Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium Sun, 3 May - 11:00 AM
Premiership
Hibernian HIB
1 Winner 2
Celtic CEL
Full Time Sun, 3 May 11:00 AM
Round 35 2nd Phase
Joe Newell - 45+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Kelechi Iheanacho - 72'
Daizen Maeda - 41'
Jamie McGrath 21' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Hibernian welcomed Celtic to Easter Road in a pulsating Scottish Premiership encounter that concluded 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The first half delivered end-to-end action, with both teams netting once to sit level at 1-1 at the break. Celtic then took command after halftime, boasting 81% possession against Hibernian's 19%, reflecting their superior control and pressing game. A red card to Hibernian altered the game's structure dramatically, leaving the hosts a man down and vulnerable. Despite the setback, Hibernian showed grit, but Celtic's quality prevailed with a decisive second goal. As the pre-designated stronger team, Celtic's victory highlighted their ability to exploit numerical advantages and maintain composure under pressure, solidifying their campaign momentum.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic's 1-2 win featured a 39.3% structural deviation rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from available data.
  • Event impact: Hibernian's red card created pivotal second-half momentum shift.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Hibernian distorted second-half dynamics significantly.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Dickinson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Spence

1st Assistant

D. Ross

2nd Assistant

I. Snedden

4th Official

Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Aberdeen Rank: 56 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 58 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 17 - 36
36

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hibernian
18.3%
Draw
21.02%
Away Celtic
60.68%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hibernian
+18.11%
Draw
+18.64%
Celtic
-36.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.35
78.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Celtic
Power Score
67.35
78.24
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
266
76

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hibernian Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.68
38.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.27
23.68
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hibernian -1.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Celtic +1.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Celtic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hibernian ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian Celtic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian Celtic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Celtic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hibernian
vs
Celtic
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hibernian Celtic
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian 0.40
Celtic 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian Celtic
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian 0.03
Celtic 0.10
Hibernian
Celtic
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 41'.
  • CEL started the game with stronger pressure.
HIB Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 41' (78.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 63 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hibernian HIB Home
63 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
10
Wins
36
17
Draws
17
36
Losses
10
Goals
57
Goals Scored
118
118
Goals Conceded
57
-61
Goal Difference
+61

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:02:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Smith
England
13 J. Smith
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
R. Bushiri
Belgium
33 R. Bushiri
J. Iredale
Substitution
Australia
15 J. Iredale
K. Megwa
England
27 K. Megwa
M. Changa Chaiwa
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
J. Newell
Substitution
England
11 J. Newell
N. Cadden
Substitution
Scotland
19 N. Cadden
J. McGrath
Republic of Ireland
17 J. McGrath
M. Boyle
Substitution
Australia
10 M. Boyle
O. Elding
Substitution
England
47 O. Elding
Pitch
V. Sinisalo
Finland
12 V. Sinisalo
K. Tierney
Scotland
63 K. Tierney
L. Scales
Republic of Ireland
5 L. Scales
A. Trusty
United States
6 A. Trusty
A. Johnston
Substitution
Canada
2 A. Johnston
A. Engels
Belgium
27 A. Engels
C. McGregor
Scotland
42 C. McGregor
S. Tounekti
Substitution
Tunisia
23 S. Tounekti
B. Nygren
Substitution
Sweden
8 B. Nygren
H. Yang
Substitution
South Korea
13 H. Yang
D. Maeda
Japan
38 D. Maeda

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity :
20421
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Dickinson
Calum Spence
Douglas Ross
Iain Snedden

Statistics

Possession
HIB
26%
CEL
74%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 7
10 Dangerous attacks 80
19 Possession 81
0 Corners 13
11 Free kicks 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Goal Kicks 3
15 Throwins 16
5 Dribble Attempts 11
5 Successful Dribbles 3
100 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4
75 Ball Safe 80
1 Injuries 1
4 Goal Attempts 13

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
30 Attacks 126

Possession

1 Key Passes 18
162 Passes 725
18 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
62 Long Passes 50
51 Successful Passes Percentage 89
83 Successful Passes 647
11 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

43 Duels Won 30
9 Tackles 5
15 Interceptions 4
4 Saves 0

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 4
9 Total Crosses 27

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

13
Jordan Smith
Jordan Smith Goalkeeper
6.78
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
6.94
15
Jack Iredale
Jack Iredale Defender
6.87
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker81'
6.8
33
Rocky Bushiri
Rocky Bushiri Defender
6.87
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell Midfielder
6.61
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser
Midfielder73'
6.88
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
6.76
19
Nicky Cadden
Nicky Cadden Midfielder
6.96
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita
Defender46'
6.75
27
Kanayo Megwa
Kanayo Megwa Midfielder
6.71
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle Attacker
6.74
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell
Midfielder46'
6.66
17
Jamie McGrath
Jamie McGrath Attacker
7.3
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
6.94
44
Dane Scarlett
Dane Scarlett
Attacker81'
6.53
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
6.69
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Defender
7.29
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan
Midfielder64'
6.78
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Defender
7.09
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
6.98
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
7.26
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
7.41
56
Anthony Ralston
Anthony Ralston
Defender77'
6.88
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
6.96
17
Kelechi Iheanacho
Kelechi Iheanacho
Attacker70'
6.78
23
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti Midfielder
6.9
49
James Forrest
James Forrest
Midfielder63'
6.75
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels Midfielder
6.91
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor Midfielder
7.11
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Attacker
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Luke McCowan
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Ante Suto
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Arne Engels
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Dane Scarlett → Owen Elding
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Ante Suto → Jack Iredale
9th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Anthony Ralston → Benjamin Nygren
7th Substitution
Event
Dan Barlaser → Joe Newell
6th Substitution
73'
72'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
70'
Event
Kelechi Iheanacho → Hyun-jun Yang
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Luke McCowan → Alistair Johnston
4th Substitution
63'
Event
James Forrest → Sebastian Tounekti
3rd Substitution
Event
Josh Campbell
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
54'
Event
Liam Scales
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jordan Obita
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
Event
Josh Campbell → Martin Boyle
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Jordan Obita → Nicky Cadden
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Joe Newell
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+3'
42'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Goal awarded
41'
Event
Daizen Maeda
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Jamie McGrath
Foul / 1st Redcard
21'
Event
Jamie McGrath
Card adjusted
20'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Arne Engels receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Ante Suto takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Dane Scarlett takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Update Update
Dane Scarlett replaces Owen Elding.
81
Update Update
Ante Suto is on, and Jack Iredale is off.
77
Update Update
Anthony Ralston replaces Benjamin Nygren.
73
Update Update
Daniel Barlaser comes on for Joseph Peter Newell.
72
Update Update
Goal! Kelechi Iheanacho scores, making it 1-2.
72
Attempt Attempt
Kelechi Iheanacho scores with a left-footed shot.
70
Update Update
Kelechi Iheanacho comes on for Hyun-jun Yang.
69
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney's left-footed shot is saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney's left-footed shot is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Luke McCowan takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
James Forrest takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
64
Update Update
Luke McCowan is on, and Alistair Johnston is off.
63
Update Update
James Forrest is on, and Sebastian Tounekti is off.
61
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney takes a left-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Callum McGregor takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Obita receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Josh Campbell replaces Martin Boyle.
46
Update Update
Jordan Obita replaces Nicky Cadden.
45
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Peter Newell scores with a left-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Tounekti takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Arne Engels takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
42
Update Update
The VAR decision confirms the goal for Daizen Maeda.
41
Update Update
Goal! Daizen Maeda scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Alistair Johnston.
41
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
Attempt Attempt
Callum McGregor takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Callum McGregor takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Auston Trusty's left-footed shot is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Alistair Johnston takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Callum McGregor's left-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren's left-footed shot is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Hyun-jun Yang takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Red Card Red Card Important
Jamie McGrath receives a red card.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jamie McGrath receives a yellow card.
16
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren's left-footed shot is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
Liam Scales takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Cadden takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Daizen Maeda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Celtic exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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