Hamburger SV vs FC Köln Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volksparkstadion Sat, 14 Mar - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV HSV
1 – 1
FC Köln KOE
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:30 PM
Fábio Vieira - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Said El Mala - 45'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Hamburger SV 1–0 FC Köln. The result saw Hamburger SV take the points. Hamburger SV showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hamburger SV showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Welz

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Burda

4th Official

M. Thomsen

1st Assistant

T. Stein

2nd Assistant

Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
VS
FC Köln L. Kwasniok
L. Kwasniok
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.77
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 85 L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 79 D
FC Union Berlin Rank: 76 W
Heidenheim Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 D
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 87 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 85 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 76 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 3 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hamburger SV
42.88%
Draw
26.77%
Away FC Köln
30.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.77
61.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hamburger SV
FC Köln
Power Score
63.77
61.56
League Position
11
14
Global Rank
80
116

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Köln — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hamburger SV FC Köln

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hamburger SV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Köln

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hamburger SV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Köln
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.89
22.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.55
14.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hamburger SV -0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Köln +0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hamburger SV
FC Köln
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hamburger SV
vs
FC Köln
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hamburger SV FC Köln
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hamburger SV FC Köln
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hamburger SV
FC Köln
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hamburger SV HSV Home
1 matches
FC Köln KOE Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:32:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Heuer Fernandes
Portugal
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
W. Omari
France
17 W. Omari
L. Vušković
Croatia
44 L. Vušković
J. Torunarigha
Substitution
Nigeria
25 J. Torunarigha
W. Mikelbrencis
Substitution
France
2 W. Mikelbrencis
N. Remberg
Germany
21 N. Remberg
A. Sambi Lokonga
Belgium
6 A. Sambi Lokonga
M. Muheim
Switzerland
28 (C) M. Muheim
F. Ferreira Vieira
Substitution
Portugal
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
R. Königsdörffer
Substitution
Ghana
11 R. Königsdörffer
D. Downs
Substitution
Germany
19 D. Downs
Pitch
M. Schwäbe
Germany
1 (C) M. Schwäbe
K. Hansen
Denmark
32 K. Hansen
C. Özkacar
Turkey
39 C. Özkacar
R. van den Berg
Netherlands
33 R. van den Berg
T. Krauß
Substitution
Germany
5 T. Krauß
E. Martel
Germany
6 E. Martel
Í. Jóhannesson
Iceland
18 Í. Jóhannesson
S. El Mala
Substitution
Germany
13 S. El Mala
J. Kamiński
Substitution
Poland
16 J. Kamiński
Y. Niang
Substitution
Germany
38 Y. Niang
R. Ache
Substitution
Germany
9 R. Ache

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium :
Volksparkstadion
Capacity :
57000
Attendance :
57000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Tobias Welz
Max Burda
Martin Thomsen
Thomas Stein

Statistics

Possession
HSV
47%
KOE
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 7
34 Dangerous attacks 48
45 Possession 55
1 Corners 8
12 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 13
1 Assists 1
4 Goal Kicks 2
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
64 Ball Safe 65
1 Injuries 1
8 Successful Dribbles 1
27 Throwins 28
2 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
13 Dribble Attempts 4

Attacking

96 Attacks 87
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

50 Long Passes 56
302 Successful Passes 375
375 Passes 458
4 Key Passes 8
20 Successful Long Passes 21
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
81 Successful Passes Percentage 82

Defensive

14 Tackles 18
1 Saves 0
11 Interceptions 3

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6
18 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Tobias Welz

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
6.45
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
7.14
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
7.07
8
Daniel Elfadli
Daniel Elfadli
Midfielder79'
6.49
44
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic Defender
7.16
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Midfielder
6.96
45
Fabio Baldé
Fabio Baldé
Attacker79'
6.72
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
6.4
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
6.74
28
Miro Muheim
Miro Muheim (C) Midfielder
6.85
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
6.53
7
Jean-Luc Dompé
Jean-Luc Dompé
Attacker67'
6.77
19
Damion Downs
Damion Downs Attacker
6.49
49
Otto Stange
Otto Stange
Attacker67'
6.66
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Attacker
6.84
27
Philip Otele
Philip Otele
Attacker90+2'
Referee : Tobias Welz

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe (C) Goalkeeper
6.32
5
Tom Krauß
Tom Krauß Defender
6.43
27
Felipe Chavez
Felipe Chavez
Midfielder84'
6.64
32
Kristoffer Lund
Kristoffer Lund Defender
6.69
33
Rav van den Berg
Rav van den Berg Defender
7.12
39
Cenk Özkacar
Cenk Özkacar Defender
6.82
6
Eric Martel
Eric Martel Midfielder
7.12
13
Said El Mala
Said El Mala Midfielder
6.84
28
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Defender74'
6.45
16
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński Midfielder
6.85
11
Florian Kainz
Florian Kainz
Midfielder90+1'
6.46
18
Ísak Jóhannesson
Ísak Jóhannesson Midfielder
6.85
38
Youssoupha Niang
Youssoupha Niang Midfielder
6.59
37
Linton Maina
Linton Maina
Midfielder46'
6.4
9
Ragnar Ache
Ragnar Ache Attacker
6.59
30
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter
Attacker74'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Sebastian Sebulonsen
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Miro Muheim
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Philip Otele → Fábio Vieira
10th Substitution
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Florian Kainz → Jakub Kamiński
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Felipe Chavez → Tom Krauß
8th Substitution
Event
Daniel Elfadli → Jordan Torunarigha
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Fabio Baldé → William Mikelbrencis
6th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Jakub Kamiński
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Sebastian Sebulonsen → Said El Mala
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Marius Bülter → Ragnar Ache
4th Substitution
Event
Jean-Luc Dompé → Ransford Königsdörffer
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Otto Stange → Damion Downs
3rd Substitution
67'
46'
Event
Linton Maina → Youssoupha Niang
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Said El Mala
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Nicolai Remberg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Fábio Vieira
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
39'
36'
Event
Kristoffer Lund
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
Event
7th Yellowcard
32'
Event
Said El Mala
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Linton Maina from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Daniel Elfadli of Hamburger SV had a header from close range within the six-yard box on the left side, but he failed to convert. The assist came from Jean-Luc Dompé, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Philip Otele replaces Fábio Vieira.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be six minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Florian Kainz replaces Jakub Kaminski.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Hamburger SV after Rav van den Berg allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt was thwarted. Otto Stange from Hamburger SV took a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side. The assist came from Jean-Luc Dompé.
90
Update Update
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sebastian Sebulonsen from 1. FC Köln has been shown a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miro Muheim of Hamburger SV has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Eric Martel of 1. FC Köln attempted a header from within the six-yard box, aiming for the left side, but it narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson.
90
Update Update
Fabio Baldé from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Linton Maina from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded, and the match ends in a draw: Hamburger SV 1, 1. FC Köln 1.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Jakub Kaminski of 1. FC Köln.
88
Update Update
Warmed Omari of Hamburger SV earned a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Linton Maina from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Linton Maina from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Felipe Chávez comes on to replace Tom Krauß, who has sustained an injury.
84
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
83
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Tom Krauß from 1. FC Köln.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Daniel Elfadli comes on to replace Jordan Torunarigha.
79
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Fabio Baldé is coming on to replace William Mikelbrencis due to an injury.
78
Update Update
Match has been paused due to an injury to William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV.
76
Update Update
William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jakub Kaminski of 1. FC Köln has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
76
Update Update
Fouled by Jakub Kaminski of 1. FC Köln.
75
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Sebastian Sebulonsen is coming on to replace Saïd El Mala.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Marius Bülter comes on to replace Ragnar Ache.
73
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Jordan Torunarigha from Hamburger SV.
72
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
70
Update Update
William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
70
Update Update
Otto Stange from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Otto Stange replaces Damion Downs.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Jean-Luc Dompé comes on to replace Ransford Königsdörffer.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Ragnar Ache of 1. FC Köln fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The setup came from Linton Maina.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Jordan Torunarigha allowed the ball to go out.
59
Update Update
Tom Krauß from 1. FC Köln was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Luka Vuskovic allowed the ball to go out.
56
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
55
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV.
54
Update Update
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln earned a free kick in an offensive position.
54
Attempt Attempt
Linton Maina from 1. FC Köln had a great opportunity but his right-footed shot from the center of the box went over the bar and to the right.
54
Update Update
Warmed Omari of Hamburger SV committed a foul.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Fábio Vieira allowed the ball to go out.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Krauß of 1. FC Köln.
50
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
46
Update Update
Cenk Özkacar from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
45
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
45
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Rav van den Berg of 1. FC Köln attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The chance was set up by Jakub Kaminski, who delivered a cross following a corner.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Hamburger SV 1, 1. FC Köln 1.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a deflection off Daniel Heuer Fernandes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Linton Maina comes on to replace Youssoupha Niang.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Köln: Linton Maina comes on to replace Youssoupha Niang.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hamburger SV 1, 1. FC Köln 1. Saïd El Mala scores for 1. FC Köln with a header from the right side of the six-yard box, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist came from Rav van den Berg following a corner kick.
44
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson from 1. FC Köln takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Daniel Heuer Fernandes from Hamburger SV makes a fantastic save, diving to the top left corner. The assist for this attempt came from Jakub Kaminski.
41
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolai Remberg of Hamburger SV has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hamburger SV takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against 1. FC Köln. Fábio Vieira scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, finding the bottom left corner of the net. The assist comes from William Mikelbrencis.
36
Update Update
William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick on the right flank.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Update Update
Kristoffer Lund from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Jordan Torunarigha allowed the ball to go out.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saïd El Mala of 1. FC Köln has been shown a yellow card.
31
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after Warmed Omari allowed the ball to go out of play.
29
Update Update
Saïd El Mala from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
28
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jakub Kaminski from 1. FC Köln takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after William Mikelbrencis allowed the ball to go out.
27
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Youssoupha Niang from 1. FC Köln attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it went wide.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Köln after a defensive play by Jordan Torunarigha.
26
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Saïd El Mala of 1. FC Köln takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Cenk Özkacar.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Albert Sambi Lokonga - Hamburger SV.
23
Update Update
Eric Martel from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Update Update
Ragnar Ache from 1. FC Köln has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
20
Update Update
Ragnar Ache from 1. FC Köln earned a free kick in an offensive position.
17
Update Update
Ragnar Ache from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Match interruption - Hamburger SV.
16
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
14
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV commits a handball foul.
13
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
13
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
12
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Miro Muheim, who delivered a cross.
10
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV earned a free kick in an offensive position.
10
Update Update
Cenk Özkacar from 1. FC Köln committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Saïd El Mala of 1. FC Köln earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
8
Update Update
Warmed Omari from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hamburger SV exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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