Hartberg vs SK Rapid Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria

PROfertil ARENA Sun, 19 Apr - 12:30 PM

Admiral Bundesliga

Hartberg HTB

2 – 2

SK Rapid SCR

Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 12:30 PM

Round 5 Championship Round

Luca Pazourek - 52'

Lukas Spendlhofer - 45'

Petter Nosa Dahl - 67'

Bendegúz Bolla - 47'

CONTEXT

Hartberg secured a remarkable 2-2 draw against stronger SK Rapid in the Austrian Bundesliga, leading 1-0 at halftime despite just 32% possession. The home team's clinical first-half finishing set the tone, but two red cards in the second half drastically shifted momentum. SK Rapid, with 68% possession, equalized but failed to capitalize fully on their numerical advantage. This outcome showed moderate structural deviation of 9.1% towards SK Rapid, efficiency in line with expectations, and alignment with pre-match market views. Red card distortion dominated the second half, preventing a decisive result despite the visitors' control.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Moderate 9.1% deviation aligned with SK Rapid.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Outcome aligned with market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
Event impact: Two red cards to Hartberg altered second-half dynamics.
Red card distortion: Red cards caused significant second-half distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

J. Weinberger

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Pichler

1st Assistant

S. Gruber

2nd Assistant

A. Harkam

4th Official

M. Schmid

J. Hoff Thorup

1.44

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.35

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

8 - 5 - 9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Hartberg

3.6%

Draw

90.89%

SK Rapid

5.51%

Movement

Changes since opening

Hartberg

-0.46%

Draw

+1.17%

SK Rapid

-0.71%

Team Power Ranking

20.07

25.75

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Hartberg

SK Rapid

Power Score

20.07

25.75

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score

SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hartberg SK Rapid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy SK Rapid

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

32.97

32.94

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

32.94

32.97

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Hartberg +0.00 Efficiency Index

SK Rapid 0.00 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Hartberg

SK Rapid

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy SK Rapid

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Hartberg SK Rapid

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Hartberg SK Rapid

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Hartberg

SK Rapid

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Hartberg

SK Rapid

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Hartberg SK Rapid

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Hartberg SK Rapid

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Hartberg

SK Rapid

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

SCR had peak pressure around 69'.
SCR started the game with stronger pressure.

HTB Pressure SCR Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: SCR reached the top pressure at 69' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hartberg HTB Home

22 matches

SK Rapid SCR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-6

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:03:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

40 T. Hülsmann

28 J. Heil

27 K. Schopp

19 L. Spendlhofer

6 H. Coulibaly

2 L. Pazourek

22 C. Hoffmann

18 F. Wilfinger

4 B. Markuš

7 E. Havel

30 L. Fridrikas

1 N. Hedl

6 S. Raux Yao

55 N. Cvetković

4 J. Schöller

20 K. Ahoussou

18 M. Seidl

29 A. Romeo

77 B. Bolla

15 N. Wurmbrand

26 A. Weimann

9 E. Kara

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 19, 2026, 12:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 5 · Championship Round

Stadium :

PROfertil ARENA

Capacity :

4635

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Julian Weinberger

Stefan Pichler

Sebastian Gruber

Alexander Harkam

Statistics

Possession

HTB

35%

SCR

65%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 2

4 Shots 9

31 Dangerous attacks 68

32 Possession 68

4 Corners 4

10 Free kicks 14

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

3 Successful Dribbles 9

4 Goal Attempts 10

14 Throwins 19

6 Dribble Attempts 15

64 Ball Safe 61

10 Goal Kicks 5

4 Substitutions 4

0 Assists 1

Attacking

38 Attacks 144

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

7 Key Passes 14

210 Successful Passes 521

18 Successful Long Passes 18

52 Long Passes 29

275 Passes 571

76 Successful Passes Percentage 91

35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62

Defensive

34 Duels Won 39

14 Tackles 6

2 Saves 2

10 Interceptions 7

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 37

2 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

14 Fouls 10

1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Julian Weinberger

Manager ▼

M. Schmid Coach

Starting XI ▼

Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper

6.91

Luca Pazourek Defender

6.79

Maximilian Hennig

Defender77'

6.61

Habib Coulibaly Defender

6.71

Lukas Spendlhofer Defender

7.1

Konstantin Schopp Defender

7.03

Jürgen Heil Defender

6.82

Benjamin Markus Midfielder

6.79

Elias Havel Midfielder

6.74

David Korherr

Attacker90+1'

6.6

Fabian Wilfinger Midfielder

7.03

Marco Hoffmann Midfielder

6.61

Musibau Aziz

Attacker77'

6.62

Lukas Fridrikas Attacker

6.66

Youba Diarra

Midfielder64'

6.89

Substitutes ▼

Youba Diarra

Midfielder64'

6.89

Musibau Aziz

Attacker77'

6.62

Maximilian Hennig

Defender77'

6.61

David Korherr

Attacker90+1'

6.6

Bench ▼

Ammar Helac Goalkeeper

Julian Gölles Defender

6.44

Emmanuel Ojukwu Defender

Damjan Kovacevic Defender

6.37

Julian Halwachs Midfielder

6.48

Referee : Julian Weinberger