Hajduk Split vs Osijek Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Poljud Tue, 21 Apr - 4:45 PM

1. HNL

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split

Osijek Osijek

Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 4:45 PM

Round 31 Regular Season

Vladan Bubanja - 56'

CONTEXT

Hajduk Split faced Osijek at home in a tightly contested match that concluded 0-1 in favor of the visitors. Hajduk dominated possession with 64% to Osijek's 36%, yet struggled to create clear scoring chances. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, maintaining parity as both teams traded cautious possession. In the second half, Osijek struck decisively with their lone goal, exploiting Hajduk's inability to convert dominance into threats. Identified as the stronger team, Hajduk's performance highlighted inefficiencies in front of goal against a compact Osijek defense. No red cards disrupted play, and the game proceeded without major disciplinary incidents. The result reflected minimal structural deviation from pre-match assessments, aligning with market expectations where Osijek's victory fell within anticipated bounds. Hajduk's high possession did not translate to expected output, underscoring Osijek's clinical efficiency on counter opportunities.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Osijek's 0-1 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.8 percent.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency finished in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
xG expectations: xG metrics unavailable for expectation evaluation.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in proceedings.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Pajač

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

G. García García

T. Radotic

1.9

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.95

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

31 - 20 - 22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Hajduk Split

0.19%

Draw

5.65%

Osijek

94.16%

Team Power Ranking

32.73

20.78

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Hajduk Split

Osijek

Power Score

32.73

20.78

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score

Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Osijek

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

20.55

30.14

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

30.14

20.55

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Hajduk Split -0.95 Efficiency Index

Osijek +0.95 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Hajduk Split

Osijek

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hajduk Split ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Osijek

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Hajduk Split Osijek

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Hajduk Split Osijek

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Hajduk Split

Osijek

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Hajduk Split

Osijek

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Hajduk Split Osijek

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Hajduk Split Osijek

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Hajduk Split

Osijek

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Hajduk Split had peak pressure around 83'.
Osijek started the game with stronger pressure.

Hajduk Split Pressure Osijek Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Hajduk Split reached the top pressure at 83' (98.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 73 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home

73 matches

Osijek Osijek Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

102

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

102

+28

Goal Difference

-28

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:01:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

33 T. Silić

8 N. Sigur

31 Z. Šarlija

15 D. Maresic

32 ?. Hrgović

4 A. Pajaziti

37 N. Skoko

28 R. Brajković

21 R. Pukstas

9 A. Rebić

11 M. Šego

31 M. Malenica

38 D. Čolina

26 L. Jelenić

33 E. Hasic

39 D. Bukvić

16 O. Petrusenko

6 D. Mejía Moscoso

98 M. Jovičić

21 V. Bubanja

11 N. Omerović

17 A. Jakupovic

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 21, 2026, 04:45 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 31 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Poljud

Capacity :

34198

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Igor Pajač

Statistics

Possession

Hajduk Split

62%

Osijek

38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

4 Big Chances Created 2

5 Shots 4

63 Dangerous attacks 37

64 Possession 36

2 Corners 4

15 Free kicks 7

1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

25 Dribble Attempts 19

16 Successful Dribbles 5

64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26

6 Goal Kicks 11

29 Throwins 15

0 Assists 1

5 Substitutions 5

1 Hit Woodwork 1

1 Penalties 0

Attacking

157 Attacks 83

4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

505 Successful Passes 253

602 Passes 334

69 Long Passes 58

84 Successful Passes Percentage 76

9 Key Passes 8

39 Successful Long Passes 24

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

19 Interceptions 15

21 Tackles 22

67 Duels Won 47

1 Saves 5

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 14

7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 16

2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Igor Pajač

Manager ▼

G. García García Coach

Starting XI ▼

Toni Silic Goalkeeper

6.84

Niko Sigur Defender

6.98

Dario Maresic Defender

6.96

Zvonimir Sarlija Defender

6.93

Simun Hrgovic Defender

6.77

Dario Melnjak

Defender64'

6.8

Adrion Pajaziti Midfielder

6.89

Hugo Guillamón

Midfielder78'

6.94

Ante Rebić Midfielder

7.05

Bruno Durdov

Attacker78'

6.63

Rokas Pukstas Midfielder

7.33

Roko Brajkovic Midfielder

6.96

Iker Almena

Attacker64'

6.99

Noa Skoko Midfielder

6.6

Adam Guram

Midfielder72'

6.74

Michele Sego Attacker

7.02

Substitutes ▼

Dario Melnjak

Defender64'

6.8

Iker Almena

Attacker64'

6.99

Adam Guram

Midfielder72'

6.74

Bruno Durdov

Attacker78'

6.63

Hugo Guillamón

Midfielder78'

6.94

Bench ▼

Ivica Ivusic Goalkeeper

6.75

Dante Stipica Goalkeeper

Ron Raci Defender

6.88

Anthony Kalik Midfielder

6.65

Abdoulie Sanyang Attacker

6.76

Referee : Igor Pajač