Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
PROfertil ARENA Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Hartberg HTB
2 Winner 4
Sturm Graz STU
Full Time Sun, 10 May 3:00 PM
Round 9 Championship Round
Lukas Fridrikas - 56' (P)
Luca Pazourek - 9'
Goal
|
Goal
Luca Weinhandl - 80'
Otar Kiteishvili - 25'
Benjamin Markus - 14' (Own Goal)
Albert Vallci - 2'

CONTEXT

Sturm Graz secured a convincing 4-2 away victory over Hartberg in this Bundesliga encounter, confirming their status as the stronger team. The match saw Sturm Graz take a commanding 3-1 lead by halftime, with Hartberg responding once in the second half but unable to close the gap despite holding 55% possession to Sturm Graz's 45%. Hartberg's dominance in ball control did not convert into meaningful chances, as Sturm Graz demonstrated superior finishing and defensive resilience. No red cards were issued, and no major second-half adjustments altered the flow. The final score reflected a significant 44.6% structural deviation favoring Sturm Graz, yet the outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations. Sturm Graz's efficiency stayed in line with norms, capitalizing on transitional play to overwhelm Hartberg's backline. This result highlights Sturm Graz's clinical edge in a game defined by early dominance and sustained pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score exhibited a significant 44.6% deviation favoring Sturm Graz.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: No xG data available to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: No notable events impacted the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards eliminated any potential distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Sadikovski

Austria
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Steinacher

1st Assistant

Austria

T. Kaplan

2nd Assistant

Austria

P. Gadler

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.3
Yellow cards / match 3.3
Red cards / match 0.24
Penalties / match 0.29
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 63 L
LASK Linz Rank: 66 L
SK Rapid Rank: 60 W
SK Rapid Rank: 60 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Austria Wien Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 D
LASK Linz Rank: 65 D
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
SK Rapid Rank: 60 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hartberg
20.1%
Draw
24.48%
Away Sturm Graz
55.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hartberg
+19.88%
Draw
+22.56%
Sturm Graz
-42.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.4
68.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
Power Score
59.4
68.85
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
517
233

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hartberg Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hartberg
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hartberg 0.00
Sturm Graz 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hartberg Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hartberg 0.00
Sturm Graz 0.00
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • STU had peak pressure around 30'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
HTB Pressure STU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: STU reached the top pressure at 30' (89.36).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hartberg HTB Home
21 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
4
Wins
12
5
Draws
5
12
Losses
4
Goals
22
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
22
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T14:31:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
T. Hülsmann
Germany
40 T. Hülsmann
L. Pazourek
Austria
2 L. Pazourek
K. Schopp
Substitution
Austria
27 K. Schopp
H. Coulibaly
Spain
6 H. Coulibaly
F. Wilfinger
Austria
18 F. Wilfinger
M. Fillafer
Substitution
Austria
11 M. Fillafer
J. Heil
Austria
28 J. Heil
B. Markuš
Slovenia
4 B. Markuš
T. Kainz
Substitution
Austria
23 T. Kainz
C. Hoffmann
Substitution
Germany
22 C. Hoffmann
L. Fridrikas
Substitution
Austria
30 L. Fridrikas
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
E. Karic
Austria
17 E. Karic
J. Mitchell
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Substitution
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
A. Kayombo
Substitution
France
11 A. Kayombo
R. Fosso
Substitution
Switzerland
80 R. Fosso
O. Kiteishvili
Substitution
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
J. Hödl
Austria
43 J. Hödl
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta
J. Gazibegovic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 J. Gazibegovic

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 9 · Championship Round
Stadium :
PROfertil ARENA
Capacity :
4635
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alain Sadikovski
Robert Steinacher
Thomas Kaplan
Philip Gadler

Statistics

Possession
HTB
51%
STU
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 4
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 10
35 Dangerous attacks 41
55 Possession 45
2 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
4 Goal Kicks 8
20 Throwins 23
16 Dribble Attempts 26
1 Assists 3
5 Successful Dribbles 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
50 Ball Safe 43
6 Goal Attempts 6
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

78 Attacks 101
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

54 Long Passes 60
81 Successful Passes Percentage 78
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
335 Successful Passes 266
416 Passes 341
12 Key Passes 18
25 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

23 Tackles 23
5 Saves 4
47 Duels Won 49
9 Interceptions 8

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 7
11 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

40
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper
6.88
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek Defender
6.79
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
6.68
11
Maximilian Fillafer
Maximilian Fillafer Defender
6.48
95
Damjan Kovacevic
Damjan Kovacevic
Defender46'
6.31
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Defender
7.04
27
Konstantin Schopp
Konstantin Schopp Defender
7
14
Paul Komposch
Paul Komposch
Defender71'
6.95
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Midfielder
6.77
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz Midfielder
6.9
19
Lukas Spendlhofer
Lukas Spendlhofer
Defender71'
7.07
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Midfielder
6.85
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann Attacker
6.59
77
David Korherr
David Korherr
Attacker71'
6.58
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas Attacker
6.65
17
Jonas Karner
Jonas Karner
Midfielder79'
6.83
Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
7.05
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.02
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.12
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Defender
6.94
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
6.99
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller
Defender59'
6.86
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
7.33
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder85'
6.8
11
Axel Kayombo
Axel Kayombo Midfielder
6.54
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl
Midfielder59'
6.81
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.55
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
6.65
25
Stefan Hierländer
Stefan Hierländer
Midfielder85'
6.52
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.62
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone
Attacker63'
6.75
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Attacker
6.93

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Paul Komposch
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
6th Yellowcard
85'
85'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Otar Kiteishvili
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Stefan Hierländer → Ryan Fosso
9th Substitution
82'
Event
5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Luca Weinhandl
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jonas Karner → Lukas Fridrikas
8th Substitution
79'
Event
David Korherr → Marco Hoffmann
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Paul Komposch → Konstantin Schopp
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Lukas Spendlhofer → Tobias Kainz
7th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Luca Weinhandl
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Maurice Malone → Seedy Jatta
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Luca Weinhandl → Axel Kayombo
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Paul Koller → Jon Gorenc Stankovic
2nd Substitution
Event
Lukas Fridrikas
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
56'
51'
Event
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Damjan Kovacevic → Maximilian Fillafer
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Konstantin Schopp
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
25'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Header / 3rd Goal
14'
Event
Benjamin Markus
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Luca Pazourek
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
9'
2'
Event
Albert Vallci
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jonas Karner takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Korherr takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Korherr takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jusuf Gazibegovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Spendlhofer's right-footed shot is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Gizo Mamageishvili takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Gizo Mamageishvili replaces Otar Kiteishvili.
85
Update Update
Stefan Hierlander replaces Ryan Fosso.
80
Attempt Attempt
Luca Weinhandl takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Luca Weinhandl takes a right-footed shot and scores.
79
Update Update
Jonas Karner comes on for Lukas Fridrikas.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell's header is saved.
72
Substitution Substitution
Paul Komposch is substituted for Konstantin Schopp.
72
Update Update
David Korherr is on, and Marco Hoffmann is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Hodl takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Lukas Spendlhofer is on, and Tobias Kainz is off.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jusuf Gazibegovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fridrikas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Jusuf Gazibegovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Update Update
Maurice Malone is on, and Seedy Jatta is off.
59
Update Update
Paul Koller replaces Jon Gorenc Stankovic.
59
Update Update
Luca Weinhandl replaces Axel Kayombo.
56
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fridrikas scores with a right-footed shot.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Lukas Fridrikas scores, making it 2 penalties for the team and 3 for the opponents.
53
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fridrikas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fridrikas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Axel Kayombo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Konstantin Schopp takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
48
Attempt Attempt
Marco Hoffmann takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Damjan Kovacevic comes on for Maximilian Fillafer.
44
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Otar Kiteishvili takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta's right-footed shot is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Marco Hoffmann takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Seedy Jatta's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Fosso takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jeyland Mitchell takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci's header is saved.
25
Update Update
Otar Kiteishvili scores with a header.
22
Update Update
Axel Kayombo's header is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Fridrikas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Benjamin Markus makes it 1-2.
12
Attempt Attempt
Jurgen Heil's left-footed shot is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pazourek takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
6
Attempt Attempt
Albert Vallci attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Albert Vallci with a header results in a goal.

CONCLUSION

Sturm Graz's 4-2 triumph over Hartberg validated their pre-designated strength, building a 3-1 halftime lead and maintaining control despite Hartberg's 55% possession. The visitors' efficiency in transitions exposed Hartberg's defensive vulnerabilities, leading to a significant 44.6% structural deviation in their favor. Market alignment held true, with no disruptions from red cards or adjustments. Hartberg's failure to capitalize on possession underscores conversion issues, while Sturm Graz's performance reinforced their dominance. This outcome positions Sturm Graz favorably in the standings, prompting Hartberg to refine attacking output and solidity.

Hartberg vs Sturm Graz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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