HamKam vs Vålerenga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Briskeby Arena Fri, 8 May - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
HamKam HamKam
1 Winner 0
Vålerenga Vålerenga
Full Time Fri, 8 May 5:00 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
Henrik Udahl - 7'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

HamKam clinched a 1-0 win against Vålerenga, scoring the decisive goal in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite controlling only 36% possession compared to Vålerenga's 64%, HamKam demonstrated superior defensive organization and efficiency in transitions. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play with full squads throughout. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, HamKam's victory featured minimal structural deviation of 5.3%, aligning closely with expectations. Efficiency metrics stayed in line, and the outcome matched market alignments without notable second-half adjustments. This result highlights HamKam's ability to capitalize on limited opportunities while neutralizing Vålerenga's dominance in ball control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.3% favoring HamKam.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments significantly impacted proceedings.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Sinnes

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Valstadsve

1st Assistant

Norway

A. Jaeger

2nd Assistant

Norway

H. Pedersen Bue

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.45
Yellow cards / match 3.14
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.25
HamKam T. Myhre
T. Myhre
VS
Vålerenga P. Myhre
P. Myhre
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kristiansund Rank: 56 D
Start Rank: 49 W
KFUM Rank: 56 W
Molde Rank: 67 L
Brann Rank: 69 L
Viking Rank: 79 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
KFUM Rank: 56 D
Molde Rank: 64 L
Lillestrøm Rank: 54 L
Fredrikstad Rank: 61 D
Viking Rank: 79 L
Rosenborg Rank: 62 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 6 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home HamKam
94.72%
Draw
5.09%
Away Vålerenga
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
HamKam
+1.35%
Draw
-1.32%
Vålerenga
-0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.33
58.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
HamKam
Vålerenga
Power Score
60.33
58.74
League Position
6
11
Global Rank
476
532

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
HamKam — Opponent-weighted form score
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) HamKam Vålerenga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

HamKam

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

HamKam ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.36
34.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.92
22.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
HamKam -1.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Vålerenga +1.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
HamKam
Vålerenga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

HamKam ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
HamKam Vålerenga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
HamKam Vålerenga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
HamKam
Vålerenga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
HamKam
vs
Vålerenga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
HamKam Vålerenga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
HamKam 0.15
Vålerenga 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
HamKam Vålerenga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
HamKam 0.00
Vålerenga 0.02
HamKam
Vålerenga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vålerenga had peak pressure around 85'.
  • HamKam started the game with stronger pressure.
HamKam Pressure Vålerenga Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vålerenga reached the top pressure at 85' (91.08).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

HamKam HamKam Home
12 matches
Vålerenga Vålerenga Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
6
Draws
6
4
Losses
2
Goals
11
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
11
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:01:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
M. Sandberg
Sweden
12 M. Sandberg
I. Hoffmann
Substitution
United States
24 I. Hoffmann
M. Gjone
Norway
2 M. Gjone
F. Sjølstad
Substitution
Norway
23 F. Sjølstad
E. Amundsen-Day
Norway
3 E. Amundsen-Day
A. Ekeroth
Substitution
Sweden
5 A. Ekeroth
P. Metcalfe
Canada
26 P. Metcalfe
A. Trondsen
Substitution
Norway
16 A. Trondsen
A. Baran Potur
Substitution
Norway
17 A. Baran Potur
M. Alassane Niang
29 M. Alassane Niang
H. Udahl
Norway
19 H. Udahl
Pitch
O. Hedvall
Denmark
1 O. Hedvall
K. Finnsson
Iceland
2 K. Finnsson
I. Näsberg
Norway
37 I. Näsberg
A. Olsen
Substitution
Norway
4 A. Olsen
V. Eggen Hedenstad
Substitution
Norway
6 V. Eggen Hedenstad
F. Thorvaldsen
Norway
26 F. Thorvaldsen
C. Lange
Denmark
10 C. Lange
M. Westergaard
Substitution
Denmark
28 M. Westergaard
L. Janus Ravn-Haren
Substitution
Denmark
77 L. Janus Ravn-Haren
M. Grundetjern
Norway
17 M. Grundetjern
H. Bjørdal
Substitution
Norway
8 H. Bjørdal

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Briskeby Arena
Capacity :
8068
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Svein Tore Sinnes
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Aleksander Jaeger
Haakon Arve Pedersen Bue

Statistics

Possession
HamKam
40%
Vålerenga
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 9
41 Dangerous attacks 87
36 Possession 64
1 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

12 Goal Kicks 4
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
18 Throwins 25
4 Successful Dribbles 2
5 Substitutions 5
11 Dribble Attempts 10
6 Goal Attempts 8
96 Ball Safe 76
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

83 Attacks 141
4 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 83
350 Passes 621
264 Successful Passes 518
77 Long Passes 43
30 Successful Long Passes 18
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
5 Key Passes 15

Defensive

51 Duels Won 34
2 Saves 2
13 Tackles 12
15 Interceptions 3

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 30
4 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

10 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

12
M. Sandberg
M. Sandberg Goalkeeper
2
Martin Gjone
Martin Gjone Defender
3
Ethan Amundsen Day
Ethan Amundsen Day Defender
5
A. Ekeroth
A. Ekeroth Defender
7
V. Jónsson
V. Jónsson
Midfielder26'
23
F. Sjølstad
F. Sjølstad Defender
15
Ilir Kukleci
Ilir Kukleci
Defender82'
24
I. Hoffmann
I. Hoffmann Defender
22
S. Strand Nilsen
S. Strand Nilsen
Defender82'
16
Anders Trondsen
Anders Trondsen Midfielder
10
Loris Mettler
Loris Mettler
Midfielder46'
17
A. Potur
A. Potur Midfielder
8
M. Johnsgård
M. Johnsgård
Midfielder68'
26
Patrick Metcalfe
Patrick Metcalfe Midfielder
19
Henrik Udahl
Henrik Udahl Attacker
29
M. Alassane Niang
M. Alassane Niang Attacker
Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
5
Kevin Tshiembe
Kevin Tshiembe
Defender86'
6
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad Defender
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder65'
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
26
Filip Thorvaldsen
Filip Thorvaldsen Midfielder
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
29
Fidel Brice Ambina
Fidel Brice Ambina
Midfielder75'
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren Midfielder
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen
Attacker65'
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal Attacker
15
Odin Holm
Odin Holm
Midfielder75'
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Kevin Tshiembe → Aaron Kiil Olsen
10th Substitution
Event
Ilir Kukleci → F. Sjølstad
8th Substitution
82'
Event
S. Strand Nilsen → I. Hoffmann
9th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Fidel Brice Ambina → Magnus Westergaard
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Odin Holm → Henrik Bjørdal
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Henrik Bjørdal
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
M. Johnsgård → A. Potur
5th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Elias Sørensen → Lucas Haren
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Petter Strand → Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
4th Substitution
50'
Event
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Loris Mettler → Anders Trondsen
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Magnus Westergaard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
V. Jónsson → A. Ekeroth
1st Substitution
26'
Event
Henrik Udahl
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
7'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: HamKam exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

HamKam vs Vålerenga preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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