Inter vs Parma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 3 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Inter INT
2 Winner 0
Parma PRM
Full Time Sun, 3 May 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Henrikh Mkhitaryan - 80'
Marcus Thuram - 45+1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Inter claimed a solid 2-0 home win against Parma, extending their dominance in the fixture. The hosts struck first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime, then added a second goal after the break to seal the points. Inter held 59% possession, dictating the tempo and limiting Parma's threats effectively. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a straightforward contest. As the stronger side, Inter's performance aligned with expectations, showing control throughout. The result featured minimal structural deviation of 2.1%, reflecting a predictable outcome. Parma, with 41% possession, couldn't mount a serious challenge, underscoring Inter's superiority. This victory reinforces Inter's title credentials in the league.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Inter's 2-0 win showed minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations not assessable without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red card distortion occurred with zero dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Bonacina

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Preti

1st Assistant

D. Palermo

2nd Assistant

L. Massimi

4th Official

Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
VS
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
2.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 W
Como Rank: 84 W
Roma Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 78 D
Atalanta Rank: 84 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Udinese Rank: 75 W
Napoli Rank: 86 D
Lazio Rank: 81 D
Cremonese Rank: 67 L
Torino Rank: 74 L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Inter
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Parma
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91.22
72.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Inter
Parma
Power Score
91.22
72.46
League Position
1
12
Global Rank
9
150

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Inter Parma

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.76
12.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.44
25.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Inter +1.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Parma -1.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Parma
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Inter Parma
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Inter Parma
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Parma
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Inter
vs
Parma
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Inter Parma
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Inter 0.19
Parma 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Inter Parma
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Inter 0.00
Parma 0.03
Inter
Parma
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • INT had peak pressure around 83'.
  • INT started the game with stronger pressure.
INT Pressure PRM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: INT reached the top pressure at 83' (87.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Inter INT Home
30 matches
Parma PRM Away
Match Record
17
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
17
Goals
51
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
51
+21
Goal Difference
-21

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
Y. Sommer
Switzerland
1 Y. Sommer
Y. Bisseck
Germany
31 Y. Bisseck
M. Akanji
Switzerland
25 M. Akanji
A. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
95 A. Bastoni
D. Dumfries
Netherlands
2 D. Dumfries
N. Barella
Substitution
Italy
23 N. Barella
P. Zieliński
Substitution
Poland
7 P. Zieliński
P. Sučić
Croatia
8 P. Sučić
F. Dimarco
Italy
32 F. Dimarco
M. Thuram
Substitution
France
9 M. Thuram
F. Esposito
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Esposito
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
31 Z. Suzuki
N. Ndiaye
Senegal
3 N. Ndiaye
M. Troilo
Argentina
37 M. Troilo
A. Circati
Australia
39 A. Circati
E. Valeri
Substitution
Italy
14 E. Valeri
M. Keita
Substitution
Belgium
16 M. Keita
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Italy
41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
A. Bernabe Garcia
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Bernabe Garcia
E. Del Prato
Italy
15 E. Del Prato
M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Substitution
Argentina
9 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
G. Strefezza Rebelato
Substitution
Brazil
7 G. Strefezza Rebelato

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kevin Bonacina
Fabiano Preti
Domenico Palermo
Luca Massimi

Statistics

Possession
INT
57%
PRM
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
11 Shots 3
64 Dangerous attacks 22
59 Possession 41
8 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 70
10 Goal Attempts 2
23 Throwins 10
11 Dribble Attempts 8
4 Successful Dribbles 6
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
4 Goal Kicks 10
8 Successful Headers 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

111 Attacks 70
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

33 Long Passes 44
534 Successful Passes 372
12 Key Passes 3
92 Successful Passes Percentage 89
581 Passes 420
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
20 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

28 Duels Won 30
0 Saves 3
1 Interceptions 3
9 Tackles 13

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 11
8 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
9 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Kevin Bonacina

Starting XI ▼

1
Yann Sommer
Yann Sommer Goalkeeper
6.77
25
Manuel Akanji
Manuel Akanji Defender
7.04
31
Yann Bisseck
Yann Bisseck Defender
7.1
95
Alessandro Bastoni
Alessandro Bastoni Defender
7.23
30
Carlos Augusto
Carlos Augusto
Defender67'
6.8
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries Midfielder
6.7
7
Piotr Zieliński
Piotr Zieliński Midfielder
7.03
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Midfielder67'
6.92
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
6.74
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella Midfielder
7.2
16
Davide Frattesi
Davide Frattesi
Midfielder89'
6.57
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco Midfielder
7.59
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
7.21
10
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez
Attacker67'
7.34
94
Pio Esposito
Pio Esposito Attacker
6.79
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Attacker46'
6.76
Referee : Kevin Bonacina

Starting XI ▼

31
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
6.95
3
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Abdoulaye Ndiaye Defender
6.59
37
Mariano Troilo
Mariano Troilo Defender
6.82
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati Defender
6.9
10
Adrián Bernabé
Adrián Bernabé Midfielder
7.08
22
Oliver Sørensen
Oliver Sørensen
Midfielder75'
6.55
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri Midfielder
6.83
29
Franco Carboni
Franco Carboni
Defender85'
6.29
15
Enrico Delprato
Enrico Delprato Midfielder
6.7
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
6.83
24
Christian Ordóñez
Christian Ordóñez
Midfielder67'
6.47
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielder
6.65
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza Attacker
7.07
11
Pontus Almqvist
Pontus Almqvist
Attacker75'
6.64
9
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo Pellegrino Attacker
6.85
23
Nesta Elphege
Nesta Elphege
Attacker67'
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Davide Frattesi → Nicolò Barella
10th Substitution
89'
87'
Event
Var
85'
Event
Franco Carboni → Emanuele Valeri
9th Substitution
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
75'
Event
Oliver Sørensen → Adrián Bernabé
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Pontus Almqvist → Gabriel Strefezza
7th Substitution
Event
Lautaro Martínez → Marcus Thuram
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan → Piotr Zieliński
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Carlos Augusto → Alessandro Bastoni
2nd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Christian Ordóñez → Mandela Keita
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Nesta Elphege → Mateo Pellegrino
3rd Substitution
Event
Piotr Zieliński
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
64'
Event
Ange-Yoan Bonny → Pio Esposito
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Marcus Thuram
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+1'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Davide Frattesi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
Davide Frattesi comes on for Nicolo Barella.
89
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulaye Ndiaye attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
Franco Carboni comes on for Emanuele Valeri.
80
Update Update
Goal! Henrik Mkhitaryan scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Lautaro Javier Martinez.
80
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Mkhitaryan scores with a left-footed shot.
77
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Javier Martinez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
Oliver Sorensen is on, and Adrian Bernabe Garcia is off.
75
Update Update
Pontus Almqvist replaces Gabriel Strefezza.
72
Attempt Attempt
Denzel Dumfries takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Nesta Elphege takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Nesta Elphege replaces Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila.
67
Update Update
Lautaro Javier Martinez comes on for Marcus Thuram.
67
Update Update
Henrik Mkhitaryan comes on for Piotr Zielinski.
67
Update Update
Christian Ordonez is on, and Mandela Keita is off.
67
Update Update
Carlos Augusto replaces Alessandro Bastoni.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Piotr Zielinski receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic's left-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny comes on for Francesco Pio Esposito.
45
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
Update Update
Denzel Dumfries attempts a header but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram attempts a header but misses the shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Denzel Dumfries takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Barella takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
20
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Denzel Dumfries attempted a header but missed the shot.
7
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

Inter's 2-0 triumph over Parma was a textbook display of superiority, with the first-half goal setting the tone and the second ensuring calm progression. Dominating possession at 59%, they neutralized Parma's efforts seamlessly. The absence of red cards kept the game clean, and minimal deviation highlighted the expected nature of the result. This performance solidifies Inter's standing, providing momentum for upcoming challenges. Parma's inability to respond leaves them reflecting on another tough outing against top opposition.

Inter vs Parma preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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