Hellas Verona vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Hellas Verona VER
0 Winner 1
AC Milan MIL
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal

CONTEXT

AC Milan claimed a 1-0 victory over Hellas Verona in a Serie A match marked by discipline and efficiency. The lone goal arrived in the first half, setting the tone as Milan, the pre-designated stronger team, controlled proceedings with 53% possession against Verona's 47%. Hellas Verona pushed for an equalizer but failed to create decisive breakthroughs, resulting in a clean sheet for the visitors. No red cards were issued, and the game proceeded without major disruptions or second-half tactical overhauls. Pre-match market probabilities positioned Milan as clear favorites at 61.8%, with the outcome aligning closely despite a significant 38.2% structural deviation favoring Milan. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations, though xG data absence limits deeper chance quality insights. This narrow win underscores Milan's ability to grind out results on the road against resilient home sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AC Milan recorded a significant 38.2% structural deviation in the match outcome.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without relevant metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events impacted the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Chiffi

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Zingarelli

1st Assistant

P. Laudato

2nd Assistant

L. Massimi

4th Official

Hellas Verona P. Sammarco
P. Sammarco
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
0.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: L
Fiorentina Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: L
Genoa Rank: L
Bologna Rank: W
Napoli Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Udinese Rank: L
Napoli Rank: L
Torino Rank: W
Lazio Rank: L
Inter Rank: W
Cremonese Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hellas Verona
14.5%
Draw
23.72%
Away AC Milan
61.78%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hellas Verona
+14.31%
Draw
+19.52%
AC Milan
-33.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.37
31.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hellas Verona
AC Milan
Power Score
12.37
31.79
League Position
19
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hellas Verona — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hellas Verona AC Milan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hellas Verona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hellas Verona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.85
14.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.91
30.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hellas Verona +1.61 Efficiency Index
vs
AC Milan -1.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hellas Verona
AC Milan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hellas Verona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hellas Verona AC Milan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hellas Verona AC Milan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hellas Verona
AC Milan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hellas Verona
vs
AC Milan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hellas Verona AC Milan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hellas Verona 0.43
AC Milan 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hellas Verona AC Milan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hellas Verona 0.03
AC Milan 0.00
Hellas Verona
AC Milan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VER had peak pressure around 73'.
  • MIL started the game with stronger pressure.
VER Pressure MIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VER reached the top pressure at 73' (76.97).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hellas Verona VER Home
22 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
15
4
Draws
4
15
Losses
3
Goals
21
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
21
-21
Goal Difference
+21

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:02:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
L. Montipò
Italy
1 L. Montipò
V. Nelsson
Denmark
15 V. Nelsson
A. Edmundsson
Faroe Islands
5 A. Edmundsson
N. Valentini
Argentina
6 N. Valentini
D. Oyegoke
Substitution
England
2 D. Oyegoke
J. Akpa Akpro
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 J. Akpa Akpro
R. Gagliardini
Substitution
Italy
63 R. Gagliardini
D. Bradarić
Substitution
Croatia
12 D. Bradarić
R. Belghali
Algeria
7 R. Belghali
A. Bernede
Substitution
France
24 A. Bernede
G. Orban
Nigeria
16 G. Orban
Pitch
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
M. Gabbia
Italy
46 M. Gabbia
F. Tomori
England
23 F. Tomori
D. Bartesaghi
Italy
33 D. Bartesaghi
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
L. Modrić
Croatia
14 L. Modrić
Y. Fofana
Substitution
France
19 Y. Fofana
Z. Athekame
Substitution
Switzerland
24 Z. Athekame
C. Pulisic
Substitution
United States
11 C. Pulisic
R. Conceição Leão
Substitution
Portugal
10 R. Conceição Leão

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi
Capacity :
39045
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Zingarelli
Paolo Laudato
Daniele Chiffi
Luca Massimi

Statistics

Possession
VER
48%
MIL
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 2
30 Dangerous attacks 38
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 1
6 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

13 Throwins 26
11 Dribble Attempts 14
76 Ball Safe 92
5 Substitutions 4
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
15 Successful Headers 10
2 Goal Kicks 8
2 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 3
3 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Assists 1

Attacking

103 Attacks 96
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

48 Long Passes 58
354 Successful Passes 410
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
9 Key Passes 3
423 Passes 493
24 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

12 Interceptions 1
16 Tackles 12
1 Saves 2
40 Duels Won 37

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 8
5 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

13 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

1
Lorenzo Montipò
Lorenzo Montipò Goalkeeper
6.56
5
Andrias Edmundsson
Andrias Edmundsson Defender
6.8
6
Nicolás Valentini
Nicolás Valentini Defender
6.65
15
Victor Nelsson
Victor Nelsson Defender
6.76
2
Daniel Oyegoke
Daniel Oyegoke Midfielder
6.56
14
Pol Lirola
Pol Lirola
Defender21'
6.43
11
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro Midfielder
6.84
73
Moatasem Al-Musrati
Moatasem Al-Musrati
Midfielder64'
6.6
12
Domagoj Bradarić
Domagoj Bradarić Midfielder
6.65
90
Ioan Vermeșan
Ioan Vermeșan
Attacker46'
6.53
63
Roberto Gagliardini
Roberto Gagliardini Midfielder
6.93
4
Sandi Lovrić
Sandi Lovrić
Midfielder83'
6.68
7
Rafik Belghali
Rafik Belghali Attacker
6.71
16
Gift Orban
Gift Orban Attacker
6.79
24
Antoine Bernede
Antoine Bernede Attacker
6.68
41
Isaac
Isaac
Attacker82'
6.64
Referee : Daniele Chiffi

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
7.08
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
6.97
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
6.97
46
Matteo Gabbia
Matteo Gabbia Defender
6.9
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
7.28
14
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić Midfielder
7.35
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
6.82
4
Samuele Ricci
Samuele Ricci
Midfielder64'
6.82
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame Midfielder
6.6
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers
Attacker63'
7.15
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder
7
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
7.02
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
Attacker63'
6.58
11
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic Attacker
7.18
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku
Attacker80'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Moatasem Al-Musrati
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Sandi Lovrić → Roberto Gagliardini
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Isaac → Antoine Bernede
8th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Christopher Nkunku → Christian Pulisic
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Var
Event
Moatasem Al-Musrati → Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
5th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Samuele Ricci → Youssouf Fofana
6th Substitution
63'
Event
Alexis Saelemaekers → Zachary Athekame
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Santiago Gimenez → Rafael Leão
3rd Substitution
Event
Ioan Vermeșan → Domagoj Bradarić
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Adrien Rabiot
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Pol Lirola → Daniel Oyegoke
1st Substitution
21'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan had a left-footed shot from the center of the box that was blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Samuele Ricci from AC Milan had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked.
90
Update Update
Isaac from Verona won a free kick on the left wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Luka Modric - AC Milan.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Verona 0, AC Milan 1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Al Musrati of Verona took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Samuele Ricci of AC Milan.
90
Update Update
Isaac from Verona won a free kick in defense.
89
Update Update
Samuele Ricci of AC Milan won a free kick in the attacking area.
89
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini fouled in Verona.
88
Attempt Attempt
Gift Orban's shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
86
Update Update
Samuele Ricci of AC Milan won a free kick in the attacking area.
86
Update Update
Samuele Ricci of AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
86
Update Update
Isaac from Verona won a free kick in defense.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Al Musrati against Verona.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after Matteo Gabbia concedes.
84
Corner Corner
AC Milan wins a corner after Al Musrati concedes.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Al Musrati from Verona receives a yellow card for a foul.
84
Update Update
Luka Modric of AC Milan won a free kick in defense.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after Davide Bartesaghi concedes.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Sandi Lovric replaces Roberto Gagliardini.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Isaac replaces Antoine Bernede.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Christopher Nkunku replaces Christian Pulisic.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Rabiot - AC Milan.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Rabiot - AC Milan.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after Matteo Gabbia concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
Gift Orban's shot for Verona from the right side of the box is blocked. Roberto Gagliardini provided the assist.
74
Update Update
Offside called against AC Milan. Matteo Gabbia is offside.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Roberto Gagliardini against Verona.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Fikayo Tomori of AC Milan.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ioan Vermesan from Verona had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it went close and missed. Antoine Bernede provided the assist.
69
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Ioan Vermesan from Verona takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after Fikayo Tomori concedes.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after Fikayo Tomori concedes.
65
Update Update
Antoine Bernede fouled a player from Verona.
65
Update Update
Samuele Ricci of AC Milan won a free kick in the attacking area.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Samuele Ricci replaces Youssouf Fofana due to injury.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Al Musrati replaces Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Santiago Giménez replaces Rafael Leão.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Alexis Saelemaekers replaces Zachary Athekame.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after a concession by Matteo Gabbia.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro of Verona.
58
Update Update
Rafael Leão of AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Rabiot - AC Milan.
57
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Gift Orban from Verona won a free kick in defense.
56
Attempt Attempt
Christian Pulisic's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Davide Bartesaghi.
55
Update Update
Christian Pulisic from AC Milan won a free kick in an attacking position.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro of Verona.
53
Attempt Attempt
Rafik Belghali from Verona had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. Antoine Bernede provided the assist.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after a concession by Davide Bartesaghi.
49
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini fouled a player from Verona.
49
Update Update
Luka Modric of AC Milan won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Foul by Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro for Verona.
47
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic of AC Milan won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Zachary Athekame from AC Milan won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Rafik Belghali of Verona.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Rafik Belghali from Verona takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Verona 0, AC Milan 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Ioan Vermesan replaces Domagoj Bradaric.
45
Update Update
Offside called against Verona. Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro is offside.
43
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Roberto Gagliardini of Verona.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Roberto Gagliardini from Verona.
36
Attempt Attempt
Gift Orban's shot from outside the box is blocked. Antoine Bernede provided the assist.
34
Attempt Attempt
Gift Orban's shot from outside the box is blocked.
33
Update Update
Victor Nelsson of Verona won a free kick in an attacking position.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Youssouf Fofana of AC Milan.
32
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Lorenzo Montipò of Verona saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Youssouf Fofana.
25
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Davide Bartesaghi of AC Milan takes a left-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick, but it goes high.
24
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan won a free kick in the attacking area.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona receives a yellow card for a foul.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro of Verona.
21
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Pol Lirola replaces Daniel Oyegoke due to injury.
20
Update Update
Antoine Bernede fouled a player from Verona.
20
Update Update
Davide Bartesaghi of AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
17
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Daniel Oyegoke from Verona.
13
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
13
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona commits a foul.
11
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high.
9
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Bernede's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was made by Domagoj Bradaric.

CONCLUSION

AC Milan's 1-0 triumph over Hellas Verona exemplified controlled dominance, with the first-half goal proving decisive in a possession-balanced contest. As the stronger team, Milan's market alignment and significant structural deviation highlight their overachievement, while efficiencies held steady without xG to quantify chance creation. Verona's home efforts yielded no rewards, exposing limitations in penetration against a compact defense. Absent red cards or pivotal events, the result reflects Milan's tactical maturity and road resilience, solidifying their position without excess risk or drama.

Hellas Verona vs AC Milan preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.