Heidenheim vs St. Pauli Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAUSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
Heidenheim claimed a 2-0 home win against St. Pauli, taking a 1-0 lead at halftime and adding a second-half goal to secure victory. Despite St. Pauli being rated the stronger team and controlling 55% possession to Heidenheim's 45%, the hosts defended resolutely and converted their opportunities effectively. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments, allowing a straightforward contest. The result marked a significant 59.2% structural deviation favoring Heidenheim, highlighting their outperformance. Market expectations aligned with the outcome, and efficiencies stayed in line with projections. Absent xG data limits analysis of chance quality, but possession disparity underscores Heidenheim's clinical edge and St. Pauli's wastefulness. This upset reinforces Heidenheim's home strength.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Heidenheim's 2-0 victory showed a significant 59.2% deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match assessments.
- xG alignment: xG data was unavailable, preventing assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
- Market alignment: The match result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
- Event impact: No red cards or second-half adjustments created notable event impacts on the game.
- Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to match dynamics.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
F. Zwayer
Other match officials
F. Badstübner
4th Official
Robert Kempter
1st Assistant
Christian Dietz
2nd Assistant


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Heidenheim
St. PauliMovement
Changes since opening
Heidenheim
St. PauliTeam Power Ranking
i
14.36
15.35
Heidenheim
St. PauliForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Heidenheim
St. Pauli

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Heidenheim ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Heidenheim ⚠ Proxy
Heidenheim St. Pauli
Heidenheim St. Pauli
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Heidenheim
Heidenheim St. Pauli


Heidenheim St. Pauli


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- PAU had peak pressure around 39'.
- HDH started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:03:02+00:00
STARTING XI
Heidenheim
St. Pauli























































General Information
Next Match

Heidenheim
vs

FC Bayern München
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 1:30 PM
Venue: Allianz Arena

St. Pauli
vs

FSV Mainz 05
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 1:30 PM
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
HeidenheimManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




St. PauliManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Events
CONCLUSION
Heidenheim vs St. Pauli preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Match Commentary