Hearts vs Falkirk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tynecastle Park Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Hearts Hearts
3 Winner 0
Falkirk Falkirk
Full Time Wed, 13 May 7:00 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase
Blair Spittal - 86'
Cammy Devlin - 34'
Frankie Kent - 29'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Hearts produced a dominant display to defeat Falkirk 3-0 in a one-sided affair. The home side established control early, leading 2-0 at halftime through clinical finishing and sustained pressure. Falkirk, outpossessed 66% to 34%, struggled to gain a foothold, managing few meaningful attacks against a solid Hearts defense. The second half saw Hearts add a third goal, underlining their superiority without facing significant resistance. No red cards marred the contest, allowing the stronger team to dictate proceedings from start to finish. This victory aligned with expectations for Hearts, who capitalized on their quality edge. The performance highlighted effective game management and efficiency, resulting in a clean-sheet win that boosts their standing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hearts recorded a significant 33% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment determination.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned with pre-match market assessment.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments influenced match progression.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Walsh

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Connor

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. McFarlane

2nd Assistant

Scotland

E. Anderson

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.91
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.21
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
VS
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 54 D
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
67.02%
Draw
20.37%
Away Falkirk
12.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hearts
-30.84%
Draw
+18.45%
Falkirk
+12.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.56
59.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Falkirk
Power Score
74.56
59.63
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
127
343

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Falkirk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hearts

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hearts ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Falkirk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hearts Falkirk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hearts Falkirk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hearts
Falkirk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hearts
vs
Falkirk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hearts Falkirk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hearts 0.00
Falkirk 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hearts Falkirk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hearts 0.00
Falkirk 0.00
Hearts
Falkirk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hearts had peak pressure around 35'.
  • Hearts started the game with stronger pressure.
Hearts Pressure Falkirk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hearts reached the top pressure at 35' (81.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts Hearts Home
19 matches
Falkirk Falkirk Away
Match Record
10
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
30
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:31:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Schwolow
Germany
25 A. Schwolow
M. Steinwender
Austria
15 M. Steinwender
F. Kent
England
2 F. Kent
S. Findlay
Scotland
19 S. Findlay
H. Milne
Substitution
Scotland
18 H. Milne
A. Kiziridis
Substitution
Greece
89 A. Kiziridis
B. Baningime
DR Congo
6 B. Baningime
C. Devlin
Substitution
Australia
14 C. Devlin
B. Spittal
Substitution
Scotland
16 B. Spittal
L. Shankland
Scotland
9 L. Shankland
C. Soares Braga
Substitution
Portugal
10 C. Soares Braga
Pitch
N. Hogarth
Scotland
1 N. Hogarth
S. Hart
England
42 S. Hart
L. Henderson
Scotland
5 L. Henderson
C. Donaldson
Scotland
6 C. Donaldson
C. Allan
Scotland
20 C. Allan
D. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
21 D. Tait
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
C. Miller
Substitution
Scotland
29 C. Miller
F. Yeats
Substitution
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
B. Broggio
England
11 B. Broggio
K. Wilson
Substitution
England
22 K. Wilson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tynecastle Park
Capacity :
20099
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
N. Walsh
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane
Euan Anderson

Statistics

Possession
Hearts
63%
Falkirk
37%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 1
59 Dangerous attacks 37
66 Possession 34
5 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 5
20 Dribble Attempts 19
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
48 Throwins 16
3 Goal Kicks 9
1 Assists 0
5 Goal Attempts 1
58 Ball Safe 36
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

140 Attacks 84
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

455 Passes 236
75 Successful Passes Percentage 61
340 Successful Passes 144
81 Long Passes 57
33 Successful Long Passes 15
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
10 Key Passes 4

Defensive

17 Tackles 22
4 Interceptions 11
72 Duels Won 61
1 Saves 1

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 13
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
6 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent Defender
6.8
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
6.73
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne Defender
7.27
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley
Defender46'
6.94
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
7.09
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
6.7
14
Cammy Devlin
Cammy Devlin Midfielder
7.24
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena
Defender67'
6.64
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
6.92
17
Alan Forrest
Alan Forrest
Attacker90+3'
6.57
89
Alexandros Kyziridis
Alexandros Kyziridis Midfielder
7
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota
Attacker83'
6.65
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
7.2
10
Cláudio Braga
Cláudio Braga Attacker
6.98
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore
Attacker83'
6.85
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicky Hogarth
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
6.89
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Defender
6.82
6
Coll Donaldson
Coll Donaldson Defender
6.74
20
Connor Allan
Connor Allan Defender
6.83
42
Sam Hart
Sam Hart Defender
6.61
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
7.06
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
7.02
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
6.62
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright
Midfielder75'
6.57
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
6.73
9
Ross MacIver
Ross MacIver
Attacker46'
6.86
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.97
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker56'
6.64
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson Attacker
6.67
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson
Attacker46'
6.44

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alan Forrest → Blair Spittal
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Blair Spittal
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Sabah Kerjota → Alexandros Kyziridis
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Pierre Landry Kabore → Cláudio Braga
7th Substitution
83'
82'
Event
Liam Henderson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Brad Spencer
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Henry Cartwright → Finn Yeats
6th Substitution
Event
Jordi Altena → Cammy Devlin
5th Substitution
67'
56'
Event
Ethan Ross → Calvin Miller
4th Substitution
52'
Event
Calvin Miller
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Stephen Kingsley → Harry Milne
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ross MacIver → Dylan Tait
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Ben Parkinson → Kyrell Wilson
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Cammy Devlin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
34'
Event
Frankie Kent
Header / 1st Goal
29'
Event
Blair Spittal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'

Match Commentary

75
Substitution Substitution
Henry Cartwright is substituted for Falkirk in the 75th minute.
67
Substitution Substitution
Jordi Altena is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 67th minute.
56
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Ross is substituted for Falkirk in the 56th minute.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Calvin Miller of Falkirk receives a yellow card in the 52nd minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Stephen Kingsley is substituted for Heart of Midlothian in the 45th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Ben Parkinson is substituted for Falkirk in the 45th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Ross Maciver is substituted for Falkirk in the 45th minute.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Cameron Devlin scores for Heart of Midlothian in the 34th minute.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Frankie Kent scores for Heart of Midlothian in the 29th minute.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Blair Spittal of Heart of Midlothian receives a yellow card in the 16th minute.

CONCLUSION

Hearts' 3-0 triumph over Falkirk exemplified their dominance as the stronger outfit, with a 2-0 halftime lead setting the tone. Possession supremacy at 66% translated into controlled possession and precise execution, while Falkirk's 34% share yielded minimal threats. The clean sheet and goal margin reflected superior efficiency without disruptions from red cards or tactical shifts. This result reinforces Hearts' consistency, providing momentum ahead. Falkirk's inability to compete underscores the quality gap, making the scoreline a fair reflection of proceedings.

Hearts vs Falkirk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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