Hull City vs Millwall Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Championship, England

MKM Stadium Fri, 8 May - 7:00 PM

Championship

Hull City HUL

0 – 0

Millwall MLW

Full Time Fri, 8 May 7:00 PM

Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Hull City and Millwall played out a goalless draw in the first leg of their two-legged tie, with the scoreline remaining 0-0 at both halftime and full time. Despite Millwall being considered the stronger team entering the match, they dominated possession with 61% compared to Hull City's 39% but failed to convert their control into goals. Hull City defended resiliently, frustrating Millwall's attacks throughout the 90 minutes. No red cards were shown, and there were no significant second-half adjustments noted. The result leaves the aggregate score level heading into the second leg, keeping the tie delicately poised. Millwall's moderate structural deviation of 7.6% suggests they underperformed relative to expectations without xG data available for deeper analysis. This stalemate maintains parity, with both teams now preparing for the decisive return fixture.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Millwall showed a moderate 7.6% structural deviation in the 0-0 draw.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
Event impact: No major events like red cards influenced the 0-0 result.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

G. Ward

England 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Woodward

1st Assistant

England

H. Karaivanov

2nd Assistant

England

D. Webb

4th Official

England

S. Jakirović

A. Neil

1.59

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

10 - 8 - 8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Hull City

3.59%

Draw

92.36%

Millwall

4.06%

Team Power Ranking

70.68

75.94

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Hull City

Millwall

Power Score

70.68

75.94

League Position

Global Rank

195

103

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score

Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hull City Millwall

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hull City ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Millwall

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

21.28

27.87

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

27.87

21.28

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Hull City -0.67 Efficiency Index

Millwall +0.67 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Hull City

Millwall

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hull City ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Millwall

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Hull City Millwall

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Hull City Millwall

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Hull City

Millwall

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Hull City

Millwall

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Hull City Millwall

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Hull City Millwall

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Hull City

Millwall

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

MLW had peak pressure around 36'.
MLW started the game with stronger pressure.

HUL Pressure MLW Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: MLW reached the top pressure at 36' (67.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hull City HUL Home

26 matches

Millwall MLW Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:03:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 I. Pandur

2 L. Coyle

15 J. Egan

4 C. Hughes

3 R. Giles

27 R. Slater

25 M. Crooks

10 M. Belloumi

21 J. Gelhardt

7 L. Millar

9 O. McBurnie

13 A. Patterson

3 Z. Norton Sturge

5 J. Cooper

4 T. Crama

18 R. Leonard

24 C. De Norre

49 D. Mazou-Sacko

7 T. Ballo

10 C. Neghli

11 F. Azeez

19 J. Coburn

General Information

Date & Time :

May 08, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Championship, England · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2

Stadium :

MKM Stadium

Capacity :

25586

Attendance :

24623

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Gavin Ward

Richard Woodward

Hristo Karaivanov

David Webb

Statistics

Possession

HUL

39%

MLW

61%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 0

4 Shots 5

46 Dangerous attacks 40

39 Possession 61

0 Corners 5

13 Free kicks 8

0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

22 Successful Headers 21

1 Hit Woodwork 1

11 Goal Kicks 9

23 Throwins 35

17 Dribble Attempts 13

5 Successful Dribbles 8

29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

4 Substitutions 4

72 Ball Safe 95

5 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

72 Attacks 113

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53

4 Key Passes 13

160 Successful Passes 339

66 Long Passes 83

265 Passes 430

18 Successful Long Passes 44

60 Successful Passes Percentage 79

Defensive

53 Duels Won 49

8 Interceptions 9

15 Tackles 14

2 Saves 1

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 21

3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

6 Fouls 11

2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Manager ▼

S. Jakirović Coach

Starting XI ▼

Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper

Lewie Coyle Defender

Ryan Giles Defender

Charlie Hughes Defender

John Egan Defender

Liam Millar Midfielder

Yu Hirakawa

Attacker69'

Mohamed Belloumi Midfielder

Kyle Joseph

Attacker70'

Joe Gelhardt Midfielder

Kieran Dowell

Midfielder74'

Matt Crooks Midfielder

Regan Slater Midfielder

John Lundstram

Midfielder88'

Oliver McBurnie Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Yu Hirakawa

Attacker69'

Kyle Joseph

Attacker70'

Kieran Dowell

Midfielder74'

John Lundstram

Midfielder88'

Bench ▼

Dillon Phillips Goalkeeper

Semi Ajayi Defender

Patrick James Coleman McNair Defender

Darko Gyabi Midfielder

Lewis Koumas Attacker

Referee : Gavin Ward