Inter vs Roma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 5 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Inter INT
5 Winner 2
Roma ROM
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Nicolò Barella - 63'
Marcus Thuram - 55'
Lautaro Martínez - 52', 1'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu - 45+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Lorenzo Pellegrini - 70'
Gianluca Mancini - 40'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Inter securing a dominant 5-2 victory over Roma. Inter took a narrow lead into the break, leading 2-1 at half-time, before ultimately pulling away in a high-scoring second half. Pre-match expectations heavily favored the hosts. Inter entered the contest with a 60.4% market probability of winning, compared to Roma's 16% chance and a 23.7% likelihood of a draw. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these pre-match market predictions. However, the decisive margin of victory resulted in a significant deviation level of 39.6% favoring Inter, showcasing a performance that exceeded baseline expectations. Inter controlled the overall tempo with 56% possession against Roma's 44%. While expected goals (xG) data is currently unavailable to assess chance creation quality, the attacking efficiency shift for the match remained in line with regular models. Furthermore, the game was completed cleanly without any red cards being issued, ensuring both sides played the full ninety minutes without any numerical disadvantages impacting the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Inter showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Sozza

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Peretti

1st Assistant

A. Constanzo

2nd Assistant

A. Colombo

4th Official

Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
VS
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
2.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.68
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 76 D
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
AC Milan Rank: 87 L
Genoa Rank: 74 W
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Juventus Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Como Rank: 83 L
Genoa Rank: 74 L
Juventus Rank: 84 D
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Napoli Rank: 86 D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 16 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Inter
60.35%
Draw
23.69%
Away Roma
15.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.58
83.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Inter
Roma
Power Score
90.58
83.66
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
11
40

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Inter Roma

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Roma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Roma
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.91
25.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.34
34.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Inter +1.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Roma -1.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Roma
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Roma
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Inter Roma
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Inter Roma
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Roma
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Inter
vs
Roma
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Inter Roma
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Inter 0.33
Roma 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Inter Roma
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Inter 0.05
Roma 0.10
Inter
Roma
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 53 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Inter INT Home
53 matches
Roma ROM Away
Match Record
21
Wins
16
16
Draws
16
16
Losses
21
Goals
83
Goals Scored
75
75
Goals Conceded
83
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:06:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Y. Sommer
Switzerland
1 Y. Sommer
M. Akanji
Switzerland
25 M. Akanji
F. Acerbi
Italy
15 F. Acerbi
A. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
95 A. Bastoni
D. Dumfries
Netherlands
2 D. Dumfries
N. Barella
Italy
23 N. Barella
H. Çalhanoğlu
Substitution
Turkey
20 H. Çalhanoğlu
P. Zieliński
Substitution
Poland
7 P. Zieliński
F. Dimarco
Italy
32 F. Dimarco
M. Thuram
Substitution
France
9 M. Thuram
L. Martínez
Substitution
Argentina
10 L. Martínez
Pitch
M. Svilar
Serbia
99 M. Svilar
M. Hermoso Canseco
Substitution
Spain
22 M. Hermoso Canseco
O. N'Dicka
France
5 O. N'Dicka
G. Mancini
Substitution
Italy
23 G. Mancini
D. Rensch
Substitution
Netherlands
2 D. Rensch
N. Pisilli
Italy
61 N. Pisilli
B. Cristante
Italy
4 B. Cristante
M. Çelik
Turkey
19 M. Çelik
L. Pellegrini
Italy
7 L. Pellegrini
M. Malvano
Substitution
Italy
18 M. Malvano
D. Malen
Netherlands
14 D. Malen

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Attendance :
75267
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simone Sozza
Giorgio Peretti
Alessandro Constanzo
Andrea Colombo

Statistics

Possession
INT
54%
ROM
46%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
14 Shots 6
51 Dangerous attacks 43
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
63 Ball Safe 58
13 Goal Attempts 7
4 Assists 1
6 Successful Dribbles 7
13 Successful Headers 12
17 Throwins 16
12 Dribble Attempts 16
8 Goal Kicks 8
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

69 Attacks 107
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

435 Successful Passes 341
86 Successful Passes Percentage 85
14 Key Passes 6
50 Long Passes 43
506 Passes 403
21 Successful Long Passes 20
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

51 Duels Won 43
22 Tackles 13
11 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 4

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 17
5 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

11 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

1
Yann Sommer
Yann Sommer Goalkeeper
15
Francesco Acerbi
Francesco Acerbi Defender
25
Manuel Akanji
Manuel Akanji Defender
95
Alessandro Bastoni
Alessandro Bastoni Defender
36
Matteo Darmian
Matteo Darmian
Defender58'
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries Midfielder
7
Piotr Zieliński
Piotr Zieliński Midfielder
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Midfielder76'
20
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Hakan Çalhanoğlu Midfielder
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić
Midfielder67'
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella Midfielder
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco Midfielder
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
94
Pio Esposito
Pio Esposito
Attacker66'
10
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez Attacker
2
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Attacker58'
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

99
Mile Svilar
Mile Svilar Goalkeeper
5
Evan Ndicka
Evan Ndicka Defender
22
Mario Hermoso
Mario Hermoso Defender
24
Jan Ziolkowski
Jan Ziolkowski
Defender81'
23
Gianluca Mancini
Gianluca Mancini Defender
87
Daniele Ghilardi
Daniele Ghilardi
Defender46'
2
Devyne Rensch
Devyne Rensch Midfielder
12
Konstantinos Tsimikas
Konstantinos Tsimikas
Defender58'
4
Bryan Cristante
Bryan Cristante Midfielder
19
Zeki Çelik
Zeki Çelik Midfielder
61
Niccolò Pisilli
Niccolò Pisilli Midfielder
7
Lorenzo Pellegrini
Lorenzo Pellegrini Attacker
14
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Attacker
18
Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé Attacker
92
Stephan El Shaarawy
Stephan El Shaarawy
Attacker64'

Events

2ND-HALF
81'
Event
Jan Ziolkowski → Mario Hermoso
9th Substitution
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan → Piotr Zieliński
8th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Lorenzo Pellegrini
Left foot shot / 7th Goal
Event
Petar Sučić → Hakan Çalhanoğlu
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Pio Esposito → Marcus Thuram
6th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Stephan El Shaarawy → Matías Soulé
5th Substitution
Event
Nicolò Barella
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
63'
60'
Event
Niccolò Pisilli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ange-Yoan Bonny → Lautaro Martínez
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Matteo Darmian → Alessandro Bastoni
3rd Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Konstantinos Tsimikas → Devyne Rensch
4th Substitution
Event
Marcus Thuram
Header / 5th Goal
55'
Event
Lautaro Martínez
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
52'
46'
Event
Daniele Ghilardi → Gianluca Mancini
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
45+2'
40'
Event
Gianluca Mancini
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Lautaro Martínez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul by Jan Ziólkowski of Roma.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Inter Milan.
90
Corner Corner
Lorenzo Pellegrini from Roma had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box. His attempt was close but missed the top right corner from a free kick.
90
Update Update
Donyell Malen of Roma won a free kick in the attacking area.
87
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma won a free kick in the attacking area.
86
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma won a free kick in the attacking area.
86
Update Update
Fouled by Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after Federico Dimarco concedes.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Jan Ziólkowski replaces Mario Hermoso.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Mile Svilar concedes.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after a concession by Mile Svilar.
80
Corner Corner
Denzel Dumfries of Inter Milan had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just left of the target. The assist came from Federico Dimarco, who delivered a cross following a corner.
79
Update Update
Daniele Ghilardi of Roma won a free kick in defense.
79
Update Update
Fouled by Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan.
77
Attempt Attempt
Denzel Dumfries from Inter Milan misses a chance with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Henrikh Mkhitaryan replaces Piotr Zielinski.
75
Update Update
Offside called against Roma. Niccolò Pisilli is offside.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after a concession by Stephan El Shaarawy.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lorenzo Pellegrini scores for Roma with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner. The match score is now Inter Milan 5, Roma 2.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Petar Sucic replaces Hakan Çalhanoglu.
67
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Kostas Tsimikas from Roma shot with his left foot from the center of the box.
67
Update Update
Donyell Malen from Roma misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but sending it high. Bryan Cristante provided the assist.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Francesco Pio Esposito replaces Marcus Thuram.
65
Update Update
Manuel Akanji of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Stephan El Shaarawy of Roma.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Stephan El Shaarawy replaces Matías Soulé.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nicolò Barella scores for Inter Milan with a left-footed shot from the center of the box. The score is now Inter Milan 5, Roma 1.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niccolò Pisilli of Roma receives a yellow card for a foul.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan headed the ball from the right side of the six-yard box.
59
Attempt Attempt
Matías Soulé's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Zeki Çelik provided the assist.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Niccolò Pisilli of Roma.
59
Update Update
Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan won a free kick on the right wing.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Kostas Tsimikas replaces Devyne Rensch.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Matteo Darmian replaces Alessandro Bastoni.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Ange-Yoan Bonny replaces Lautaro Martínez.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inter Milan 4, Roma 1. Marcus Thuram scores for Inter Milan with a header from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Hakan Çalhanoglu's cross after a corner.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after Daniele Ghilardi concedes.
53
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez from Inter Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Bryan Cristante of Roma.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lautaro Martínez scores for Inter Milan with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Marcus Thuram. The score is now Inter Milan 3, Roma 1.
50
Update Update
Lorenzo Pellegrini of Roma won a free kick in an attacking position.
50
Update Update
Lorenzo Pellegrini of Roma won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Bastoni of Inter Milan.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Marcus Thuram for Inter Milan.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Bryan Cristante of Roma.
47
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez of Inter Milan won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hakan Çalhanoglu scores for Inter Milan with a right-footed shot from outside the box. The score is now Inter Milan 2, Roma 1.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Inter Milan leading Roma 2-1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Inter Milan 2, Roma 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Roma: Daniele Ghilardi replaces Gianluca Mancini due to injury.
44
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gianluca Mancini from Roma.
43
Update Update
Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Gianluca Mancini of Roma.
42
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez is called offside for Inter Milan.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Gianluca Mancini scores for Roma with a header from close range into the top left corner, assisted by Devyne Rensch's cross following a corner.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after Federico Dimarco concedes.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after a concession by Manuel Akanji.
37
Attempt Attempt
Nicolò Barella's shot for Inter Milan from the right side of the box is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Piotr Zielinski's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan has his left-footed shot from the center of the box blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Piotr Zielinski of Inter Milan took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it went close and missed. Federico Dimarco provided the assist.
32
Update Update
Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Gianluca Mancini of Roma committed a foul.
30
Attempt Attempt
Matías Soulé from Roma missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from over 40 yards on the right wing after a fast break.
29
Update Update
Zeki Çelik from Roma won a free kick on the right wing.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Federico Dimarco of Inter Milan.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after a concession by Niccolò Pisilli.
26
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Devyne Rensch concedes.
25
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen from Roma had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. The assist came from Bryan Cristante.
24
Corner Corner
Donyell Malen of Roma makes an attacking attempt from a few meters, but Yann Sommer of Inter Milan saves it in the top right corner. The assist comes from Matías Soulé with a cross.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Roma after Lautaro Martínez concedes.
23
Update Update
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan commits a foul.
23
Update Update
Donyell Malen of Roma won a free kick on the right wing.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Manuel Akanji - Inter Milan.
20
Update Update
Lorenzo Pellegrini from Roma won a free kick in the attacking area.
18
Update Update
Matías Soulé from Roma won a free kick on the right wing.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Bastoni of Inter Milan.
13
Corner Corner
Lautaro Martínez of Inter Milan makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Mile Svilar of Roma saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Federico Dimarco.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after a concession by Mile Svilar.
10
Update Update
Foul by Marcus Thuram - Inter Milan.
10
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma won a free kick in the attacking area.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Mario Hermoso - Roma.
9
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
6
Corner Corner
Alessandro Bastoni from Inter Milan attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, but Mile Svilar from Roma saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Federico Dimarco.
6
Attempt Attempt
Federico Dimarco's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Inter Milan after a concession by Mile Svilar.
5
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Hakan Çalhanoglu of Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved in the top center of the goal by Mile Svilar of Roma. The assist comes from Federico Dimarco.
4
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Gianluca Mancini of Roma.
3
Update Update
Niccolò Pisilli from Roma won a free kick in an attacking position.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Hakan Çalhanoglu of Inter Milan.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Bryan Cristante of Roma.
1
Update Update
Piotr Zielinski of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inter Milan leads 1-0 against Roma. Lautaro Martínez scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the high center of the goal, assisted by Marcus Thuram.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Inter exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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