Hull City vs Norwich City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MKM Stadium Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Hull City HUL
2 Winner 1
Norwich City NOR
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Oliver McBurnie - 67', 28' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Touré - 26'

CONTEXT

Hull City pulled off a remarkable 2-1 home win against the stronger Norwich City, defying expectations in a tightly contested Championship clash. The score was level at 1-1 at halftime, with both sides trading blows early on. Norwich dominated possession with 65% to Hull's 35%, creating pressure but failing to convert chances into a lead. Hull, showing resilience, struck decisively in the second half to secure victory without any red cards disrupting play. This outcome reflected minimal structural deviation of 5.9%, staying true to pre-match assessments. No major tactical adjustments defined the latter stages, underscoring Hull's clinical edge and Norwich's wastefulness under duress.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hull City's win featured minimal structural deviation of 5.9%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data was unavailable to evaluate outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No red cards or second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the final scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Smith

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Kitchen

4th Official

S. Lewis

1st Assistant

S. Hudson

2nd Assistant

Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
VS
Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 L
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Birmingham City Rank: 69 D
Sheffield United Rank: 70 L
Coventry City Rank: 79 D
Oxford United Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: 69 D
Derby County Rank: 71 W
Bristol City Rank: 69 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Millwall Rank: 76 W
Portsmouth Rank: 69 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hull City
94.14%
Draw
5.65%
Away Norwich City
0.21%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hull City
+1.8%
Draw
-1.74%
Norwich City
-0.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.3
72.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hull City
Norwich City
Power Score
70.3
72.25
League Position
6
9
Global Rank
196
154

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Norwich City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.71
23.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.54
30.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hull City +0.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Norwich City -0.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Norwich City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hull City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Norwich City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hull City Norwich City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hull City Norwich City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hull City
Norwich City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hull City
vs
Norwich City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hull City Norwich City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hull City 0.15
Norwich City 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hull City Norwich City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hull City 0.02
Norwich City 0.04
Hull City
Norwich City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HUL had peak pressure around 74'.
  • HUL started the game with stronger pressure.
HUL Pressure NOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HUL reached the top pressure at 74' (91.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home
21 matches
Norwich City NOR Away
Match Record
6
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
6
Goals
26
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
26
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:02:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Pandur
Croatia
1 I. Pandur
L. Coyle
England
2 L. Coyle
J. Egan
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
15 J. Egan
C. Hughes
England
4 C. Hughes
R. Giles
England
3 R. Giles
R. Slater
England
27 R. Slater
M. Crooks
Substitution
England
25 M. Crooks
M. Belloumi
Substitution
Algeria
10 M. Belloumi
J. Gelhardt
Substitution
England
21 J. Gelhardt
L. Millar
Substitution
Canada
7 L. Millar
O. McBurnie
Scotland
9 O. McBurnie
Pitch
V. Kovačević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 V. Kovačević
K. Fisher
England
35 K. Fisher
J. Cordoba Chambers
Panama
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
R. McConville
Northern Ireland
15 R. McConville
J. Stacey
England
3 J. Stacey
J. Wright
Substitution
England
16 J. Wright
P. Mattsson
Denmark
7 P. Mattsson
A. Ahmed
Substitution
Canada
21 A. Ahmed
A. Slimane
Substitution
Tunisia
20 A. Slimane
F. Amankwah
Substitution
Ghana
18 F. Amankwah
M. Toure
Substitution
Australia
37 M. Toure

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MKM Stadium
Capacity :
25586
Attendance :
24616
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrew Kitchen
Samuel Lewis
Shaun Hudson
Joshua Smith

Statistics

Possession
HUL
39%
NOR
61%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 12
55 Dangerous attacks 66
35 Possession 65
1 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 24
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
6 Dribble Attempts 17
26 Successful Headers 13
80 Ball Safe 102
1 Assists 1
8 Goal Attempts 8
12 Goal Kicks 8
2 Successful Dribbles 10
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
77 Attacks 112

Possession

61 Successful Passes Percentage 81
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
23 Successful Long Passes 17
69 Long Passes 56
256 Passes 478
157 Successful Passes 388
6 Key Passes 11

Defensive

11 Interceptions 9
14 Tackles 10
1 Saves 4
57 Duels Won 42

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 28
6 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
6.89
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Defender
6.75
3
Ryan Giles
Ryan Giles Defender
6.7
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Defender
7.04
15
John Egan
John Egan Defender
6.88
37
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Patrick James Coleman McNair
Defender46'
6.54
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Midfielder
6.82
36
Lewis Koumas
Lewis Koumas
Attacker82'
6.5
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi Midfielder
6.89
26
Kieran Dowell
Kieran Dowell
Midfielder59'
6.52
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Midfielder
7
22
Kyle Joseph
Kyle Joseph
Attacker60'
6.74
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Midfielder
6.87
5
John Lundstram
John Lundstram
Midfielder87'
6.62
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater Midfielder
6.8
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Attacker
2
7.09
Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey Defender
6.68
15
Ruairi McConville
Ruairi McConville Defender
6.99
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Defender
6.87
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher Defender
6.75
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson Midfielder
6.91
16
Jacob Wright
Jacob Wright Midfielder
6.72
46
Errol Mundle-Smith
Errol Mundle-Smith
Attacker86'
6.39
18
Amankwah Forson
Amankwah Forson Midfielder
6.6
25
Paris Maghoma
Paris Maghoma
Midfielder46'
7.05
20
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Midfielder
6.9
26
Sam Field
Sam Field
Midfielder70'
6.62
21
Ali Ahmed
Ali Ahmed Midfielder
7.04
8
Liam Gibbs
Liam Gibbs
Midfielder46'
6.75
37
Mohamed Touré
Mohamed Touré Attacker
7.3
30
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Attacker82'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matt Crooks
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+5'
Event
Paris Maghoma
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
John Lundstram → Matt Crooks
10th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Errol Mundle-Smith → Jacob Wright
9th Substitution
Event
Lewis Koumas → Liam Millar
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Mathias Kvistgaarden → Mohamed Touré
8th Substitution
Event
Kyle Joseph
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
70'
Event
Sam Field → Anis Slimane
6th Substitution
Event
Oliver McBurnie
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
67'
Event
Kyle Joseph → Joe Gelhardt
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Kieran Dowell → Mohamed Belloumi
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Patrick James Coleman McNair → John Egan
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Liam Gibbs → Ali Ahmed
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Paris Maghoma → Amankwah Forson
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Kellen Fisher
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Oliver McBurnie
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
28'
26'
Event
Mohamed Touré
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Kellen Fisher's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matty Crooks receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Edmond-Paris Maghoma receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Kvistgaarden's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Edmond-Paris Maghoma takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Errol Mundle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
John Lundstram comes on for Matty Crooks.
86
Update Update
Errol Mundle comes on for Jacob Wright.
86
Attempt Attempt
Sam Field takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
83
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie's right-footed shot is saved.
82
Update Update
Louie Koumas replaces Liam Millar.
82
Update Update
Mathias Kvistgaarden comes on for Mohamed Toure.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kyle Joseph receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Sam Field replaces Anis Ben Slimane.
67
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
66
Update Update
Kyle Joseph takes a header, but it goes wide.
62
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
59
Update Update
Kyle Joseph comes on for Joe Gelhardt.
59
Update Update
Kieran Dowell is on, and Belloumi is off.
57
Attempt Attempt
Liam Gibbs takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Update Update
Mohamed Toure's header goes wide.
53
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie's right-footed shot is saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Anis Ben Slimane attempts a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Liam Gibbs is on, and Ali Ahmed is off.
46
Update Update
Edmond-Paris Maghoma is on, and Forson Amankwah is off.
46
Update Update
Liam Gibbs is on, and Ali Ahmed is off.
45
Update Update
Liam Gibbs comes on for Ali Ahmed.
42
Attempt Attempt
Anis Ben Slimane takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Matty Crooks takes a header, but it's saved.
36
Update Update
Matty Crooks attempts a header but misses the target.
28
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Oliver McBurnie scores, making it 1-1.
28
Attempt Attempt
Oliver McBurnie takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
26
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Mohamed Toure scores with a right-footed shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Ruairi McConville attempts a header but misses the shot.
13
Attempt Attempt
Kellen Fisher's right-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hull City exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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