Hammarby vs Mjällby Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Tele2 Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Hammarby HAM
3 Winner 0
Mjällby Mjällby
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Paulos Abraham - 48', 44', 42'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Hammarby securing a decisive 3-0 victory over Mjällby. The home side set the tone early, building a comfortable 2-0 lead by half-time and never looking back. Pre-match market expectations gave Hammarby a 48% chance of winning, alongside a 26.7% probability for a draw and a 25.3% chance for a Mjällby win. Because the home side claimed the victory, the final outcome aligned exactly with the pre-match market. However, Hammarby delivered a significant performance deviation of 52%, drastically outperforming standard match expectations against a Mjällby squad classified as the historically stronger team. On the pitch, Hammarby edged the tempo slightly, holding 53% possession compared to Mjällby's 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final score was entirely consistent with the underlying chance creation. Nonetheless, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with general performance trends. Furthermore, the match flowed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hammarby showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Karlsson

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Söderkvist

1st Assistant

S. Robertsson

2nd Assistant

E. Mattsson

4th Official

Hammarby K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
VS
Mjällby Karl Marius Aksum
Karl Marius Aksum
2.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elfsborg Rank: 55 W
Degerfors Rank: 45 D
Malmö FF Rank: 63 W
AIK Rank: 58 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 58 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Häcken Rank: 57 W
Värnamo Rank: 43 W
Norrköping Rank: 46 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 58 W
Elfsborg Rank: 55 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hammarby
47.97%
Draw
26.73%
Away Mjällby
25.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.16
69.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hammarby
Mjällby
Power Score
69.16
69.96
League Position
1
15
Global Rank
211
187

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hammarby — Opponent-weighted form score
Mjällby — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hammarby Mjällby

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hammarby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mjällby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hammarby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mjällby
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.64
31.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.28
32.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hammarby +0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Mjällby -0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hammarby
Mjällby
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hammarby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mjällby
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hammarby Mjällby
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hammarby Mjällby
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hammarby
Mjällby
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hammarby
vs
Mjällby
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hammarby Mjällby
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hammarby 0.33
Mjällby 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hammarby Mjällby
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hammarby 0.00
Mjällby 0.07
Hammarby
Mjällby
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hammarby HAM Home
12 matches
Mjällby Mjällby Away
Match Record
6
Wins
5
1
Draws
1
5
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
20
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
W. Hahn
Suriname
1 W. Hahn
E. Skoglund
Sweden
2 E. Skoglund
I. Breze Fofana
Guinea
6 I. Breze Fofana
V. Eriksson
Sweden
4 V. Eriksson
F. Winther
Denmark
3 F. Winther
M. Karlsson
Sweden
8 M. Karlsson
O. Johansson
Substitution
Sweden
11 O. Johansson
M. Madjed
Substitution
Sweden
26 M. Madjed
N. Besara
Substitution
Sweden
20 N. Besara
V. Lind
Substitution
Denmark
9 V. Lind
P. Abraham
Substitution
Sweden
7 P. Abraham
Pitch
R. Wallinder
Sweden
13 R. Wallinder
T. Pettersson
Substitution
Sweden
24 T. Pettersson
A. Norén
Sweden
4 A. Norén
A. Iqbal
Pakistan
5 A. Iqbal
E. Stroud
Sweden
17 E. Stroud
J. Gustavsson
Sweden
22 J. Gustavsson
V. Gustafsson
Substitution
Sweden
7 V. Gustafsson
T. Stavitski
Substitution
Finland
11 T. Stavitski
A. Manneh
19 A. Manneh
J. Bergström
Substitution
Sweden
18 J. Bergström
L. Malachowski Thorell
Substitution
Sweden
6 L. Malachowski Thorell

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Tele2 Arena
Capacity :
32000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kristoffer Karlsson
Andreas Söderkvist
Sebastian Robertsson
Erik Mattsson

Statistics

Possession
HAM
53%
Mjällby
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
15 Shots 13
46 Dangerous attacks 34
53 Possession 47
2 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
11 Throwins 12
18 Dribble Attempts 13
11 Successful Dribbles 8
79 Ball Safe 87
8 Goal Kicks 11
13 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0

Attacking

105 Attacks 70

Possession

29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
517 Passes 449
14 Successful Long Passes 22
448 Successful Passes 360
48 Long Passes 59
12 Key Passes 10

Defensive

18 Tackles 24
60 Duels Won 59
7 Saves 2
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 1
10 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

17 Fouls 16
6 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

1
Warner Hahn
Warner Hahn Goalkeeper
2
Hampus Skoglund
Hampus Skoglund Defender
3
Frederik Winther
Frederik Winther Defender
4
Victor Eriksson
Victor Eriksson Defender
6
Ibrahima Fofana
Ibrahima Fofana Defender
8
Markus Karlsson
Markus Karlsson Midfielder
9
Victor Lind
Victor Lind Midfielder
16
Noah Persson
Noah Persson
Defender66'
11
Oscar Johansson Schellhas
Oscar Johansson Schellhas Midfielder
28
Frank Junior Adjei
Frank Junior Adjei
Midfielder79'
20
Nahir Besara
Nahir Besara Midfielder
21
Sourou Koné
Sourou Koné
Midfielder90'
26
Montader Madjed
Montader Madjed Midfielder
31
Oscar Steinke Brånby
Oscar Steinke Brånby
Defender79'
7
Paulos Abraham
Paulos Abraham Attacker
3
29
Elohim Kaboré
Elohim Kaboré
Attacker90'
Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

13
Robin Wallinder
Robin Wallinder Goalkeeper
4
Axel Norén
Axel Norén Defender
5
Abdullah Iqbal
Abdullah Iqbal Defender
24
Tom Pettersson
Tom Pettersson Defender
33
Tony Miettinen
Tony Miettinen
Defender77'
7
Viktor Gustafson
Viktor Gustafson Midfielder
39
Romeo Leandersson
Romeo Leandersson
Midfielder71'
11
Timo Stavitski
Timo Stavitski Midfielder
14
Villiam Granath
Villiam Granath
Midfielder46'
17
Elliot Stroud
Elliot Stroud Midfielder
22
Jesper Gustavsson
Jesper Gustavsson Midfielder
6
Ludwig Malachowski Thorell
Ludwig Malachowski Thorell Attacker
23
Á. Samuelsen
Á. Samuelsen
Attacker46'
18
Jacob Bergström
Jacob Bergström Attacker
15
Bork Bang-Kittilsen
Bork Bang-Kittilsen
Attacker79'
19
Abdoulie Manneh
Abdoulie Manneh Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sourou Koné → Nahir Besara
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Elohim Kaboré → Paulos Abraham
9th Substitution
90'
89'
Event
Tony Miettinen
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Oscar Steinke Brånby → Montader Madjed
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Frank Junior Adjei → Oscar Johansson Schellhas
6th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Á. Samuelsen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Bork Bang-Kittilsen → Jacob Bergström
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Tony Miettinen → Tom Pettersson
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Romeo Leandersson → Viktor Gustafson
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Viktor Gustafson
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Noah Persson → Victor Lind
3rd Substitution
66'
63'
Event
Axel Norén
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Paulos Abraham
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
46'
Event
Villiam Granath → Timo Stavitski
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Á. Samuelsen → Ludwig Malachowski Thorell
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Paulos Abraham
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
44'
Event
Paulos Abraham
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
Event
Nahir Besara
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Oscar Johansson Schellhas
1st Yellowcard
27'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hammarby exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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