Inter vs Hellas Verona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Inter INT
1 – 1
Hellas Verona VER
Full Time Sun, 17 May 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
Andrias Edmundsson - 47' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Kieron Bowie - 90+1'

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested Serie A fixture Inter and Hellas Verona played out a 1-1 draw at the San Siro. Inter dominated proceedings throughout with an impressive 74 percent share of the ball and generated a substantial 2.31 in expected goals compared to Verona's modest 0.91. The first half ended goalless with both teams unable to break the deadlock before the interval. After the restart the hosts pushed forward relentlessly but Verona stood firm and managed to equalize after Inter had taken the lead. The final scoreline of 1-1 represented a significant deviation from what the underlying numbers might have predicted for the stronger side. This result underscores the fine margins in football where statistical superiority does not guarantee the desired outcome every time.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Inter recorded a significant structural deviation of 81.5 percent from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with xG expectations despite Inter's clear dominance.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with market expectations given the pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Inter generated 2.31 xG while Hellas Verona managed only 0.91 in the encounter.
  • Event impact: The even score at halftime set the stage for a tense second half that produced the final 1-1 draw.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards issued to either side the match proceeded without any red card distortion affecting the flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Calzavara

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Costanzo

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Passeri

2nd Assistant

Italy

G. Collu

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
VS
Hellas Verona P. Sammarco
P. Sammarco
2.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.56
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lazio Rank: 81 W
Parma Rank: 73 W
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Como Rank: 84 W
Roma Rank: 86 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: 84 L
Juventus Rank: 86 D
Lecce Rank: 68 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 L
Torino Rank: 74 L
Fiorentina Rank: 78 L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 4 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Inter
68.79%
Draw
18.52%
Away Hellas Verona
12.69%

Movement

Changes since opening
Inter
+62.57%
Draw
-71.2%
Hellas Verona
+8.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91.52
64.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Inter
Hellas Verona
Power Score
91.52
64.53
League Position
1
19
Global Rank
8
336

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Hellas Verona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Inter Hellas Verona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hellas Verona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hellas Verona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.04
60.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
60.19
28.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Inter -3.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Hellas Verona +3.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Hellas Verona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Inter
vs
Hellas Verona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Inter Hellas Verona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Inter Hellas Verona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Inter
Hellas Verona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Inter
vs
Hellas Verona
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Inter Hellas Verona
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Inter 0.23
Hellas Verona 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Inter Hellas Verona
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Inter 0.03
Hellas Verona 0.01
Inter
Hellas Verona
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • INT had peak pressure around 50'.
  • VER started the game with stronger pressure.
INT Pressure VER Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: INT reached the top pressure at 50' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Inter INT Home
22 matches
Hellas Verona VER Away
Match Record
18
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
18
Goals
53
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
53
+36
Goal Difference
-36

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:02:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
Y. Sommer
Substitution
Switzerland
1 Y. Sommer
M. Darmian
Substitution
Italy
36 M. Darmian
S. de Vrij
Netherlands
6 S. de Vrij
F. Acerbi
Italy
15 F. Acerbi
L. Tomaz de Lima
Brazil
11 L. Tomaz de Lima
A. Diouf
Substitution
France
17 A. Diouf
P. Sučić
Croatia
8 P. Sučić
H. Mkhitaryan
Armenia
22 H. Mkhitaryan
C. Zopalato Neves
Brazil
30 C. Zopalato Neves
A. Bonny
Substitution
France
14 A. Bonny
L. Martínez
Substitution
Argentina
10 (C) L. Martínez
Pitch
L. Montipò
Italy
1 (C) L. Montipò
M. Frese
Substitution
Denmark
3 M. Frese
N. Valentini
Argentina
6 N. Valentini
A. Edmundsson
Faroe Islands
5 A. Edmundsson
V. Nelsson
Denmark
15 V. Nelsson
R. Belghali
Substitution
Algeria
7 R. Belghali
A. Bernede
Substitution
France
24 A. Bernede
R. Gagliardini
Italy
63 R. Gagliardini
S. Lovric
Substitution
Slovenia
4 S. Lovric
K. Bowie
Scotland
18 K. Bowie
T. Suslov
Substitution
Slovakia
10 T. Suslov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Attendance :
75228
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Calzavara
Alessandro Costanzo
Matteo Passeri
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
INT
67%
VER
33%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
75 Dangerous attacks 33
74 Possession 26
10 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
25 Dribble Attempts 9
10 Goal Attempts 10
14 Throwins 19
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
8 Successful Headers 15
6 Goal Kicks 8
130 Ball Safe 91
9 Successful Dribbles 3

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 2
137 Attacks 61

Possession

661 Passes 228
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
590 Successful Passes 176
89 Successful Passes Percentage 77
9 Key Passes 12
38 Long Passes 37
22 Successful Long Passes 17

Defensive

4 Saves 5
18 Tackles 26
4 Interceptions 7
47 Duels Won 51

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 16
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Starting XI ▼

1
Yann Sommer
Yann Sommer Goalkeeper
7.49
12
Raffaele Di Gennaro
Raffaele Di Gennaro
Goalkeeper81'
6.21
6
Stefan de Vrij
Stefan de Vrij Defender
7.1
15
Francesco Acerbi
Francesco Acerbi Defender
7.18
36
Matteo Darmian
Matteo Darmian Defender
6.59
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco
Defender64'
6.34
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
8.11
11
Luis Henrique
Luis Henrique Midfielder
6.81
17
Andy Diouf
Andy Diouf Midfielder
7.03
7
Piotr Zieliński
Piotr Zieliński
Midfielder63'
6.46
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan Midfielder
7.2
30
Carlos Augusto
Carlos Augusto Midfielder
7.01
10
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez (C) Attacker
6.69
48
Mattia Mosconi
Mattia Mosconi
Attacker75'
6.34
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny Attacker
6.25
94
Pio Esposito
Pio Esposito
Attacker64'
6.64
Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Starting XI ▼

1
Lorenzo Montipò
Lorenzo Montipò (C) Goalkeeper
7.69
3
Martin Frese
Martin Frese Defender
6.48
12
Domagoj Bradarić
Domagoj Bradarić
Defender84'
6.7
5
Andrias Edmundsson
Andrias Edmundsson Defender
8.15
6
Nicolás Valentini
Nicolás Valentini Defender
7.38
7
Rafik Belghali
Rafik Belghali Defender
6.18
11
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Midfielder61'
6.52
15
Victor Nelsson
Victor Nelsson Defender
7.23
4
Sandi Lovrić
Sandi Lovrić Midfielder
7
90
Ioan Vermeșan
Ioan Vermeșan
Attacker84'
6.42
24
Antoine Bernede
Antoine Bernede Midfielder
6.55
21
Abdou Harroui
Abdou Harroui
Midfielder46'
6.94
63
Roberto Gagliardini
Roberto Gagliardini Midfielder
6.44
10
Tomas Suslov
Tomas Suslov Attacker
6.27
9
Amin Sarr
Amin Sarr
Attacker61'
6.89
18
Kieron Bowie
Kieron Bowie Attacker
7.56

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Kieron Bowie
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
89'
Event
Roberto Gagliardini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Ioan Vermeșan → Sandi Lovrić
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Domagoj Bradarić → Martin Frese
9th Substitution
Event
Raffaele Di Gennaro → Yann Sommer
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mattia Mosconi → Lautaro Martínez
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Pio Esposito → Ange-Yoan Bonny
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Federico Dimarco → Matteo Darmian
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Piotr Zieliński → Andy Diouf
4th Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro → Rafik Belghali
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Amin Sarr → Tomas Suslov
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Nicolás Valentini
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Andrias Edmundsson
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
47'
46'
Event
Abdou Harroui → Antoine Bernede
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Kieron Bowie scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Update Update
Ioan Vermesan takes a header, but it misses the target.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roberto Gagliardini receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Bradaric takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Kieron Bowie takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Victor Nelsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Mkhitaryan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Ioan Vermesan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Substitution Substitution
Ioan Vermesan is substituted for Sandi Lovric.
84
Update Update
Ioan Vermesan replaces Sandi Lovric.
83
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Mosconi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Raffaele Di Gennaro replaces Yann Sommer.
80
Attempt Attempt
Amin Sarr's right-footed shot is saved.
75
Update Update
Mattia Mosconi comes on for Lautaro Javier Martinez.
69
Attempt Attempt
Abdou Harroui's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Update Update
Piotr Zielinski comes on for Andy Diouf.
64
Update Update
Francesco Pio Esposito comes on for Ange-Yoan Bonny.
63
Update Update
Federico Dimarco replaces Matteo Darmian.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolas Valentini receives a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Amin Sarr replaces Tomas Suslov.
61
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro comes on for Rafik Belghali.
60
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Valentini attempts a header but misses the shot.
57
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Mkhitaryan takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Javier Martinez takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
54
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Augusto attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ange-Yoan Bonny scores to make it 1-0.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal makes it 1-0.
46
Update Update
Abdou Harroui comes on for Antoine Bernede.
46
Attempt Attempt
Ange-Yoan Bonny attempts a header but misses the shot.
42
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Mkhitaryan takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Javier Martinez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Martin Frese takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Valentini's header is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Javier Martinez takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Mkhitaryan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kieron Bowie attempted a header but missed the shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Sandi Lovric's header is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Henrik Mkhitaryan takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Augusto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Andy Diouf's left-footed shot is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Valentini takes a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona. Structural assessment: Inter exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Inter vs Hellas Verona preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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