Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium Sat, 16 May - 11:30 AM
Premiership
Hibernian HIB
0 Winner 1
Motherwell MOT
Full Time Sat, 16 May 11:30 AM
Round 38 2nd Phase
|
Goal
Lukas Fadinger - 35'
|
Second yellow card Elliot Watt 67'

CONTEXT

Hibernian faced Motherwell in a contest that concluded 0-1 after a first half that already stood at 0-1. Hibernian entered as the stronger side yet could not overcome the visitors who claimed the points. Expected goals finished at 0.95 for the home team and 1.14 for Motherwell while possession settled at 49 percent to 51 percent. A single red card issued to Motherwell introduced further complications after the interval. The outcome aligned with the underlying numbers despite Hibernian holding the pre-match edge in perceived quality. Motherwell capitalized on their opportunities efficiently and maintained defensive shape to protect the narrow lead throughout the second period. The result highlighted how individual moments and disciplined organization can outweigh nominal team strength on any given afternoon.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Hibernian 0-1 Motherwell. Motherwell showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with measured performance indicators across both sides.
  • xG alignment: The final result stayed consistent with expected goals totals of 0.95 to 1.14.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved misaligned with prevailing market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations pointed to a tight affair with Motherwell holding a modest edge.
  • Event impact: The red card produced a clear event impact that altered second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion materialized after Motherwell received one dismissal during the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Walsh

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Connor

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. McFarlane

2nd Assistant

Scotland

S. Murdoch

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.52
Yellow cards / match 4.11
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
VS
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 76 W
Falkirk Rank: 66 W
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 79 L
Hearts Rank: 75 D
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 74 L
Falkirk Rank: 63 L
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 14 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hibernian
44.5%
Draw
26.51%
Away Motherwell
28.98%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hibernian
+44.31%
Draw
+19.18%
Motherwell
-63.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.26
67.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Motherwell
Power Score
68.26
67.19
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
243
263

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.33
32.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.25
26.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hibernian -0.58 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell +0.58 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian
vs
Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hibernian
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hibernian
vs
Motherwell
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hibernian Motherwell
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian 0.29
Motherwell 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian Motherwell
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian 0.02
Motherwell 0.00
Hibernian
Motherwell
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOT had peak pressure around 67'.
  • MOT started the game with stronger pressure.
HIB Pressure MOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOT reached the top pressure at 67' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hibernian HIB Home
57 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
24
Wins
19
14
Draws
14
19
Losses
24
Goals
95
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
95
+21
Goal Difference
-21
Expected Goals
0.54
xG
0.48
0.48
xGA
0.54

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:54:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
R. Bushiri
Substitution
Belgium
33 R. Bushiri
J. Obita
England
21 J. Obita
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
M. Changa Chaiwa
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
J. Newell
Substitution
England
11 (C) J. Newell
N. Cadden
Scotland
19 N. Cadden
J. McGrath
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
17 J. McGrath
M. Boyle
Australia
10 M. Boyle
O. Elding
Substitution
England
47 O. Elding
Pitch
M. Connolly
Scotland
31 M. Connolly
M. Emmanuel
Substitution
England
45 M. Emmanuel
S. Welsh
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
L. Gordon
Scotland
4 (C) L. Gordon
T. Sparrow
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
L. Fadinger
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
T. Maswanhise
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
C. Slattery
Substitution
England
8 C. Slattery
R. Charles-Cook
Substitution
England
77 R. Charles-Cook
E. Just
Substitution
New Zealand
21 E. Just

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity :
20421
Attendance :
19014
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
N. Walsh
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane
S. Murdoch

Statistics

Possession
HIB
49%
MOT
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 4
38 Dangerous attacks 49
49 Possession 51
7 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 14
5 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
11 Dribble Attempts 21
5 Successful Dribbles 9
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
16 Throwins 21
0 Assists 1
57 Ball Safe 53
4 Goal Attempts 11
8 Goal Kicks 7
2 Injuries 2

Attacking

93 Attacks 65
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 82
8 Key Passes 12
288 Successful Passes 325
68 Long Passes 60
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
24 Successful Long Passes 25
370 Passes 395

Defensive

64 Duels Won 51
29 Tackles 13
1 Interceptions 1
5 Saves 0

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
7.4
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
6.4
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Defender
6.84
33
Rocky Bushiri
Rocky Bushiri Defender
6.54
4
Grant Hanley
Grant Hanley
Defender16'
6.52
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell (C) Midfielder
6.51
20
Josh Mulligan
Josh Mulligan
Midfielder46'
6.64
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
7.13
19
Nicky Cadden
Nicky Cadden Midfielder
6.86
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
6.45
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle Attacker
6.7
17
Jamie McGrath
Jamie McGrath Attacker
6.31
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser
Midfielder46'
6.8
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
6.57
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker70'
7.1
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

31
Matty Connelly
Matty Connelly Goalkeeper
6.72
4
Liam Gordon
Liam Gordon (C) Defender
7.43
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
7.42
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Defender
6.75
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell
Defender87'
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
7.13
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
6.84
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman
Midfielder73'
6.36
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
7.32
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Midfielder
6.09
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry
Attacker83'
6.51
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
6.5
77
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook Midfielder
7.46
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said
Attacker73'
6.31
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
7.42
22
John Koutroumbis
John Koutroumbis
Defender73'
6.28

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicky Cadden
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
89'
87'
Event
Stephen O'Donnell → Emmanuel Longelo
10th Substitution
Event
Martin Boyle
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
84'
83'
Event
Callum Hendry → Tawanda Maswanhise
9th Substitution
74'
Event
Lukas Fadinger
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
73'
Event
John Koutroumbis → Elijah Just
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Oscar Priestman → Callum Slattery
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Ibrahim Said → Regan Charles-Cook
8th Substitution
Event
Miguel Chaiwa
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Ante Suto → Owen Elding
5th Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Elliot Watt
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
66'
Event
Callum Slattery
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Stephen Welsh
Goal disallowed
Event
Dane Scarlett → Grant Hanley
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Josh Mulligan
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
53'
53'
Event
Regan Charles-Cook
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Dan Barlaser → Jamie McGrath
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Josh Mulligan → Joe Newell
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jamie McGrath
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
35'
Event
Lukas Fadinger
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
32'
Event
Elliot Watt
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Grant Hanley → Rocky Bushiri
1st Substitution
16'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ante Suto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Dane Scarlett's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ante Suto takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ante Suto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Stephen Odonnell is on, and Emmanuel Longelo is off.
87
Attempt Attempt
Warren O'Hora's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martin Boyle receives a yellow card.
83
Substitution Substitution
Callum Hendry is substituted off for Tawanda Maswanhise.
80
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise's header is saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Chaiwa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Ante Suto takes a header but misses the shot.
73
Update Update
Oscar Priestman replaces Callum Slattery.
73
Update Update
Johnny Koutroumbis is on, and Elijah Henry is off.
73
Update Update
Ibrahim Said is on, and Regan Charles-Cook is off.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miguel Chaiwa receives a yellow card.
70
Update Update
Ante Suto replaces Owen Elding.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elliot Watt receives a second yellow card.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Callum Slattery receives a yellow card.
62
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Stephen Welsh.
61
Attempt Attempt
Stephen Welsh takes a shot with his head and scores.
60
Attempt Attempt
Callum Slattery takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Update Update
Dane Scarlett replaces Grant Hanley.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Henry's left-footed shot is saved.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Regan Charles-Cook receives a yellow card.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Josh Mulligan receives a yellow card.
46
Substitution Substitution
Josh Mulligan is substituted for Joseph Peter Newell.
46
Update Update
Daniel Barlaser comes on for Jamie McGrath.
45
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Cadden's right-footed shot is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Elliot Watt takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fadinger takes a left-footed shot and scores.
32
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Cadden's left-footed shot is blocked.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Elliot Watt receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Henry takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Callum Slattery's right-footed shot is saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Cadden takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Tawanda Maswanhise takes a header but misses the shot.
24
Attempt Attempt
Liam Gordon takes a shot with his head but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Regan Charles-Cook takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Substitution Substitution
Grant Hanley is substituted for Rocky Bushiri Kiranga.
13
Attempt Attempt
Tom Sparrow takes a shot with his head but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Henry takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Elijah Henry takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Hibernian 0-1 Motherwell. Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Hibernian vs Motherwell preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.