Hibernian vs Hearts Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland

Easter Road Stadium Sun, 26 Apr - 3:30 PM

Premiership

Hibernian HIB

Hearts Hearts

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:30 PM

Round 34 2nd Phase

Martin Boyle - 7'

Blair Spittal - 86'

Warren O'Hora - 65' (Own Goal)

Raphael Sallinger 14'

Felix Passlack 48'

CONTEXT

Hibernian faced Hearts in an intense Edinburgh derby, falling 1-2 despite leading 1-0 at halftime. The home side struck first but crumbled in the second half after two red cards left them with nine men. Hearts dominated with 76% possession compared to Hibernian's mere 24%, showcasing superior control and pressing the advantage relentlessly. The visitors, identified as the stronger team pre-match, overturned the deficit efficiently once numerical superiority was gained. Hibernian's early promise evaporated under the pressure of dismissals, allowing Hearts to secure a deserved victory. This outcome highlighted the impact of disciplinary lapses in a fiercely contested local rivalry, where resilience met overwhelming dominance.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 2.6% in favor of Hearts.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final outcome.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
Event impact: Two red cards to Hibernian decisively altered match flow.
Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Robertson

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Steven

4th Official

R. MacLeod

1st Assistant

D. Roome

2nd Assistant

D. Gray

D. McInnes

1.6

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.92

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

15 - 20 - 25

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Hibernian

0.19%

Draw

2.38%

Hearts

97.43%

Movement

Changes since opening

Hibernian

Draw

-1.32%

Hearts

+1.32%

Team Power Ranking

30.04

37.17

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Hibernian

Hearts

Power Score

30.04

37.17

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score

Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Hearts

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Hearts

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

18.54

36.51

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

36.51

18.54

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Hibernian -1.74 Efficiency Index

Hearts +1.74 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Hibernian

Hearts

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Hearts

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Hibernian Hearts

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Hibernian Hearts

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Hibernian

Hearts

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Hibernian

Hearts

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Hibernian Hearts

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Hibernian Hearts

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Hibernian

Hearts

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Hearts had peak pressure around 62'.
HIB started the game with stronger pressure.

HIB Pressure Hearts Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Hearts reached the top pressure at 62' (94.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hibernian HIB Home

60 matches

Hearts Hearts Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-22

Goal Difference

+22

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:07:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

1 R. Sallinger

5 W. O'Hora

33 R. Bushiri

21 J. Obita

25 F. Passlack

14 M. Changa Chaiwa

22 D. Barlaser

19 N. Cadden

17 J. McGrath

10 M. Boyle

47 O. Elding

25 A. Schwolow

19 S. Findlay

4 C. Halkett

15 M. Steinwender

3 S. Kingsley

6 B. Baningime

49 M. Leonard

23 J. Altena

9 L. Shankland

11 P. Kabore

10 C. Soares Braga

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 03:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase

Stadium :

Easter Road Stadium

Capacity :

20421

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Colin Steven

Ross MacLeod

Don Robertson

D. Roome

Statistics

Possession

HIB

31%

Hearts

69%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 1

1 Shots 6

9 Dangerous attacks 95

24 Possession 76

0 Corners 11

17 Free kicks 8

5 Yellow Cards 3

2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0

4 Goal Attempts 14

78 Ball Safe 62

5 Successful Dribbles 4

10 Dribble Attempts 17

1 Assists 1

14 Throwins 27

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24

11 Goal Kicks 4

5 Substitutions 5

0 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1

64 Attacks 138

Possession

14 Successful Long Passes 19

76 Successful Passes 413

79 Long Passes 42

18 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

43 Successful Passes Percentage 81

3 Key Passes 20

175 Passes 507

Defensive

65 Duels Won 57

21 Tackles 10

5 Interceptions 6

5 Saves 0

Build-up

2 Total Crosses 47

1 Accurate Crosses 14

Discipline

0 Offsides 2

8 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Don Robertson

Manager ▼

D. Gray Coach

Starting XI ▼

Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper

6.98

Warren O'Hora Defender

6.97

Jordan Obita Defender

6.75

Rocky Bushiri Defender

6.87

Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder

6.76

Nicky Cadden Midfielder

6.98

Jordan Smith

Goalkeeper15'

6.76

Dan Barlaser Midfielder

6.89

Joe Newell

Midfielder64'

6.63

Felix Passlack Midfielder

7.05

Martin Boyle Attacker

6.71

Ante Suto

Attacker64'

6.85

Jamie McGrath Attacker

7.3

Josh Campbell

Midfielder64'

6.68

Owen Elding Attacker

6.99

Kanayo Megwa

Defender50'

6.73

Substitutes ▼

Jordan Smith

Goalkeeper15'

6.76

Kanayo Megwa

Defender50'

6.73

Joe Newell

Midfielder64'

6.63

Josh Campbell

Midfielder64'

6.68

Ante Suto

Attacker64'

6.85

Bench ▼

Chris Cadden Defender

6.72

Jack Iredale Defender

6.87

Kai Andrews Midfielder

6.58

Dane Scarlett Attacker

6.53

Referee : Don Robertson