Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Hibernian HIB
3 Winner 0
Kilmarnock KIL
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Ante Suto - 90+3'
Felix Passlack - 12'
Owen Elding - 1'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Hibernian and Kilmarnock has finished, with Hibernian securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. The outcome perfectly aligned with pre-match market expectations, which strongly favored the home side with a 61.1% win probability, compared to a 23.4% chance of a draw and just a 15.5% chance for a Kilmarnock upset. Driven by this outcome, the match registered a significant deviation level of 38.9% favoring the stronger side, Hibernian. During the contest, Hibernian controlled the flow of the game by maintaining a slight edge in possession, holding the ball for 52% of the match to Kilmarnock's 48%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to definitively state whether the narrow scoreline was consistent with the overall quality of chances created. Despite the lack of xG metrics, overall team efficiency operated exactly in line with baseline expectations, as Hibernian successfully converted their narrow control into a victory. The flow of the game was also completely uninterrupted by severe disciplinary issues, as zero red cards were issued to either team. Ultimately, the pre-match favorite confidently secured the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hibernian showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Scott

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Nelson

1st Assistant

A. Taylor

2nd Assistant

D. McFarlane

4th Official

Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Celtic Rank: 77 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 54 W
Hearts Rank: 73 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 17 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hibernian
61.11%
Draw
23.39%
Away Kilmarnock
15.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.31
56.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
Power Score
69.31
56.23
League Position
5
11
Global Rank
206
587

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Kilmarnock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
12.40
28.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.02
12.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hibernian -1.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Kilmarnock +1.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian Kilmarnock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian Kilmarnock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hibernian
vs
Kilmarnock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hibernian Kilmarnock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian 0.17
Kilmarnock 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian Kilmarnock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian 0.00
Kilmarnock 0.10
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hibernian HIB Home
57 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
26
Wins
14
17
Draws
17
14
Losses
26
Goals
90
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
90
+20
Goal Difference
-20

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
G. Hanley
Scotland
4 G. Hanley
J. Iredale
Australia
15 J. Iredale
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
M. Changa Chaiwa
Substitution
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
D. Barlaser
Substitution
England
22 D. Barlaser
J. Obita
England
21 J. Obita
J. McGrath
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
17 J. McGrath
O. Elding
Substitution
England
47 O. Elding
D. Scarlett
Substitution
England
44 D. Scarlett
Pitch
K. Roos
Netherlands
13 K. Roos
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
R. Deas
Scotland
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
J. Brandon
Substitution
Scotland
2 J. Brandon
L. Polworth
Substitution
Scotland
31 L. Polworth
A. Tshibola
Substitution
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
F. Curtis
Substitution
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
G. Kiltie
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
B. Lyons
Substitution
Northern Ireland
8 B. Lyons
J. Hugill
England
44 J. Hugill

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity :
20421
Attendance :
18927
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Calum Scott
Ross Nelson
Alaistair Taylor
Dan McFarlane

Statistics

Possession
HIB
51%
KIL
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 11
29 Dangerous attacks 49
52 Possession 48
3 Corners 9
15 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
3 Assists 0
102 Ball Safe 63
0 Hit Woodwork 1
14 Successful Headers 15
6 Goal Kicks 2
8 Dribble Attempts 10
17 Throwins 23
3 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 123
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

5 Key Passes 8
82 Successful Passes Percentage 84
30 Successful Long Passes 19
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
387 Successful Passes 349
69 Long Passes 32
473 Passes 416

Defensive

7 Interceptions 3
40 Duels Won 38
2 Saves 0
8 Tackles 10

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 31
1 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 6

Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
4
Grant Hanley
Grant Hanley Defender
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
15
Jack Iredale
Jack Iredale Defender
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
28
Kai Andrews
Kai Andrews
Midfielder73'
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Midfielder
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser Midfielder
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell
Midfielder64'
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
17
Jamie McGrath
Jamie McGrath Attacker
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle
Attacker88'
44
Dane Scarlett
Dane Scarlett Attacker
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker64'
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell
Midfielder88'
Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

13
Kelle Roos
Kelle Roos Goalkeeper
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Defender
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson
Defender71'
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
8
Brad Joseph Lyons
Brad Joseph Lyons Midfielder
12
David Watson
David Watson
Midfielder62'
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
31
Liam Polworth
Liam Polworth Midfielder
23
Marley Watkins
Marley Watkins
Attacker62'
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson
Attacker81'
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
22
Jack Thomson
Jack Thomson
Midfielder81'
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ante Suto
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+3'
Event
Josh Campbell → Owen Elding
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Martin Boyle → Jamie McGrath
9th Substitution
88'
81'
Event
Jack Thomson → Findlay Curtis
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Bruce Anderson → Aaron Tshibola
7th Substitution
Event
Kai Andrews → Miguel Chaiwa
6th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Dominic Thompson → Jamie Brandon
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Aaron Tshibola
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ante Suto → Dane Scarlett
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Joe Newell → Dan Barlaser
3rd Substitution
64'
62'
Event
David Watson → Brad Joseph Lyons
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Marley Watkins → Liam Polworth
1st Substitution
Event
Dan Barlaser
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
54'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Goal disallowed
18'
Event
George Stanger
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Felix Passlack
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
Event
Owen Elding
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ante Suto scores for Hibernian in the 93rd minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Martin Boyle is substituted for Hibernian in the 88th minute.
88
Substitution Substitution
Josh Campbell is substituted for Hibernian in the 88th minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Bruce Anderson is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 81st minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Shaun Thomson is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 81st minute.
73
Substitution Substitution
Kai Andrews is substituted for Hibernian in the 73rd minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Dominic Thompson is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 71st minute.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aaron Tshibola of Kilmarnock receives a yellow card in the 65th minute.
64
Substitution Substitution
Ante Suto of Hibernian is substituted in the 64th minute.
64
Substitution Substitution
Joe Newell is substituted for Hibernian in the 64th minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
Marley Watkins is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 62nd minute.
62
Substitution Substitution
David Watson is substituted for Kilmarnock in the 62nd minute.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Barlaser of Hibernian receives a yellow card in the 54th minute.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Findlay Curtis of Kilmarnock receives a yellow card in the 39th minute.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
George Stanger of Kilmarnock receives a yellow card in the 18th minute.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Felix Passlack scores for Hibernian at the 12th minute.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Owen Elding scores for Hibernian in the 1st minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hibernian exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Hibernian vs Kilmarnock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.