Hajduk Split vs Varaždin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 3 May - 4:45 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
3 Winner 1
Varaždin Varaždin
Full Time Sun, 3 May 4:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Abdoulie Sanyang - 90+6'
Rokas Pukstas - 45+1'
Sven Lesjak - 27' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Aleksa Latkovic - 21'
|
Red Card Mario Mladenovski 90+3'

CONTEXT

Hajduk Split defeated Varaždin 3-1 in a closely contested match characterized by even possession at 50% apiece. The home team took a 2-1 lead into halftime, showcasing early dominance before Varaždin's red card in the second half shifted the dynamics. This event distorted the game's structure, enabling Hajduk to add a third goal and secure the win as the stronger side. Despite the equal ball control, Hajduk's performance reflected moderate structural deviation of 7.6%, with efficiency in line with expectations. The outcome aligned with pre-match market assessments, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. Varaždin's numerical disadvantage post-red card limited their recovery chances, highlighting the impact of disciplinary issues in Croatian league play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hajduk Split's 3-1 win featured moderate structural deviation of 7.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: Varaždin's red card significantly impacted second-half play.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Varaždin caused noted second-half distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Kolarić

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Starčević

1st Assistant

S. Rođak-Karšić

2nd Assistant

I. Šantić

4th Official

Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rijeka Rank: 69 D
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 62 W
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 W
Vukovar Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Rijeka Rank: 70 W
Osijek Rank: 63 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 63 W
Gorica Rank: 62 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 62 L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 6 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
92.37%
Draw
7.39%
Away Varaždin
0.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Hajduk Split
-3.24%
Draw
+3.19%
Varaždin
+0.05%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.62
65.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Varaždin
Power Score
72.62
65.57
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
145
309

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.70
32.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.70
30.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hajduk Split -0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin +0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hajduk Split Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hajduk Split
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hajduk Split
vs
Varaždin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hajduk Split Varaždin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hajduk Split 0.18
Varaždin 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hajduk Split Varaždin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hajduk Split 0.01
Varaždin 0.04
Hajduk Split
Varaždin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Hajduk Split had peak pressure around 48'.
  • Hajduk Split started the game with stronger pressure.
Hajduk Split Pressure Varaždin Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Hajduk Split reached the top pressure at 48' (88.51).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
41 matches
Varaždin Varaždin Away
Match Record
26
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
26
Goals
72
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
72
+36
Goal Difference
-36

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:06:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Silić
Croatia
33 T. Silić
R. Brajković
Substitution
Croatia
28 R. Brajković
Z. Šarlija
Substitution
Croatia
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
Austria
15 D. Maresic
D. Melnjak
Substitution
Croatia
17 D. Melnjak
N. Sigur
Croatia
8 N. Sigur
A. Pajaziti
Albania
4 A. Pajaziti
I. Almena Horcajo
Spain
30 I. Almena Horcajo
R. Pukstas
Substitution
United States
21 R. Pukstas
M. Šego
Substitution
Croatia
11 M. Šego
M. Livaja
Croatia
10 M. Livaja
Pitch
J. Silić
Croatia
33 J. Silić
A. Boršić
Croatia
25 A. Boršić
M. Barać
Substitution
Croatia
44 M. Barać
S. Lesjak
Croatia
2 S. Lesjak
F. Maglica
Croatia
23 F. Maglica
D. Puclin
Substitution
Croatia
6 D. Puclin
T. Duvnjak
Substitution
Croatia
8 T. Duvnjak
Iuri Tavares
Cape Verde
38 Iuri Tavares
L. Mamić
Substitution
Croatia
22 L. Mamić
M. Vuk
Substitution
Croatia
7 M. Vuk
A. Latković
Montenegro
10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Poljud
Capacity :
34198
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patrik Kolarić
Ivan Starčević
Sanja Rođak-Karšić
Ivan Šantić

Statistics

Possession
Hajduk Split
49%
Varaždin
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 3
67 Dangerous attacks 67
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

26 Throwins 20
21 Dribble Attempts 24
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
10 Successful Dribbles 15
3 Goal Kicks 6
2 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

109 Attacks 113
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
436 Passes 435
17 Successful Long Passes 36
31 Long Passes 61
88 Successful Passes Percentage 85
10 Key Passes 11
383 Successful Passes 371

Defensive

17 Tackles 21
11 Interceptions 8
44 Duels Won 54
2 Saves 6

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 18
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

5 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
6.88
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Defender
6.98
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Defender
6.83
32
Simun Hrgovic
Simun Hrgovic
Defender61'
6.77
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Defender
6.9
38
Luka Hodak
Luka Hodak
Defender73'
6.49
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Defender
6.95
3
Roko Gabrić
Roko Gabrić
Defender46'
6.73
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder
6.87
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Midfielder
6.99
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Midfielder
7.01
26
Adam Guram
Adam Guram
Midfielder73'
6.54
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Midfielder
7.3
24
Abdoulie Sanyang
Abdoulie Sanyang
Attacker82'
6.76
30
Iker Almena
Iker Almena Midfielder
7
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Attacker
7.12
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Defender
6.96
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
6.83
25
Antonio Borsic
Antonio Borsic Defender
6.6
44
Mateo Barac
Mateo Barac Defender
6.65
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski
Defender46'
6.62
6
David Puclin
David Puclin Midfielder
6.58
15
Silvio Ilinkovic
Silvio Ilinkovic
Midfielder46'
6.93
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.81
12
Petar Bockaj
Petar Bockaj
Defender78'
6.7
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
6.79
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga
Attacker69'
6.46
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.67
18
Paizinho
Paizinho
Attacker82'
6.6
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
6.97
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Attacker
7.11

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+6'
90+3'
Event
Mario Mladenovski
Foul / 1st Redcard
Event
Marko Livaja
Goal disallowed
87'
Event
Abdoulie Sanyang → Rokas Pukstas
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Paizinho → Luka Mamic
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Petar Bockaj → Matej Vuk
8th Substitution
Event
Adam Guram → Michele Sego
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Luka Hodak → Roko Brajkovic
7th Substitution
73'
69'
Event
Ivan Canjuga → Tomislav Duvnjak
5th Substitution
Event
Simun Hrgovic → Dario Melnjak
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Roko Gabrić → Zvonimir Sarlija
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Silvio Ilinkovic → David Puclin
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Mario Mladenovski → Mateo Barac
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Rokas Pukstas
Header / 2nd Goal
45+1'
Event
Zvonimir Sarlija
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
30'
Event
Sven Lesjak
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
27'
21'
Event
Aleksa Latkovic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Roko Brajkovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Niko Sigur
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
8'

Match Commentary

90
Red Card Red Card Important
Mario Mladenovski receives a red card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Petar Bockaj takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Mladenovski receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Iker Almena takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Sven Lesjak's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Update Update
Goal! Abdoulie Sanyang scores, making it 3-1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Sanyang takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
89
Attempt Attempt
Petar Bockaj takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
86
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Marko Livaja.
82
Update Update
Abdoulie Sanyang comes on for Rokas Pukstas.
82
Update Update
Paizinho comes on for Luka Mamic.
81
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja scores with a right-footed shot.
77
Update Update
Petar Bockaj replaces Matej Vuk.
72
Substitution Substitution
Adam Guram is substituted for Michele Sego.
72
Update Update
Luka Hodak comes on for Roko Brajkovic.
69
Update Update
Ivan Canjuga replaces Tomislav Duvnjak.
65
Attempt Attempt
Iker Almena takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Update Update
Simun Hrgovic is on, and Dario Melnjak is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Matej Vuk's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Silvio Ilinkovic replaces David Puclin.
46
Update Update
Silvio Ilinkovic replaces David Puclin.
46
Update Update
Roko Gabric is on, and Zvonimir Sarlija is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rokas Pukstas takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
40
Attempt Attempt
Michele Sego takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Rokas Pukstas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Borsic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Update Update
Own goal by Sven Lesjak levels the score at 1-1.
26
Attempt Attempt
Adrion Pajaziti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Luka Mamic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic scores with a left-footed shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Rokas Pukstas takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Marko Livaja takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Matej Vuk takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
8
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Niko Sigur receives a yellow card.
6
Attempt Attempt
Aleksa Latkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Aleksa Latkovic with his right foot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Patrik Kolaric.

CONCLUSION

Hajduk Split's 3-1 triumph over Varaždin underscored their superiority, bolstered by the visitors' red card that altered the contest's flow after a 2-1 halftime lead. Equal possession belied Hajduk's control, with the result matching market alignment and moderate deviation levels. Absent xG metrics, analysis relies on event-driven shifts, particularly the red card distortion enabling the decisive goal. This victory reinforces Hajduk's status as the stronger team, though Varaždin's resilience until the sending-off merits note in a balanced first half.

Hajduk Split vs Varaždin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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