Huesca vs Almería Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio El Alcoraz Fri, 20 Mar - 7:30 PM
La Liga 2
Huesca HUE
1 Winner 3
Almería ALM
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 7:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Dani Ojeda - 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Dion Lopy - 73'
Sergio Arribas - 33' (P)
Léo Baptistão - 11'
|
Red Card Léo Baptistão 57'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Huesca 0–1 Almería. The result saw Almería take the points. Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Huesca J. Pérez Alonso
J. Pérez Alonso
VS
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
0.91
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 L
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
FC Andorra Rank: 61 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete Rank: 67 D
Córdoba Rank: 62 W
FC Andorra Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 7 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Huesca
28.33%
Draw
28.54%
Away Almería
43.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.72
70.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Huesca
Almería
Power Score
59.72
70.38
League Position
19
2
Global Rank
497
187

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Huesca — Opponent-weighted form score
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Huesca Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Huesca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Huesca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.35
29.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.08
32.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Huesca +0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Almería -0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Huesca
Almería
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Huesca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Almería
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Huesca Almería
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Huesca Almería
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Huesca
Almería
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Huesca HUE Home
17 matches
Almería ALM Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
7
Draws
7
4
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
20
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Jiménez López
Spain
13 D. Jiménez López
A. Carrillo Alacid
Substitution
Spain
4 A. Carrillo Alacid
I. Sebastián Magaña
Spain
5 I. Sebastián Magaña
J. Pulido Mayoral
Spain
14 (C) J. Pulido Mayoral
J. Martín Camuñas
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Martín Camuñas
J. Seoane Valenciano
Spain
10 J. Seoane Valenciano
Ó. Sielva Moreno
Spain
23 Ó. Sielva Moreno
I. Laquintana Marsico
Substitution
Uruguay
19 I. Laquintana Marsico
F. Portillo Soler
Substitution
Spain
20 F. Portillo Soler
D. Ojeda Saranova
Substitution
Spain
21 D. Ojeda Saranova
J. Escobar Fernández
Spain
7 J. Escobar Fernández
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
M. Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
S. Dzodic
Serbia
29 S. Dzodic
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
L. Carrilho Baptistão
Brazil
12 (C) L. Carrilho Baptistão
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 20, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio El Alcoraz
Capacity :
9100
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Álvaro Yeray Carreño Cabrera
G. Rius Riu
Marta Huerta de Aza
José Unai García Urbaneja

Statistics

Possession
HUE
50%
ALM
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 5
50 Dangerous attacks 45
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 11
25 Throwins 15
15 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Assists 1
0 Penalties 1
8 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Substitutions 4
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 30
70 Ball Safe 83
1 Injuries 1
10 Goal Attempts 12

Attacking

95 Attacks 94
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

371 Passes 368
77 Successful Passes Percentage 79
285 Successful Passes 291
59 Long Passes 68
10 Key Passes 8
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
24 Successful Long Passes 35

Defensive

11 Tackles 14
9 Interceptions 14
5 Saves 3

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 12
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 19
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Starting XI ▼

13
Dani Jiménez
Dani Jiménez Goalkeeper
6.84
4
Álvaro Carrillo
Álvaro Carrillo Defender
6.27
15
Álex Cantero
Álex Cantero
Attacker71'
6.53
5
Piña
Piña Defender
6.13
8
Jordi Martín
Jordi Martín Defender
6.26
3
Ro Abajas
Ro Abajas
Defender81'
6.45
14
Jorge Pulido
Jorge Pulido (C) Defender
6.78
10
Jaime Seoane
Jaime Seoane Midfielder
7.56
19
Ignacio Laquintana
Ignacio Laquintana Midfielder
6.96
6
Javi Mier
Javi Mier
Midfielder81'
6.6
20
Francisco Portillo
Francisco Portillo Midfielder
6
9
Sergi Enrich
Sergi Enrich
Attacker63'
6.55
21
Dani Ojeda
Dani Ojeda Midfielder
7.37
33
Daniel Luna
Daniel Luna
Midfielder71'
6.25
23
Óscar Sielva
Óscar Sielva Midfielder
6.68
7
Jordi Escobar
Jordi Escobar Attacker
6.99
Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
6.54
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
6.62
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
6.78
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino
Defender81'
6.78
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
7.08
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
7.63
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal
Midfielder81'
6.6
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão (C) Midfielder
6.99
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
7.53
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
6.63
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder90+1'
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Midfielder
7.12
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
6.88
19
Patrick Soko
Patrick Soko
Attacker71'
6.92

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Nico Melamed → Adrián Embarba
9th Substitution
Event
Ro Abajas → Jordi Martín
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Javi Mier → Ignacio Laquintana
7th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Daijiro Chirino → Marcos Luna
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Arnau Puigmal → Sergio Arribas
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Dion Lopy
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Daniel Luna → Dani Ojeda
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Álex Cantero → Álvaro Carrillo
2nd Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Patrick Soko → Miguel de la Fuente
4th Substitution
Event
Jordi Martín
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Sergi Enrich → Francisco Portillo
1st Substitution
63'
57'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Foul / 1st Redcard
56'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Card adjusted
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Miguel de la Fuente
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Marcos Luna
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Sergio Arribas
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
29'
Event
Miguel de la Fuente
Penalty awarded
Event
Dani Ojeda
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
23'
11'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Almería exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Huesca vs Almería preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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