Hamburger SV vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volksparkstadion Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV HSV
1 – 1
FC Augsburg FCA
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Ransford Königsdörffer - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Arthur Chaves - 22'
Miro Muheim 64' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg has officially finished, ending in a hard-fought 1-1 draw. FC Augsburg initially took control, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, but the hosts managed to find an equalizer in the second half to secure a share of the points. This final outcome was not aligned with pre-match market expectations. Before kickoff, Hamburger SV held a 39.1% probability of winning, compared to a 27.5% chance for a draw and a 33.4% chance for an Augsburg victory. The draw resulted in a significant deviation from these initial forecasts, specifically featuring FC Augsburg as the deviation team. On the pitch, Hamburger SV controlled 53% of the possession compared to Augsburg's 47%. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to assess whether the scoreline aligned with actual chance creation, the match's dynamics were heavily influenced by discipline. A red card shown to a Hamburger SV player created a notable red card distortion in the second half. Despite the hosts playing with a numerical disadvantage, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained completely in line with standard baselines.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Augsburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Aytekin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Beitinger

1st Assistant

M. Stegemann

2nd Assistant

F. Bickel

4th Official

Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
VS
FC Augsburg M. Baum
M. Baum
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
FC Köln Rank: 74 D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 L
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
FC Köln Rank: 74 W
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Heidenheim Rank: 70 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hamburger SV
39.14%
Draw
27.48%
Away FC Augsburg
33.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.95
75.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
Power Score
63.95
75.47
League Position
11
10
Global Rank
81
97

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Augsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hamburger SV FC Augsburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hamburger SV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Augsburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hamburger SV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.21
43.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.62
38.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hamburger SV -0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Augsburg +0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hamburger SV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Augsburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hamburger SV FC Augsburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hamburger SV FC Augsburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hamburger SV
vs
FC Augsburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hamburger SV FC Augsburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hamburger SV 0.40
FC Augsburg 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hamburger SV FC Augsburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hamburger SV 0.02
FC Augsburg 0.02
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hamburger SV HSV Home
15 matches
FC Augsburg FCA Away
Match Record
5
Wins
9
1
Draws
1
9
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
13
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Heuer Fernandes
Portugal
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
W. Omari
France
17 W. Omari
L. Vušković
Croatia
44 L. Vušković
J. Torunarigha
Nigeria
25 J. Torunarigha
W. Mikelbrencis
France
2 W. Mikelbrencis
A. Sambi Lokonga
Belgium
6 A. Sambi Lokonga
F. Ferreira Vieira
Portugal
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
M. Muheim
Switzerland
28 M. Muheim
R. Königsdörffer
Substitution
Ghana
11 R. Königsdörffer
P. Otele
Substitution
Nigeria
27 P. Otele
R. Glatzel
Substitution
Germany
9 R. Glatzel
Pitch
F. Dahmen
Germany
1 F. Dahmen
C. Zesiger
Switzerland
16 C. Zesiger
K. Schlotterbeck
Germany
31 K. Schlotterbeck
A. Largura Chaves
Brazil
34 A. Largura Chaves
D. Giannoulis
Greece
13 D. Giannoulis
F. Rieder
Switzerland
32 F. Rieder
R. Fellhauer
Substitution
Germany
19 R. Fellhauer
M. Wolf
Germany
27 M. Wolf
A. Claude Maurice
Substitution
France
20 A. Claude Maurice
A. Kade
Substitution
Germany
30 A. Kade
M. Gregoritsch
Austria
38 M. Gregoritsch

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Volksparkstadion
Capacity :
57000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Deniz Aytekin
Eduard Beitinger
Mitja Stegemann
Felix Bickel

Statistics

Possession
HSV
52%
FCA
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
12 Shots 15
45 Dangerous attacks 50
53 Possession 47
9 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0
17 Successful Headers 14
11 Goal Attempts 12
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
11 Throwins 16
11 Goal Kicks 9
8 Successful Dribbles 11
8 Dribble Attempts 11
86 Ball Safe 84
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

106 Attacks 85

Possession

335 Successful Passes 282
395 Passes 356
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
14 Key Passes 13
15 Long Passes 21

Defensive

2 Saves 2
50 Duels Won 52
13 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 5

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

12 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
44
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic Defender
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Midfielder
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Midfielder
28
Miro Muheim
Miro Muheim Midfielder
9
Robert Glatzel
Robert Glatzel Attacker
23
Albert Grønbæk
Albert Grønbæk
Midfielder67'
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Defender67'
27
Philip Otele
Philip Otele Attacker
14
Rayan Philippe
Rayan Philippe
Attacker46'
Referee : Deniz Aytekin

Starting XI ▼

1
Finn Dahmen
Finn Dahmen Goalkeeper
16
Cédric Zesiger
Cédric Zesiger Defender
31
Keven Schlotterbeck
Keven Schlotterbeck Defender
34
Arthur Chaves
Arthur Chaves Defender
13
Dimitrios Giannoulis
Dimitrios Giannoulis Midfielder
19
Robin Fellhauer
Robin Fellhauer Midfielder
4
Han-Noah Massengo
Han-Noah Massengo
Midfielder80'
27
Marius Wolf
Marius Wolf Midfielder
32
Fabian Rieder
Fabian Rieder Midfielder
20
Alexis Claude-Maurice
Alexis Claude-Maurice Attacker
39
Uchenna Ogundu
Uchenna Ogundu
Attacker90'
30
Anton Kade
Anton Kade Attacker
21
Rodrigo Ribeiro
Rodrigo Ribeiro
Attacker80'
38
Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Otto Stange → Rayan Philippe
7th Substitution
90+5'
90'
Event
Uchenna Ogundu → Alexis Claude-Maurice
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Keven Schlotterbeck
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Fábio Vieira
Penalty disallowed
85'
81'
Event
Cédric Zesiger
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Rodrigo Ribeiro → Anton Kade
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Han-Noah Massengo → Robin Fellhauer
4th Substitution
Event
Giorgi Gocholeishvili → Ransford Königsdörffer
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Albert Grønbæk → Robert Glatzel
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Miro Muheim
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
64'
Event
Ransford Königsdörffer
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
60'
59'
Event
Fabian Rieder
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jordan Torunarigha
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Rayan Philippe → Philip Otele
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Philip Otele
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
41'
22'
Event
Arthur Chaves
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg.
90
Corner Corner
FC Augsburg wins a corner after Giorgi Gocholeishvili concedes.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Uchenna Ogundu replaces Alexis Claude-Maurice.
90
Corner Corner
Marius Wolf from FC Augsburg misses a chance, heading the ball over the bar from the center of the box. The assist came from Fabian Rieder, who delivered a cross following a corner.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Hamburger SV wins a corner after Dimitrios Giannoulis concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Jordan Torunarigha of Hamburger SV headed the ball from the center of the box but missed to the left. The assist came from Fábio Vieira, who delivered a cross after a corner.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Otto Stange replaces Rayan Philippe.
88
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Giorgi Gocholeishvili from Hamburger SV shot with his right foot from outside the box.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
87
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV won a free kick in an attacking position.
87
Update Update
Fouled by Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg.
85
Attempt Attempt
Fábio Vieira's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Albert Sambi Lokonga provided the assist.
85
Update Update
The VAR review confirms no penalty for Hamburger SV.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Finn Dahmen concedes.
83
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Albert Grønbæk of Hamburger SV shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg saves it in the right corner.
81
Update Update
Fábio Vieira of Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cédric Zesiger of FC Augsburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Han-Noah Massengo replaces Robin Fellhauer.
80
Update Update
Cédric Zesiger from FC Augsburg committed a foul.
79
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alexis Claude-Maurice from FC Augsburg shot with his right foot from inside the six-yard box, but it went to the left side.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Robin Fellhauer of FC Augsburg.
79
Update Update
Albert Sambi Lokonga of Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Augsburg: Rodrigo Ribeiro replaces Anton Kade.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after a concession by Keven Schlotterbeck.
77
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Torunarigha's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from William Mikelbrencis.
76
Update Update
Albert Sambi Lokonga won a free kick for Hamburger SV in an attacking position.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg.
74
Attempt Attempt
Michael Gregoritsch from FC Augsburg hits the left post with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side. The assist comes from Marius Wolf, who provided the cross.
74
Corner Corner
FC Augsburg wins a corner after Warmed Omari concedes.
73
Attempt Attempt
Michael Gregoritsch from FC Augsburg had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went to the left. The assist came from Marius Wolf with a cross.
71
Attempt Attempt
Anton Kade's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Rieder from FC Augsburg misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes high. Alexis Claude-Maurice provided the assist.
69
Attempt Attempt
Robin Fellhauer's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
69
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Giorgi Gocholeishvili replaces Ransford Königsdörffer.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Albert Grønbæk replaces Robert Glatzel.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the box following a free kick.
64
Red Card Red Card Important
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV receives a red card.
64
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV commits a foul.
64
Update Update
Anton Kade of FC Augsburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
63
Corner Corner
Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV hits the left post with a header from inside the six-yard box on the left side. The assist comes from Miro Muheim, who provided a cross after a corner.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after a concession by Arthur Chaves.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after a concession by Arthur Chaves.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after a foul by Keven Schlotterbeck.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ransford Königsdörffer scores for Hamburger SV with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the left corner. The match is now 1-1, assisted by Robert Glatzel.
59
Update Update
Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg commits a foul.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Update Update
Rayan Philippe from Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg won a free kick in the attacking area.
58
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV commits a foul.
57
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Marius Wolf is flagged for offside for FC Augsburg.
55
Update Update
Anton Kade from FC Augsburg won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Torunarigha of Hamburger SV.
55
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Torunarigha of Hamburger SV receives a yellow card for a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alexis Claude-Maurice of FC Augsburg had a left-footed shot from the center of the box that missed. Anton Kade provided the assist.
53
Attempt Attempt
Anton Kade from FC Augsburg had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Alexis Claude-Maurice.
50
Update Update
Ransford Königsdörffer of Hamburger SV misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box to the left. The assist was provided by Fábio Vieira.
50
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic of Hamburger SV commits a foul.
50
Update Update
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg won a free kick on the left wing.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Arthur Chaves of FC Augsburg.
49
Update Update
Rayan Philippe of Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
47
Corner Corner
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg attempts a shot with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it is saved in the right corner by Daniel Heuer Fernandes of Hamburger SV. The assist was provided by Fabian Rieder.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Rayan Philippe of Hamburger SV.
46
Update Update
Anton Kade of FC Augsburg won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
Michael Gregoritsch from FC Augsburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Fábio Vieira of Hamburger SV.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Rayan Philippe replaces Philip Otele.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Hamburger SV trailing FC Augsburg 1-0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Hamburger SV 0, FC Augsburg 1.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Hamburger SV trailing FC Augsburg 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Hamburger SV 0, FC Augsburg 1.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Robert Glatzel of Hamburger SV shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but it's close and misses. The assist came from Albert Sambi Lokonga after a fast break.
43
Update Update
Robert Glatzel of Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Philip Otele from Hamburger SV receives a yellow card.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Philip Otele of Hamburger SV.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg.
40
Update Update
Robert Glatzel of Hamburger SV won a free kick in the attacking area.
40
Update Update
Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg won a free kick in defense.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Finn Dahmen concedes.
39
Update Update
Fouled by Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg.
37
Attempt Attempt
Robert Glatzel from Hamburger SV had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. Warmed Omari provided the assist.
37
Update Update
Anton Kade from FC Augsburg won a free kick on the right wing.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Albert Sambi Lokonga against Hamburger SV.
37
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Philip Otele from Hamburger SV shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but Finn Dahmen from FC Augsburg saves it in the top center of the goal.
36
Update Update
Robert Glatzel from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick in the attacking area.
36
Corner Corner
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved in the right corner by Finn Dahmen of FC Augsburg.
34
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Anton Kade from FC Augsburg heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes from Hamburger SV. The assist was provided by Alexis Claude-Maurice.
34
Update Update
Fouled by Keven Schlotterbeck of FC Augsburg.
32
Attempt Attempt
Robert Glatzel from Hamburger SV missed a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
31
Update Update
Offside called against FC Augsburg. Anton Kade is offside.
31
Update Update
Marius Wolf of FC Augsburg is flagged for offside.
29
Update Update
Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
29
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Miro Muheim from Hamburger SV won a free kick on the left wing.
22
Corner Corner
Goal! FC Augsburg takes the lead 1-0 with Arthur Chaves scoring from close range with a right-footed shot into the left corner.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Marius Wolf concedes.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Foul committed by Arthur Chaves of FC Augsburg.
19
Update Update
Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Albert Sambi Lokonga against Hamburger SV.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ransford Königsdörffer's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Robert Glatzel.
14
Attempt Attempt
Anton Kade from FC Augsburg missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box after receiving a cross from Dimitrios Giannoulis.
14
Attempt Attempt
Fábio Vieira's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
13
Update Update
William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Anton Kade of FC Augsburg shot with his right foot from the right side of the box.
12
Update Update
Alexis Claude-Maurice of FC Augsburg won a free kick in defense.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Fabian Rieder from FC Augsburg shoots with his left foot from the center of the box but it goes over the bar.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. William Mikelbrencis of Hamburger SV shot with his left foot from the center of the box after a fast break.
7
Update Update
Fouled by Fabian Rieder of FC Augsburg.
7
Update Update
Philip Otele from Hamburger SV won a free kick in defense.
6
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Rieder's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
5
Update Update
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg won a free kick in defense.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Albert Sambi Lokonga against Hamburger SV.
4
Update Update
Michael Gregoritsch from FC Augsburg misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The assist was provided by Fabian Rieder.
3
Attempt Attempt
Philip Otele's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from William Mikelbrencis, who provided a cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Augsburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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