Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Easter Road Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM

Premiership

Hibernian HIB

Kilmarnock KIL

Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

Ante Suto - 90+3'

Felix Passlack - 12'

Owen Elding - 1'

CONTEXT

The match between Hibernian and Kilmarnock has finished, with Hibernian securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. The outcome perfectly aligned with pre-match market expectations, which strongly favored the home side with a 61.1% win probability, compared to a 23.4% chance of a draw and just a 15.5% chance for a Kilmarnock upset. Driven by this outcome, the match registered a significant deviation level of 38.9% favoring the stronger side, Hibernian. During the contest, Hibernian controlled the flow of the game by maintaining a slight edge in possession, holding the ball for 52% of the match to Kilmarnock's 48%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to definitively state whether the narrow scoreline was consistent with the overall quality of chances created. Despite the lack of xG metrics, overall team efficiency operated exactly in line with baseline expectations, as Hibernian successfully converted their narrow control into a victory. The flow of the game was also completely uninterrupted by severe disciplinary issues, as zero red cards were issued to either team. Ultimately, the pre-match favorite confidently secured the win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Hibernian showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

C. Scott

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Nelson

1st Assistant

A. Taylor

2nd Assistant

D. McFarlane

4th Official

D. Gray

N. McCann

1.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.8

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

26 - 17 - 14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Hibernian

61.11%

Draw

23.39%

Kilmarnock

15.5%

Team Power Ranking

69.31

56.23

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Power Score

69.31

56.23

League Position

Global Rank

206

587

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score

Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Kilmarnock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

12.40

28.02

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

28.02

12.40

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Hibernian -1.50 Efficiency Index

Kilmarnock +1.50 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Hibernian Kilmarnock

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Hibernian Kilmarnock

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Hibernian Kilmarnock

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Hibernian Kilmarnock

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Hibernian

Kilmarnock

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hibernian HIB Home

57 matches

Kilmarnock KIL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+20

Goal Difference

-20

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 R. Sallinger

5 W. O'Hora

4 G. Hanley

15 J. Iredale

25 F. Passlack

14 M. Changa Chaiwa

22 D. Barlaser

21 J. Obita

17 J. McGrath

47 O. Elding

44 D. Scarlett

13 K. Roos

21 M. Schjonning-Larsen

6 R. Deas

14 G. Stanger

2 J. Brandon

31 L. Polworth

36 A. Tshibola

52 F. Curtis

11 G. Kiltie

8 B. Lyons

44 J. Hugill

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Easter Road Stadium

Capacity :

20421

Attendance :

18927

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Calum Scott

Ross Nelson

Alaistair Taylor

Dan McFarlane

Statistics

Possession

HIB

51%

KIL

49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0

3 Big Chances Created 1

5 Shots 11

29 Dangerous attacks 49

52 Possession 48

3 Corners 9

15 Free kicks 9

1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Attempts 3

5 Substitutions 5

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

3 Assists 0

102 Ball Safe 63

0 Hit Woodwork 1

14 Successful Headers 15

6 Goal Kicks 2

8 Dribble Attempts 10

17 Throwins 23

3 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 123

0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

5 Key Passes 8

82 Successful Passes Percentage 84

30 Successful Long Passes 19

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59

387 Successful Passes 349

69 Long Passes 32

473 Passes 416

Defensive

7 Interceptions 3

40 Duels Won 38

2 Saves 0

8 Tackles 10

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 31

1 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 15

2 Offsides 6

Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Manager ▼

D. Gray Coach

Starting XI ▼

Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper

Grant Hanley Defender

Warren O'Hora Defender

Jack Iredale Defender

Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder

Kai Andrews

Midfielder73'

Jordan Obita Midfielder

Dan Barlaser Midfielder

Joe Newell

Midfielder64'

Felix Passlack Midfielder

Jamie McGrath Attacker

Martin Boyle

Attacker88'

Dane Scarlett Attacker

Ante Suto

Attacker64'

Owen Elding Attacker

Josh Campbell

Midfielder88'

Substitutes ▼

Ante Suto

Attacker64'

Joe Newell

Midfielder64'

Kai Andrews

Midfielder73'

Josh Campbell

Midfielder88'

Martin Boyle

Attacker88'

Bench ▼

Jordan Smith Goalkeeper

Chris Cadden Defender

Kanayo Megwa Defender

Alasana Manneh Midfielder

Referee : Calum Scott