Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volksparkstadion Fri, 6 Mar - 2:08 PM
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV HSV
0 Winner 1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:08 PM
|
Goal
Christian Kofane - 73'

CONTEXT

The match between Hamburger SV and Bayer 04 Leverkusen has finished with a full-time score of 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Following a tight first half that ended level at 0-0, Leverkusen eventually broke the deadlock to secure the away victory. The game concluded smoothly without any red cards affecting the dynamics on the pitch. Pre-match expectations clearly favored Bayer 04 Leverkusen, who entered the contest with a 48% implied win probability from the market, compared to Hamburger SV's 26.2% and a 25.8% chance of a draw. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these pre-match market expectations. However, the data highlights a significant deviation level of 52% concerning Bayer 04 Leverkusen, indicating that the actual match flow tested their favored status before they ultimately secured the result. The visitors controlled the tempo throughout the match, dominating possession with 63% to Hamburger SV's 37%. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to confirm if the final score was consistent with the quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shift remained squarely in line with baseline expectations. Leverkusen successfully utilized their majority possession to grind out a narrow but entirely predicted win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Storks

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Lechner

4th Official

P. Hüwe

1st Assistant

F. Maibaum

2nd Assistant

Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
VS
Bayer 04 Leverkusen K. Hjulmand
K. Hjulmand
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: L
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: D
FC Union Berlin Rank: W
Heidenheim Rank: W
FC Bayern München Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: W
Werder Bremen Rank: W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: L
RB Leipzig Rank: W
FC Köln Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hamburger SV
26.17%
Draw
25.8%
Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen
48.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
35.24
59.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hamburger SV
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Power Score
35.24
59.72
League Position
11
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hamburger SV Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hamburger SV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hamburger SV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.35
27.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.86
31.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hamburger SV +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hamburger SV
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hamburger SV
vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hamburger SV Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hamburger SV Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Hamburger SV
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hamburger SV HSV Home
1 matches
Bayer 04 Leverkusen B04 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
1.41
xG
1.87
1.87
xGA
1.41

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:21:47+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:08 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadium :
Volksparkstadion
Capacity :
57000
Attendance :
57000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sören Storks
Florian Lechner
Philipp Hüwe
Fabian Maibaum

Statistics

Possession
HSV
40%
B04
60%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 5
10 Shots 14
32 Dangerous attacks 71
37 Possession 63
2 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

18 Throwins 23
15 Goal Kicks 5
15 Successful Headers 17
5 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Hit Woodwork 1
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
17 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Goal Attempts 12
84 Ball Safe 71
5 Substitutions 3
0 Assists 1
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

83 Attacks 144
3 Big Chances Missed 4

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 84
67 Long Passes 45
249 Successful Passes 476
336 Passes 569
25 Successful Long Passes 16
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
6 Key Passes 11

Defensive

13 Interceptions 9
23 Tackles 26
3 Saves 3

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

12 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Exequiel Palacios
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Ezequiel Fernández → Ibrahim Maza
8th Substitution
Event
Albert Sambi Lokonga → Ransford Königsdörffer
7th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Ernest Poku → Montrell Culbreath
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Christian Kofane
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
71'
Event
Malik Tillman → Martin Terrier
5th Substitution
Event
Otto Stange → Rayan Philippe
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Jean-Luc Dompé → Damion Downs
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Jordan Torunarigha → Warmed Omari
4th Substitution
65'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Aleix García
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
William Mikelbrencis → Bakery Jatta
1st Substitution
29'
15'
Event
Ibrahim Maza
Penalty disallowed

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV heads the ball from close range, but it strikes the crossbar.
90
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Ezequiél Fernández comes on to replace Ibrahim Maza.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
William Mikelbrencis from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Albert Sambi Lokonga of Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Exequiel Palacios of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Hamburger SV 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Otto Stange from Hamburger SV takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Janis Blaswich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen makes a save, diving to his left to deny the attempt.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Daniel Elfadli from Hamburger SV attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The assist came from Jean-Luc Dompé, who delivered a cross.
90
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Malik Tillman from Bayer 04 Leverkusen took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Luka Vuskovic of Hamburger SV attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Albert Sambi Lokonga.
90
Update Update
Malik Tillman of Bayer 04 Leverkusen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Janis Blaswich of Bayer 04 Leverkusen makes a brilliant save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal.
90
Update Update
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Otto Stange from Hamburger SV directed a header from within the six-yard area, but it was blocked on the left side. The assist came from William Mikelbrencis, who also used his head to set it up.
87
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Christian Kofane of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
86
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg of Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Malik Tillman committed a foul on a Bayer 04 Leverkusen player.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Jordan Torunarigha allowed the ball to go out.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Fábio Vieira allowed the ball to go out.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Albert Sambi Lokonga comes on to replace Ransford Königsdörffer.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Ernest Poku comes on to replace Montrell Culbreath.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Nicolai Remberg allowed the ball to go out.
78
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push underway. Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hamburger SV after Aleix García allowed the ball to go out.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Malik Tillman is coming on to replace Martin Terrier.
71
Update Update
Edmond Tapsoba of Bayer 04 Leverkusen commits a handball.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Giorgi Gocholeishvili allowed the ball to go out.
67
Update Update
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
67
Update Update
Fábio Vieira committed a foul against Hamburger SV.
67
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Montrell Culbreath of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box but failed to find the target. The setup came from Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a cross.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Jordan Torunarigha replaces Warmed Omari.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Jean-Luc Dompé comes on in place of Damion Downs.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: Otto Stange is coming on to replace Rayan Philippe.
63
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after a deflection off William Mikelbrencis.
60
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Luka Vuskovic from Hamburger SV.
60
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
59
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Update Update
Warmed Omari from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
56
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
55
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Janis Blaswich, the goalkeeper for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Damion Downs.
55
Update Update
Robert Andrich from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Damion Downs from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
54
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Exequiel Palacios of Bayer 04 Leverkusen took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Robert Andrich, who headed the ball after a corner kick.
53
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after a defensive play by William Mikelbrencis.
53
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Edmond Tapsoba from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempts a header from the right side of the six-yard box. However, Daniel Heuer Fernandes, the goalkeeper for Hamburger SV, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Alejandro Grimaldo, who delivered a precise cross.
51
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
50
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
45
Update Update
Close call! Martin Terrier of Bayer 04 Leverkusen heads the ball from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the target. The assist came from Ibrahim Maza, who delivered a well-placed cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Ibrahim Maza has been caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Hamburger SV 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Hamburger SV 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.
45
Update Update
Giorgi Gocholeishvili from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Montrell Culbreath from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
43
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen after Warmed Omari allowed the ball to go out.
40
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Aleix García committed a foul against Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aleix García of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
37
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
36
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV.
34
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Martin Terrier of Bayer 04 Leverkusen was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
33
Update Update
Rayan Philippe from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
32
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort unfolds. Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Daniel Heuer Fernandes from Hamburger SV makes a save, diving to the right corner. The assist came from Ibrahim Maza, who delivered a cross into the box.
30
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ibrahim Maza of Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The chance was set up by Exequiel Palacios during a swift counterattack.
30
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Warmed Omari.
29
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hamburger SV: William Mikelbrencis comes on to replace Bakery Jatta, who has sustained an injury.
29
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
27
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Bakery Jatta from Hamburger SV.
26
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Aleix García from Bayer 04 Leverkusen took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Christian Kofane.
24
Update Update
Giorgi Gocholeishvili from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
24
Update Update
Montrell Culbreath from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Exequiel Palacios from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
22
Update Update
Warmed Omari of Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
20
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Fábio Vieira of Hamburger SV attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area following a corner, but it went just wide.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ransford Königsdörffer from Hamburger SV fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Damion Downs.
19
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Hamburger SV after Edmond Tapsoba allowed the ball to go out.
17
Update Update
Fouled by Jarell Quansah from Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
17
Update Update
Giorgi Gocholeishvili of Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is stopped. Alejandro Grimaldo from Bayer 04 Leverkusen takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected away.
15
Update Update
VAR Review: No Penalty awarded to Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
14
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned a free kick in an offensive position.
14
Update Update
Nicolai Remberg from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Update Update
Jarell Quansah from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Martin Terrier of Bayer 04 Leverkusen strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from the middle of the penalty area, thanks to a cross from Aleix García.
11
Update Update
Christian Kofane from Bayer 04 Leverkusen committed a foul.
11
Update Update
Daniel Elfadli from Hamburger SV has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Rayan Philippe from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Jarell Quansah from Bayer 04 Leverkusen was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
9
Update Update
Ibrahim Maza from Bayer 04 Leverkusen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Warmed Omari from Hamburger SV committed a foul.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Montrell Culbreath from Bayer 04 Leverkusen attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Ibrahim Maza.
8
Update Update
Fábio Vieira from Hamburger SV was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Aleix García committed a foul against Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
2
Update Update
Offside call against Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Christian Kofane has been flagged for being offside.
1
Update Update
Montrell Culbreath from Bayer 04 Leverkusen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Fábio Vieira committed a foul on a player from Hamburger SV.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Bayer 04 Leverkusen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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