Ipswich Town vs Birmingham City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Portman Road Stadium Mon, 6 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Ipswich Town IPS
2 Winner 1
Birmingham City BRC
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 41 Regular Season
Kasey McAteer - 45'
Ben Johnson - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Carlos Vicente - 32'

CONTEXT

The match between Ipswich Town and Birmingham City has officially finished, ultimately resulting in a 0-0 draw at full-time. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, serving as a frustrating result for the heavily favored deviation team, Ipswich Town. Before kickoff, the market strongly backed the hosts with a 59.8% win probability, while a draw was rated at 24

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ipswich Town showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Herczeg

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Ricardo

4th Official

C. Gough

1st Assistant

L. Venamore

2nd Assistant

Ipswich Town K. McKenna
K. McKenna
VS
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
1.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 74 D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 D
Leicester City Rank: 67 D
Hull City Rank: 71 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 66 L
Derby County Rank: 69 L
Sheffield United Rank: 71 D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 73 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 10 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ipswich Town
59.83%
Draw
24.24%
Away Birmingham City
15.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.6
63.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ipswich Town
Birmingham City
Power Score
68.6
63.05
League Position
2
16
Global Rank
83
210

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ipswich Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ipswich Town Birmingham City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ipswich Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ipswich Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.24
24.78
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.78
23.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ipswich Town -0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Birmingham City +0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ipswich Town
Birmingham City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ipswich Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ipswich Town Birmingham City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ipswich Town Birmingham City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Ipswich Town
Birmingham City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ipswich Town
vs
Birmingham City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ipswich Town Birmingham City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ipswich Town 0.35
Birmingham City 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ipswich Town Birmingham City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ipswich Town 0.02
Birmingham City 0.06
Ipswich Town
Birmingham City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ipswich Town IPS Home
23 matches
Birmingham City BRC Away
Match Record
7
Wins
6
10
Draws
10
6
Losses
7
Goals
31
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
31
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Walton
England
28 C. Walton
D. Furlong
England
19 D. Furlong
D. O'Shea
Republic of Ireland
26 D. O'Shea
J. Greaves
England
24 J. Greaves
B. Johnson
England
18 B. Johnson
A. Matusiwa
Substitution
Netherlands
5 A. Matusiwa
D. Neil
England
6 D. Neil
K. McAteer
Substitution
England
20 K. McAteer
M. Nuñez
Substitution
Chile
32 M. Nuñez
J. Clarke
Substitution
England
47 J. Clarke
G. Hirst
Substitution
England
9 G. Hirst
Pitch
J. Beadle
England
25 J. Beadle
J. Panzo
Substitution
England
37 J. Panzo
C. Klarer
Austria
4 C. Klarer
P. Neumann
Germany
5 P. Neumann
B. Osayi-Samuel
Nigeria
26 B. Osayi-Samuel
S. Paik
Substitution
South Korea
8 S. Paik
J. Solis Romero
Colombia
14 J. Solis Romero
D. Gray
Substitution
Jamaica
10 D. Gray
J. Stansfield
Substitution
England
28 J. Stansfield
C. Vicente Robles
Substitution
Spain
23 C. Vicente Robles
A. Priske
Denmark
29 A. Priske

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 41 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Portman Road Stadium
Capacity :
29673
Attendance :
29381
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ruebyn Ricardo
Adam Herczeg
C. Gough
Lee Venamore

Statistics

Possession
IPS
53%
BRC
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 2
31 Dangerous attacks 48
54 Possession 46
6 Corners 4
19 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 4
10 Goal Kicks 5
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
19 Throwins 29
2 Assists 0
24 Successful Headers 17
14 Dribble Attempts 18
9 Goal Attempts 5
82 Ball Safe 82
2 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

84 Attacks 119
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

75 Long Passes 69
403 Passes 330
72 Successful Passes Percentage 66
8 Key Passes 6
292 Successful Passes 218
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
29 Successful Long Passes 17

Defensive

21 Tackles 18
8 Interceptions 11
3 Saves 3
69 Duels Won 49

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 22
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

11 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

28
Christian Walton
Christian Walton Goalkeeper
18
Ben Johnson
Ben Johnson Defender
19
Darnell Furlong
Darnell Furlong Defender
24
Jacob Greaves
Jacob Greaves Defender
26
Dara O'Shea
Dara O'Shea Defender
5
Azor Matusiwa
Azor Matusiwa Midfielder
33
Anis Mehmeti
Anis Mehmeti
Midfielder39'
6
Dan Neil
Dan Neil Midfielder
20
Kasey McAteer
Kasey McAteer Midfielder
4
Cédric Kipré
Cédric Kipré
Defender86'
32
Marcelino Núñez
Marcelino Núñez Midfielder
14
Jack Taylor
Jack Taylor
Midfielder75'
47
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke Midfielder
11
Jaden Philogene
Jaden Philogene
Attacker75'
9
George Hirst
George Hirst Attacker
29
Chuba Akpom
Chuba Akpom
Attacker75'
Referee : Adam Herczeg

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer Defender
5
Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann Defender
26
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Bright Osayi-Samuel Defender
37
Jonathan Panzo
Jonathan Panzo Defender
2
Ethan Laird
Ethan Laird
Defender56'
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik Midfielder
24
Tomoki Iwata
Tomoki Iwata
Midfielder46'
10
Demarai Gray
Demarai Gray Midfielder
17
Ibrahim Osman
Ibrahim Osman
Attacker56'
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís Midfielder
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente Midfielder
16
Patrick Roberts
Patrick Roberts
Midfielder81'
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Midfielder
33
Marvin Ducksch
Marvin Ducksch
Attacker81'
29
August Priske
August Priske Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Cédric Kipré → Kasey McAteer
10th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Patrick Roberts → Carlos Vicente
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Marvin Ducksch → Jay Stansfield
8th Substitution
Event
Jack Taylor
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Chuba Akpom → George Hirst
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Jaden Philogene → Jack Clarke
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Jack Taylor → Marcelino Núñez
7th Substitution
75'
56'
Event
Ibrahim Osman → Demarai Gray
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Ethan Laird → Jonathan Panzo
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Tomoki Iwata → Seung-ho Paik
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kasey McAteer
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
45'
Event
Ben Johnson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Anis Mehmeti → Azor Matusiwa
1st Substitution
39'
38'
Event
Demarai Gray
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
Carlos Vicente
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman of Birmingham City won a free kick in the attacking area.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Patrick Roberts of Birmingham City.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Johnson of Ipswich Town.
90
Update Update
Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Laird of Birmingham City had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the box, but it went high. The assist was from Patrick Roberts.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Ipswich Town defeating Birmingham City 2-1.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Jack Taylor of Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
89
Update Update
Fouled by Ben Johnson of Ipswich Town.
89
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City won a free kick in an attacking position.
86
Update Update
Ethan Laird of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by August Priske - Birmingham City.
85
Attempt Attempt
Ethan Laird's shot for Birmingham City from a difficult position on the left is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Ibrahim Osman of Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Cédric Kipré replaces Kasey McAteer.
84
Corner Corner
Dara O'Shea from Ipswich Town had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Jaden Philogene, who provided a cross after a corner.
83
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after Christoph Klarer concedes.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Patrick Roberts replaces Carlos Vicente.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Marvin Ducksch replaces Jay Stansfield.
78
Corner Corner
Birmingham City is awarded a corner after Darnell Furlong concedes.
78
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Christian Walton concedes.
77
Update Update
Jack Taylor from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomoki Iwata for Birmingham City.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jack Taylor from Ipswich Town receives a yellow card.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Chuba Akpom replaces George Hirst.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Jack Taylor replaces Marcelino Núñez.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Jaden Philogene replaces Jack Clarke.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jay Stansfield's shot for Birmingham City from the center of the box is blocked. Ethan Laird provided the assist.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jay Stansfield's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. August Priske provided the assist.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by August Priske for Birmingham City.
67
Update Update
Jacob Greaves from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Anis Mehmeti of Ipswich Town is flagged for offside.
64
Update Update
Fouled by Marcelino Núñez of Ipswich Town.
64
Update Update
Jay Stansfield of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
62
Attempt Attempt
George Hirst's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.
62
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town win a corner after Christoph Klarer concedes.
61
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Jhon Solís from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Christian Walton from Ipswich Town. The assist comes from Ethan Laird.
59
Update Update
Dara O'Shea from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Jay Stansfield for Birmingham City.
57
Update Update
Dara O'Shea of Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
57
Update Update
Fouled by Phil Neumann of Birmingham City.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Ethan Laird replaces Jonathan Panzo.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Ibrahim Osman replaces Demarai Gray.
55
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City won a free kick in the attacking area.
55
Update Update
Dan Neil from Ipswich Town committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Phil Neumann fouled a player from Birmingham City.
54
Update Update
Anis Mehmeti of Ipswich Town won a free kick on the left wing.
51
Update Update
Darnell Furlong of Ipswich Town commits a foul.
51
Update Update
August Priske of Birmingham City won a free kick on the left wing.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kasey McAteer from Ipswich Town had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went close and missed to the left. Marcelino Núñez provided the assist.
49
Attempt Attempt
Tomoki Iwata's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
49
Corner Corner
Birmingham City wins a corner after Darnell Furlong concedes.
48
Update Update
Fouled by Carlos Vicente of Birmingham City.
48
Update Update
Jacob Greaves of Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Phil Neumann of Birmingham City.
47
Update Update
Anis Mehmeti of Ipswich Town won a free kick in an attacking position.
46
Update Update
Foul by August Priske for Birmingham City.
46
Update Update
Jacob Greaves of Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
45
Attempt Attempt
Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from a difficult position on the right. The shot is saved by Birmingham City's goalkeeper James Beadle, with an assist from Kasey McAteer.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by George Hirst of Ipswich Town.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Ipswich Town leading Birmingham City 2-1.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Jhon Solís of Birmingham City.
45
Update Update
James Beadle from Birmingham City was awarded a free kick in defense.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after a concession by Paik Seung-Ho.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ipswich Town leads 2-1 against Birmingham City. Kasey McAteer scores for Ipswich Town with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by George Hirst's through ball.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Tomoki Iwata replaces Paik Seung-Ho.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with Ipswich Town leading Birmingham City 2-1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ipswich Town's George Hirst attempts an attack, heading the ball from the center of the box, but his shot is saved in the top center of the goal by Birmingham City's James Beadle. The assist came from Marcelino Núñez, who delivered the cross.
43
Update Update
Offside called against Birmingham City. Jay Stansfield is offside.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ipswich Town equalizes to 1-1 against Birmingham City. Ben Johnson scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Darnell Furlong's cross.
39
Attempt Attempt
Marcelino Núñez of Ipswich Town has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
39
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Anis Mehmeti replaces Azor Matusiwa due to injury.
38
Update Update
Dan Neil from Ipswich Town won a free kick in an attacking position.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Demarai Gray of Birmingham City receives a yellow card.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Paik Seung-Ho against Birmingham City.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Jay Stansfield for Birmingham City.
37
Update Update
Azor Matusiwa from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Paik Seung-Ho against Birmingham City.
35
Update Update
Handball by Jay Stansfield of Birmingham City.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Demarai Gray for Birmingham City.
33
Update Update
Marcelino Núñez from Ipswich Town won a free kick in an attacking position.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Birmingham City takes the lead 1-0 with Carlos Vicente scoring from the center of the box with a left-footed shot into the left corner.
32
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Kasey McAteer of Ipswich Town has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Birmingham City goalkeeper James Beadle. The assist came from George Hirst.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Clarke of Ipswich Town.
30
Update Update
Jhon Solís of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
30
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after James Beadle concedes.
29
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town wins a corner after Bright Osayi-Samuel concedes.
26
Corner Corner
Birmingham City win a corner after Ben Johnson concedes.
23
Corner Corner
Marcelino Núñez from Ipswich Town missed a chance with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the left after a corner.
23
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Demarai Gray from Birmingham City.
23
Update Update
Darnell Furlong of Ipswich Town commits a foul.
23
Update Update
Demarai Gray of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
22
Corner Corner
Ipswich Town win a corner after Phil Neumann concedes.
21
Update Update
Offside called against Ipswich Town. George Hirst is offside.
19
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Azor Matusiwa from Ipswich Town.
18
Update Update
George Hirst from Ipswich Town won a free kick in an attacking position.
18
Update Update
Foul by Phil Neumann of Birmingham City.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Johnson of Ipswich Town.
15
Update Update
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City won a free kick in an attacking position.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Clarke of Ipswich Town.
14
Update Update
Bright Osayi-Samuel of Birmingham City won a free kick in defense.
8
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jacob Greaves from Ipswich Town.
7
Update Update
Kasey McAteer from Ipswich Town won a free kick on the right wing.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Panzo for Birmingham City.
5
Update Update
Darnell Furlong fouled a player from Ipswich Town.
5
Corner Corner
Birmingham City win a corner after Ben Johnson concedes.
5
Update Update
Demarai Gray from Birmingham City won a free kick on the left wing.
2
Update Update
Azor Matusiwa of Ipswich Town won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Foul by Paik Seung-Ho against Birmingham City.
1
Update Update
Kasey McAteer from Ipswich Town misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing the goal. The assist came from Marcelino Núñez.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ipswich Town exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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