Inter vs Como Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza Tue, 21 Apr - 7:00 PM
Coppa Italia
Inter INT
3 Winner 2
Como COM
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 2
Hakan Çalhanoğlu - 86', 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Lucas Da Cunha  - 48'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Inter 3–2 Como. The result saw Inter take the points. Inter showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 63%–37%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Inter's 3-2 win showed a significant 51.7% deviation from pre-market probabilities.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies were in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: No xG data provided to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Sozza

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
VS
Como F. Fàbregas i Soler
F. Fàbregas i Soler
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: D
Torino Rank: W
Venezia Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Inter Rank: D
Napoli Rank: D
Fiorentina Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Inter
48.28%
Draw
27.28%
Away Como
24.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Inter
-46.44%
Draw
+22.19%
Como
+24.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.82
28.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Inter
Como
Power Score
33.82
28.42
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Como — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Inter Como

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Como

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.83
47.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.30
41.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Inter -0.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Como +0.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Como
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Inter ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Como
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Inter Como
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Inter Como
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Inter
Como
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Inter
vs
Como
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Inter Como
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Inter 0.25
Como 0.53
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Inter Como
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Inter 0.07
Como 0.03
Inter
Como
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • INT had peak pressure around 79'.
  • COM started the game with stronger pressure.
INT Pressure COM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: INT reached the top pressure at 79' (80.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Inter INT Home
5 matches
Como COM Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
4
Goals
12
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
12
+9
Goal Difference
-9

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:04:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Martínez Riera
Spain
13 J. Martínez Riera
M. Akanji
Switzerland
25 M. Akanji
F. Acerbi
Substitution
Italy
15 F. Acerbi
C. Zopalato Neves
Brazil
30 C. Zopalato Neves
L. Tomaz de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
11 L. Tomaz de Lima
N. Barella
Italy
23 N. Barella
H. Çalhanoğlu
Türkiye
20 H. Çalhanoğlu
P. Zieliński
Substitution
Poland
7 P. Zieliński
F. Dimarco
Substitution
Italy
32 F. Dimarco
M. Thuram
France
9 M. Thuram
A. Bonny
Substitution
France
14 A. Bonny
Pitch
J. Butez
France
1 J. Butez
M. Kempf
Germany
2 M. Kempf
D. Santos Silva
Substitution
Brazil
34 D. Santos Silva
J. Naveros
Spain
14 J. Naveros
?. Valle Gómez
Spain
3 ?. Valle Gómez
M. Perrone
Argentina
23 M. Perrone
L. Da Cunha
Substitution
France
33 L. Da Cunha
I. Brempt
Substitution
Belgium
77 I. Brempt
M. Baturina
Substitution
Croatia
20 M. Baturina
N. Paz Martínez
Argentina
10 N. Paz Martínez
A. Douvikas
Substitution
Greece
11 A. Douvikas

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 2
Stadium :
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Capacity :
75817
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simone Sozza

Statistics

Possession
INT
59%
COM
41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 7
8 Shots 7
87 Dangerous attacks 30
63 Possession 37
9 Corners 7
6 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 13
7 Goal Kicks 9
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
19 Dribble Attempts 19
12 Successful Dribbles 11
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Assists 2
62 Ball Safe 77
11 Goal Attempts 11
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

123 Attacks 55
1 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

90 Successful Passes Percentage 85
596 Passes 362
17 Long Passes 51
8 Successful Long Passes 25
536 Successful Passes 309
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
19 Key Passes 12

Defensive

6 Saves 4
14 Tackles 18
37 Duels Won 42
14 Interceptions 6

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 11
8 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

13
Josep Martínez
Josep Martínez Goalkeeper
6.78
15
Francesco Acerbi
Francesco Acerbi Defender
6.85
31
Yann Bisseck
Yann Bisseck
Defender74'
6.61
25
Manuel Akanji
Manuel Akanji Defender
6.81
30
Carlos Augusto
Carlos Augusto Defender
6.88
7
Piotr Zieliński
Piotr Zieliński Midfielder
6.97
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić
Midfielder60'
6.78
11
Luis Henrique
Luis Henrique Midfielder
6.67
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries
Defender84'
6.36
20
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Hakan Çalhanoğlu Midfielder
2
6.74
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella Midfielder
7.12
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco Midfielder
6.76
17
Andy Diouf
Andy Diouf
Midfielder60'
7.24
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
7.51
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny Attacker
7.56
94
Pio Esposito
Pio Esposito
Attacker74'
6.63
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

1
Jean Butez
Jean Butez Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Marc Oliver Kempf
Marc Oliver Kempf Defender
7.11
14
Jacobo Ramón
Jacobo Ramón Defender
7.11
34
Diego Carlos
Diego Carlos Defender
6.83
7
Álvaro Morata
Álvaro Morata
Attacker90'
6.95
3
Álex Valle
Álex Valle Midfielder
6.73
23
Máximo Perrone
Máximo Perrone Midfielder
6.78
33
Lucas Da Cunha
Lucas Da Cunha Midfielder
7.38
6
Maxence Caqueret
Maxence Caqueret
Midfielder70'
7.14
77
Ignace Van der Brempt
Ignace Van der Brempt Midfielder
6.45
28
Ivan Smolcic
Ivan Smolcic
Defender80'
6.95
10
Nico Paz
Nico Paz Attacker
7.37
11
Anastasios Douvikas
Anastasios Douvikas Attacker
7.19
38
Assane Diao
Assane Diao
Attacker70'
6.53
20
Martin Baturina
Martin Baturina Attacker
7.36
17
Jesús Rodríguez
Jesús Rodríguez
Attacker80'
7.19

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Máximo Perrone
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
90'
Event
Álvaro Morata → Diego Carlos
10th Substitution
Event
Petar Sučić
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
89'
Event
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Header / 4th Goal
86'
Event
Denzel Dumfries → Luis Henrique
9th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
Jesús Rodríguez → Martin Baturina
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Ivan Smolcic → Ignace Van der Brempt
8th Substitution
Event
Yann Bisseck → Francesco Acerbi
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Pio Esposito → Ange-Yoan Bonny
6th Substitution
74'
70'
Event
Assane Diao  → Anastasios Douvikas 
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Maxence Caqueret → Lucas Da Cunha 
3rd Substitution
Event
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
69'
Event
Andy Diouf → Federico Dimarco
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Petar Sučić → Piotr Zieliński
2nd Substitution
60'
48'
Event
Lucas Da Cunha 
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Martin Baturina
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Josep Martínez concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Marc Oliver Kempf from Como misses the attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it too high. The cross came from Maxence Caqueret after a corner.
90
Corner Corner
Como wins a corner after Josep Martínez concedes.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Álvaro Morata comes on for Diego Carlos.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Inter Milan winning 3-2 against Como.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Máximo Perrone for Como.
90
Update Update
Marcus Thuram wins a free kick for Inter Milan on the left wing.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Máximo Perrone from Como receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Petar Sucic scores for Inter Milan with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Hakan Çalhanoglu. The score is now Inter Milan 3, Como 2.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Andy Diouf concedes.
88
Corner Corner
Marc Oliver Kempf from Como misses the attempt with a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the left after a corner.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Andy Diouf concedes.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hakan Çalhanoglu scores for Inter Milan with a header from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Petar Sucic's cross. The match is now 2-2.
86
Corner Corner
Goal! Hakan Çalhanoglu scores for Inter Milan with a header from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Petar Sucic's cross. The match is now 2-2.
85
Update Update
Handball by Nico Paz for Como.
84
Update Update
Assane Diao from Como wins a free kick on the left wing.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Denzel Dumfries comes on for Luis Henrique.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Yann Bisseck for Inter Milan.
83
Update Update
Ivan Smolcic of Como is caught offside.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Yann Bisseck of Inter Milan.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Yann Bisseck of Inter Milan.
81
Update Update
Inter Milan is flagged for offside as Andy Diouf is caught in an offside position.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Ivan Smolcic comes on for Ignace Van der Brempt.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Jesús Rodríguez comes on for Martin Baturina.
78
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Jacobo Ramón from Como.
77
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Álex Valle concedes.
76
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Pio Esposito of Inter Milan has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Petar Sucic.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Francesco Pio Esposito comes on for Ange-Yoan Bonny.
74
Corner Corner
Hakan Çalhanoglu's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Jean Butez.
74
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Hakan Çalhanoglu from Inter Milan has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved.
73
Update Update
Marcus Thuram wins a free kick for Inter Milan in the attacking half.
73
Update Update
Foul by Diego Carlos for Como.
71
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Marcus Thuram's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the center of the goal by Jean Butez. The assist came from Andy Diouf.
70
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Assane Diao's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Assane Diao comes on for Tasos Douvikas.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Como: Maxence Caqueret comes on for Lucas da Cunha.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hakan Çalhanoglu scores for Inter Milan with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Petar Sucic. The score is now Inter Milan 1, Como 2.
68
Update Update
Manuel Akanji wins a free kick for Inter Milan on the right wing.
65
Update Update
Inter Milan is called offside as Marcus Thuram is caught in an offside position.
65
Attempt Attempt
Hakan Çalhanoglu of Inter Milan has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. Petar Sucic provided the assist.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan.
62
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Andy Diouf comes on for Federico Dimarco.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Petar Sucic comes on for Piotr Zielinski.
60
Update Update
Carlos Augusto's header from the center of the box for Inter Milan is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic of Inter Milan has his right-footed shot from the left side of the box blocked. The attempt was assisted by Francesco Acerbi.
60
Corner Corner
Inter Milan win a corner after Lucas da Cunha concedes.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nico Paz's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Martin Baturina's cross.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Francesco Acerbi concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Hakan Çalhanoglu's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a foul by Francesco Acerbi.
57
Attempt Attempt
Tasos Douvikas from Como has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Martin Baturina.
56
Attempt Attempt
Piotr Zielinski from Inter Milan misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Nicolò Barella provided the assist.
54
Attempt Attempt
Nicolò Barella's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
53
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Jacobo Ramón concedes.
51
Corner Corner
Inter Milan win a corner after Marc Oliver Kempf concedes.
51
Attempt Attempt
Federico Dimarco's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Ignace Van der Brempt concedes.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Como leads 2-0 after Lucas da Cunha scores with a left-footed shot from a tough angle on the right following a fast break.
45
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lucas da Cunha from Como has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Inter Milan trailing Como 1-0.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Inter Milan trailing Como 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after Josep Martínez concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at Inter Milan 0, Como 1.
43
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Akanji's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Ange-Yoan Bonny.
41
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Álex Valle concedes.
37
Update Update
Marcus Thuram's header from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Federico Dimarco's cross.
37
Corner Corner
Manuel Akanji of Inter Milan misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it too high. Federico Dimarco provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
36
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Ignace Van der Brempt concedes.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lucas da Cunha's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Máximo Perrone provided the assist.
35
Corner Corner
Tasos Douvikas from Como misses a close-range header to the left. He was assisted by Lucas da Cunha, who provided a cross after a corner.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Como after a concession by Carlos Augusto.
34
Update Update
Foul by Hakan Çalhanoglu of Inter Milan.
34
Update Update
Martin Baturina from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Como takes the lead 1-0 with a right-footed shot from the center of the box by Martin Baturina.
27
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Francesco Acerbi of Inter Milan.
26
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Federico Dimarco from Inter Milan has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that is saved.
22
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Ignace Van der Brempt concedes.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Tasos Douvikas of Como.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan.
20
Update Update
Ignace Van der Brempt from Como wins a free kick in the defensive half.
20
Update Update
Francesco Acerbi wins a free kick for Inter Milan in the defensive half.
18
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Ignace Van der Brempt concedes.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ange-Yoan Bonny from Inter Milan misses a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it to the left. Nicolò Barella provided the assist.
13
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Nicolò Barella from Inter Milan has a right-footed shot from outside the box.
9
Corner Corner
Marc Oliver Kempf from Como misses the header from the center of the box after a corner.
8
Corner Corner
Como wins a corner after Josep Martínez concedes.
8
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Martin Baturina from Como has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the bottom left corner by Josep Martínez from Inter Milan. The shot was assisted by Álex Valle.
6
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Ange-Yoan Bonny from Inter Milan, who took a right-footed shot from the left side of the six-yard box.
4
Attempt Attempt
Nico Paz's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
4
Update Update
Hakan Çalhanoglu from Inter Milan wins a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Tasos Douvikas for Como.

CONCLUSION

Inter's 3-2 home win over Como in the second leg confirmed their advancement in the knockout tie, capitalizing on 63% possession to erase the halftime deficit. The significant deviation underscored Inter's edge as the stronger team, consistent with market alignments and efficiency metrics. Without xG or disruptive events like red cards, the result reflected sustained pressure leading to second-half goals. This outcome solidified Inter's progression on a 3-2 aggregate, validating pre-match favoritism despite Como's early resilience.

Inter vs Como preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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