.61
52
Leon Scarlett
Leon Scarlett
Attacker85'
6.49
24
Nicolas Madsen
Nicolas Madsen Attacker
7.11
11
Paul Patrick Smyth
Paul Patrick Smyth
Attacker46'
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dan Neil → Jack Taylor
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Kasey McAteer
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
85'
85'
Event
Leon Scarlett → Daniel Bennie
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Isak Alemayehu → Kieran Morgan
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Paul Patrick Smyth
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Leif Davis
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Anis Mehmeti → Marcelino Núñez
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Iván Azón → George Hirst
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Kasey McAteer → Wes Burns
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Jack Clarke → Jaden Philogene
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Koki Saito → Ilias Chair
4th Substitution
Event
Darnell Furlong
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
46'
Event
Tylon Smith → Jake Clarke-Salter
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Paul Patrick Smyth → Nicolas Madsen
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jaden Philogene
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
9'
Event
George Hirst
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Neill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Neill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Daniel Neill replaces Jack Taylor.
85
Update Update
Leon Scarlett replaces Daniel Bennie.
85
Attempt Attempt
Kasey McAteer scores with a left-footed shot.
85
Update Update
Goal! Kasey McAteer scores, making it 3-0.
83
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Bennie takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Paul Smyth takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Update Update
Isak Alemayehu Mulugeta comes on for Kieran Morgan.
77
Attempt Attempt
Dara O'Shea attempts a header but misses the shot.
75
Attempt Attempt
Koki Saito takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Anis Mehmeti's left-footed shot is blocked.
71
Update Update
Anis Mehmeti replaces Marcelino Nunez.
70
Update Update
Ivan Azon Monzon is on, and George Hirst is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jack Clarke takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Update Update
Koki Saito comes on for Ilias Chair.
62
Update Update
Kasey McAteer comes on for Wes Burns.
62
Update Update
Jack Clarke is on, and Jaden Philogene-Bidace is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Paul Smyth takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Jaden Philogene-Bidace takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Chair takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Substitution Substitution
Paul Smyth is substituted for Nicolas Madsen.
46
Update Update
Paul Smyth replaces Jake Clarke-Salter.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Darnell Furlong receives a yellow card.
46
Attempt Attempt
George Hirst takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Varane's left-footed shot is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Salif Mbengue takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Madsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Darnell Furlong takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Wes Burns takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Madsen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Jaden Philogene-Bidace takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
7
Attempt Attempt
Jaden Philogene-Bidace takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jaden Philogene-Bidace takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
George Hirst scores with a right-footed shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Leif Davis takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ipswich Town exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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